VIRGINIA TECH
HOW TO GET TO POSTSEASON
At this stage in Tech's evolution it's not so much a matter of how it'll get to the postseason (it has gone to bowls in 19 consecutive seasons), but rather how good the postseason will be for the Hokies. Games at Clemson, at North Carolina and against Florida State look to be the significant potential stumbling blocks, but Tech is capable of winning all of them, and likely will be favored in two of them (UNC and FSU). If Tech gets to bowl season with one loss, it easily could be in the thick of the Bowl Championship Series national title discussion, but that would, of course, require it to win its fifth Atlantic Coast Conference championship. Given Tech's inexperience in the backfield, unknowns on the offensive line and safety positions and banged up linebackers, it seems more likely that shooting for a goal of a ninth straight 10-win season would be more realistic.
KEY SCHEDULE STRETCH
The last time Tech played Clemson and FSU in the same season was 2007, and the Hokies came away with a win on the road against the Tigers and a victory in Blacksburg against the Seminoles. Neither Clemson nor FSU was as talented in '07 as they should be this season. Tech will hit the meat of its conference schedule during a critical five-game run in October and November when it plays at UNC, against Duke and at Clemson before back-to-back Thursday night contests at Miami (12 days after the Clemson game) and against FSU. Tech has sustained success at UNC (four straight wins in Chapel Hill since joining ACC in '04) and Miami (won three of four games on road since '04), but the trip to Clemson is troublesome given what the Tigers did to the Hokies last season in their two meetings. Perhaps momentum will play a role if Tech can get out of September with a 5-0 record. Tech went undefeated (4-0) in the first month of the season last year for the first time in six years.
STRENGTH
Though James Gayle insists Tech's defensive line is getting slightly undue praise this preseason, there's no denying the Hokies have a ton of ability and quality depth at both end and tackle spots. Gayle, a Bethel High graduate, has All-ACC caliber skills at end. Junior J.R. Collins has similar potential at the other end. While Derrick Hopkins will man one of the starting tackle jobs for a second straight season, his brother, Antoine (back from a torn ACL), and Luther Maddy are interchangeable pieces at the other tackle. Corey Marshall, who plays end and tackle, and defensive end Tyrel Wilson, a Hampton High graduate, have enough experience to make them potential starters if they were on other teams. Zack McCray, who also plays both line positions, and defensive tackle Kris Harley are both highly recruited backups. Tech was 14th in the nation in rushing defense last season (giving up 104 yards per game). With this kind of depth up front, Tech could hold opponents under 100 yards rushing per game for first time since '07 (87 yards per game that season).
CONCERN
Since becoming a member of the ACC, Tech has had more first-team all-conference representatives at kicker and punter (four players) than any other team in the conference, which has to frustrate coach Frank Beamer because he's not really strong at either spot going into the season. The biggest issue is punter, where true freshmen Hunter Windmuller, A.J. Hughes and Brooks Abbott competed in the preseason. That's the very definition of uncertainty. Late last season, Tech was so unsettled at punter it had to resort to using wide receiver Danny Coale at the position … and he was by far Tech's most successful punter, averaging 43.5 yards per punt while neither Scott Demler nor Michael Branthover averaged more than 36.6 yards per attempt. Cody Journell is back at kicker after settling legal transgressions in the offseason. He was strong overall last year, connecting on 14 of 17 field goals, but his longest successful kick was 42 yards. Beyond 29 yards, he made six of nine attempts. What kind of range does he really have?
NEWCOMERS/RESERVES
While the impact of new faces will obviously be felt at punter, there's also going to ample opportunity for true freshmen to step in and get a ton of reps in the backfield and in the secondary. J.C. Coleman will split carries with redshirt freshman Michael Holmes, and freshman Trey Edmunds could find his way on the field in certain situations, or if injuries take a toll on other running backs. In the secondary, cornerback Donaldven Manning enrolled in January, participated in spring practices and established himself right away as a No. 2 option. Donovan Riley has also had a promising preseason, working at No. 2 cornerback. After sitting out last season following his transfer from Georgia, sophomore Brent Benedict has taken over the starting job at right guard. At wide receiver, there's a chance true freshmen Joel Caleb and Joshua Stanford could see significant playing time after making favorable impressions from the start of preseason practice.
