‘Prince of Persia’ may not get a royal welcome

Just four weeks into the crucial summer movie season, Hollywood is bracing for what could be its third consecutive big budget disappointment.

Walt Disney Studios’ big-screen video game adaptation “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time,” starring Jake Gyllenhaal, probably won’t open in first or even second place over the lucrative four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys. It comes two weeks after a soft launch for Universal Pictures’ costly epic “Robin Hood” and a week after a much-lower-than-expected start for DreamWorks Animation’s “Shrek Forever After.”

“Sex and the City 2,” the romantic comedy sequel, is expected to follow in the footsteps of its 2008 surprise hit predecessor and rule the box office roost, the people said, while “Shrek” is poised to land as runner-up on its second weekend.

The three films are expected to divide up the moviegoing audience, with women most interested in “Sex and the City 2,” men in “Prince of Persia” and families in “Shrek.”

It appears that “Persia” won’t draw enough men, however, to make a good return on its hefty production budget of about $200 million. Several Hollywood executives who have seen tracking surveys estimated that the movie would sell $35 million to $40 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada from Friday through Monday.

That would be in line with the $36-million domestic opening for “Robin Hood,” which cost about the same.

Disney expects “Persia,” which was produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, to rake in more money overseas, though early foreign prospects aren’t particularly bright. Last weekend the film brought in an unimpressive $18 million in 19 foreign countries where it opened early. This weekend it will premiere in 19 other international territories, putting it in most major foreign markets.

“Sex and the City 2,” meanwhile, appears to be on much stronger footing, though it remains to be seen whether overwhelmingly negative reviews will have an effect. Based on polling conducted before most reviews came out, the second movie inspired by the long-running HBO series starring Sarah Jessica Parker is expected to do at least as well as the first, which opened to $57 million on a three-day weekend in 2008.

Hoping to get a jump on this holiday weekend, distributor Warner Bros. opened the sequel Thursday. In its first screenings at midnight, the film sold $3 million worth of tickets, up from $2.5 million for the original. By Memorial Day on Monday, it is expected to take in about $70 million.

Like the first movie, “Sex and the City 2” has generated significant interest among females, making it a so-called fanboy movie for women. Through Wednesday it had sold out more than 600 shows via ticketing websites.

The film also opens in 19 foreign markets this weekend, including Britain, Germany and Brazil. The first “Sex and the City” grossed $262.6 internationally, compared with $152.6 million in the U.S. and Canada.

Warner Bros.’ New Line Cinema unit co-financed “Sex and the City 2,” which cost about $95 million, with partner Village Roadshow Pictures.

DreamWorks Animation and distributor Paramount Pictures are hopeful that “Shrek Forever After” will ride positive reviews and strong buzz from its opening to a solid second weekend. Despite playing in 3-D, which means significantly higher ticket prices, the fourth “Shrek” movie grossed only $70.8 million on its first weekend, a 42% drop from the opening of “Shrek the Third” on the same weekend in 2007.

Those who saw the movie last weekend gave it an average grade of A, however, indicating strong word of mouth. It appears set to take in $50 million to $60 million from Friday through Monday.

ben.fritz@latimes.com