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Like much of the Orioles rotation, it's tough to predict that Hammel will improve significantly on his numbers from last year.
The 6-foot-7 right-hander emerged as the ace when healthy in 2012, going 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
The biggest outlier, however, may have been his 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. (He averaged 5.0 and 7.1 in his previous two major league seasons.)
PECOTA sees a regression in 2013: 7-6 with a 4.29 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
"Adding a sinker did wonders for his groundball rate, and he managed to add 1 mph and three inches of rise to his four-seamer in addition to sharper-looking breaking balls," Baseball Prospectus writes. "That's not enough to explain striking out nearly a batter per inning, but he appears to be out of the doldrums he found himself in with Colorado and should be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter going forward."
How do you see it...
February 14, 2013