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Fewer Southern Californians plan to travel over the Fourth of July weekend, auto club says

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High fuel costs are expected to drive down the number of Southern Californians traveling this Fourth of July weekend, but road trips may come roaring back later this summer if gasoline prices continue to fall, as experts predict.

The Automobile Club of Southern California is predicting that 2.9 million Southern Californians will travel at least 50 miles this holiday weekend, a 2.3% drop from the same weekend in 2010.

“High gas prices this spring have started to impact travel, but the good news for consumers is that gas prices are continuing to drop,” said Filomena Andre, the Auto Club’s vice president for travel products and services.

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In fact, Wall Street analysts say crude oil prices could drop back into the low $80s a barrel, pushing retail gasoline prices down to about $3 a gallon nationally and to about $3.40 to $3.50 a gallon in California.

A gallon of regular gas now averages $3.847 in California, according to the auto club. The average price has been dropping steadily since it peaked at $4.25 per gallon in early May. Even so, it remains significantly higher than the year-ago average of $3.14 a gallon.

For someone like John Herink, a 45-cent price drop to $3.40 a gallon would make a difference in his pocketbook. Herink was driving through California from his home in Chandler, Ariz., with his wife and two children in a 34-foot-long motor home that gets about 6 miles to the gallon.

“Gas prices have already dropped since I left Arizona,” he said during a stop on his way to a five-day stay in Yosemite National Park. “I’m already saving on my budget.”

The Auto Club’s prediction Monday of a drop in travel for the holiday weekend is tempered by the fact that it is compared with last year’s Fourth of July weekend, when travel jumped 38.6% from 2009. That was the biggest one-year jump in holiday travel in 10 years.

If gasoline prices continue to drop, Southern California motorists may be tempted to rethink their summer travel plans, said Auto Club spokeswoman Marie Montgomery.

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“It’s definitely a possibility that people will see prices come down, and that may very well help the outlook for summer travel,” she said.

Of the Southern Californians who plan to travel this weekend, nearly 80%, or 2.29 million people, will drive, the Auto Club predicted. San Diego, Las Vegas and San Francisco are the most popular destinations, according to the club.

Meanwhile, oil’s slide continued Monday on a volatile trading day. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, was down 56 cents to $90.61 a barrel after falling as low as $89.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark has fallen 15% in the second quarter.

Brent crude, the European benchmark, was off 17 cents to $104.95 a barrel, having dropped as low as $102.28 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Continuing concerns about the strength of the global recovery and European debt levels, particularly that of Greece, were seen as the biggest factors.

“There are real worries over whether the deal to bail out Greece will hold together. And last week’s announcement about the release of oil from strategic national reserves is definitely having an impact,” said John Kilduff, a partner and energy analyst for Again Capital in New York. “The low $80s for oil are a definite possibility, and that could knock another 40 cents to 50 cents off the price of a gallon of gasoline.”

hugo.martin@latimes.com

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ronald.white@latimes.com

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