Index projects SoCal growth
Southern California’s economic growth will strengthen in the next three to six months, as a strong job market and consumer confidence will help offset continued weakness in home building, according to an index to be released today.
Cal State Fullerton said its Southern California index of leading economic indicators rose 0.42% in the fourth quarter over the previous quarter, reversing consecutive decreases of 0.11% and 0.14% in the two previous three-month periods.
Five of the index’s seven components rose, led by an increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. Also making positive contributions were the Pacific region consumer confidence index, real money supply, regional nonfarm employment and regional unemployment.
They offset a large decrease in regional building permits -- the result of a struggling home-building sector -- and a change in the interest rate spread, said Cal State Fullerton economist Adrian R. Fleissig, who compiled the index.
The Fullerton index is a Southland version of the Conference Board’s national index of leading economic indicators. The Conference Board’s version edged up 0.1% in January, far below the 0.6% increase in December, held back by further weakness in the ailing housing and auto industries.
The Fullerton index projects economic activity for Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Imperial counties.
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