ASSISTANT COACH
It wouldn't be too surprising to see outside programs begin to covet secondary coach Torrian Gray for a defensive coordinator role. At 38 years old, his star is definitely still on the rise. For the past 21 consecutive seasons, Tech has had at least one defensive back earn first- or second-team honors in the Big East or ACC. In his first six years at Tech, Gray coached All-ACC selections Brandon Flowers, Victor Harris, Kam Chancellor, Jayron Hosley, Davon Morgan, Kyle Fuller and Eddie Whitley. Gray also has been responsible for the recruitment of seven Tech starters or projected starters in the last four years, including linebacker Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, left guard David Wang, safeties Detrick Bonner and Kyshoen Jarrett and former Hokies Ryan Williams and Hosley. Gray also has brought in promising receiver Joshua Stanford, cornerbacks Davion Tookes and Manning and defensive end Jarontay Jones. Gray nabbed All-American prep cornerback Kendall Fuller and cornerback Brandon Facyson for the class of '13, and '14 class safety Javon Harrison from Kathleen High in Lakeland, Fla. — Gray's high school alma mater.
BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO
By the end of the season, Tech could have a school single-season passing yardage record-setting quarterback in Logan Thomas and All-America caliber defensive standouts in James Gayle and Kyle Fuller. The bad news is all three of those guys are juniors and could take off for the NFL after the season. As much as Beamer may hate the distraction, everything will point to the importance of Oct. 20 and Tech's game at Clemson if the Hokies can somehow get off to a 7-0 start before the game against the Tigers. If Tech remains undefeated through the Clemson game, look out, because the national media will surely jump on the Hokies' bandwagon for the last month of the regular season. Of course, getting to that point without a loss is a big if. Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and UNC are capable of hanging losses on Virginia Tech. A nine-win regular season seems like a reasonable settling point for Tech, but the Hokies have enough talent to — believe it or not — run the table.
VIRGINIA
HOW TO GET TO POSTSEASON
It's pretty simple: win the games they should win. U.Va. will be favored to beat Richmond, Louisiana Tech, Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, likely Miami and possibly Penn State and North Carolina. Last year, U.Va. got it done without having much of a pass rush (only 20 sacks, 90th in the nation in the category), but the Cavaliers were 15th in the nation in third-down efficiency defense (denying offenses a first down on 66.7 percent of third-down opportunities). U.Va. may need to generate more pass rush this season to help a young secondary. With so many quality running backs, grinding it out on the ground could be U.Va.'s modus operandi, but that's not really offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's style. Still, with a potentially dynamic running game, whichever quarterback winds up getting the bulk of the snaps doesn't have to be spectacular. He just has to take care of the ball, and U.Va. should have a good chance to get back to a bowl.
KEY SCHEDULE STRETCH
We'll discover everything we need to know about U.Va. this season before the end of September. Sure, U.Va. can stink up the joint pretty bad in September and still have a decent chance to make a bowl game, but the slate in the first month will let us know if U.Va. has taken a big step forward or if the season will be an uphill climb. After opening with Richmond, U.Va. will play Penn State, at Georgia Tech, at Texas Christian and against Louisiana Tech (not a pushover by any stretch) — all in September. A winning record at the end of the month could propel U.Va. to a special season, especially if that winning record is an unexpected 4-1 or better. The last time U.Va. got out of September with more than two wins was 2007, when it went 4-1 in the opening month, played in the Gator Bowl and finished 9-4.
STRENGTH
There's a wealth of running back options, and yet, there's plenty of room for improvement in the ground game. With senior Perry Jones (915 yards last season), sophomores Kevin Parks (709 yards last season), Clifton Richardson (366 yards last season) from Menchville High and Khalek Shepherd and true freshman Kye Morgan, U.Va. boasts one of the deeper backfields in the conference in terms of players that could viably contribute during the season. Jones also had 48 catches for 506 yards and three touchdowns last season. Coach Mike London and running backs coach Mike Faragalli have talked about getting Jones and Parks — or even other duo combinations of their backfield — on the field together at the same time more this season. Despite all the talent in the backfield, U.Va. still only ranked 51st in the nation last season in rushing offense (162 yards per game), but it was the best showing for the Cavaliers in yards per game since 2004 (242.8 yards per game). With Oday Aboushi and Morgan Moses representing two of the nation's best offensive tackles, more running room should emerge this season.
