Japan economy shrinks at record 15.2 percent pace

Japan’s export-addicted economy shrank during the first quarter at the fastest pace in more than 50 years. But the worst appears to be over, and many economists here say the economy is now beginning to grow.

A collapse in exports, especially of cars and electronics to the United States, led to an annualized 15.2% decline in the gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year, the government said Wednesday. That was after a 14.4% annualized decline from October to December.

This wrenching drop, however, will come to a welcome end this quarter, according to more than 40 economists surveyed by the government-affiliated Economic Planning Assn.

Between April and June, they predicted, the economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.1%.

Rapid reductions in inventory and draconian production cuts in the last six months have set the stage for recovery, the economists said, noting that exports and industrial production rose slightly in March over the previous month. These were the first such upticks in more than half a year.

The first-quarter numbers were a dismal punctuation to what has been a record four consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Among the world’s major economies, Japan’s has shrunk the fastest since last fall.

Japan’s rate of contraction is more than double that of the United States, where GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 6.1% in the first quarter.