CONCERN
Coming into preseason practices, cornerback Demetrious Nicholson was the only projected returning starter in a secondary that also included projected first teamers Drequan Hoskey at cornerback and Anthony Harris and Bethel High graduate Rijo Walker at the safety spots. Less than a week later, Hoskey had been replaced by freshman Maurice Canady and Walker had been supplanted by sophomore Brandon Phelps. It's fair to say U.Va.'s secondary scenario has been a fluid situation all preseason. Other than Nicholson, no other defensive back on the roster has had a single start in college. No matter which combination of youngsters U.Va. finally settles upon in its secondary, it'll be interesting to see how they communicate when a situation calls for a zone scheme. Will all the assignments get picked up? Will something fall through the cracks? Is Nicholson, who is only a sophomore, ready to assume a leadership role?
NEWCOMERS/RESERVES
No new arrival in the entire ACC may have come with more buzz than quarterback Phillip Sims, a graduate of Oscar Smith High in Chesapeake who transferred from Alabama. He was deemed immediately eligible by the NCAA based on a family medical hardship waiver as a result of his father's heart surgery and ongoing condition. Sims, a sophomore, will see plenty of reps this coming season. Canady almost immediately caught the attention of the coaching staff in the preseason with his athleticism in the secondary — and the fact he's a 6-foot-2, 180-pound freshman cornerback. Freshman Eli Harold won't start, but he'll factor into the rotation at defensive end and provide a boost in the pass rush. Sophomore Daquan Romero, a Phoebus High graduate, was projected to be a starter at linebacker coming out of the spring. In the offseason, Henry Coley moved ahead of Romero, but Romero still could play a big role. Sophomore linebacker D.J. Hill and freshman cornerback C.J. Moore showed promise in the preseason and could be contributors.
ASSISTANT COACH
Getting Lazor back for another season didn't look like a sure thing in February when he was flirting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers about their vacant offensive coordinator position. The job eventually went to former New York Giants quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan, but it's clear Lazor has an ongoing interest in the NFL. He has seven seasons as an NFL offensive assistant on his resume, including two seasons as the Washington Redskins' quarterbacks coach under former coach Joe Gibbs, and two seasons as the Seattle Seahawks' quarterbacks coach under former coach Mike Holmgren. Considering how intrigued he continues to be by the NFL, Lazor seems like a candidate to bolt Charlottesville any time. He's done encouraging things at U.Va., which finished 37th in the nation in total offense (404.8 yards per game) in 2010 and 46th last season (399.8 yards per game). In the spring, he said his goal for this coming season was to become the nation's best intermediate passing team.
BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO
If U.Va. can get past Penn State, and can slip in a victory either at Georgia Tech, at Texas Christian, at N.C. State, against UNC or at Virginia Tech (snapping that eight-game losing streak would be nice, huh?), the schedule sets up for the Cavaliers to claim at least eight wins again. That's assuming U.Va. doesn't stub its toe in any of the games it's supposed to win. With either returning starter Michael Rocco, who completed 61 percent of his passes last season for 2,671 yards, 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, or Sims at quarterback along with the backfield depth, U.Va. has the potential to have a very balanced offense if the receiving corps steps up. On the other hand, if the secondary doesn't mature and no pass rush develops, it might not matter how well-equipped the offense is because the defense could get in the habit of giving up 300-yard passing games. Given the questions that must be answered, a six-win regular season is the most likely.
— By Norm Wood
OLD DOMINION
HOW TO GET TO POSTSEASON
Keep doing what they've done. In just the third season of football and first year as a full member of the best FCS league in the country, all Old Dominion did was go 10-3 and come one play shy of winning the league championship. The Monarchs were among the national leaders in scoring and total offense, thanks in large part to a true freshman quarterback who was better and more poised than anybody dreamed. If Taylor Heinicke, now a worldly sophomore, approaches the kind of season he had a year ago, with the personnel at his disposal the 'Narchs are a lock to average 30-some points and 400-plus yards per game again. That they did so with a defense that was statistically in the bottom half of the country speaks to the effectiveness of their offense and special teams. Incremental defensive improvement all but guarantees a second consecutive playoff berth.
KEY SCHEDULE STRETCH
The schedule gods smiled on ODU in its final season of FCS football. Eight games in the state of Virginia. No road trip north of Baltimore. Mid-season bye. No daunting stretches, no matter how much the coaches try to convince you otherwise. The closest thing to a gauntlet the 'Narchs face is the three-week October stretch of Villanova, Towson and Delaware. 'Nova almost certainly will be better than last year's 2-9, and might be a trap game, given that Towson is the following week. But the 'Narchs get 'Nova and Delaware at home, which should help. New Hampshire and Richmond come at the front end of that three-game span. The Wildcats have become playoff fixtures, and UR was and should be better than last year's 3-8 mark. But UNH is at Ballard Stadium (noon in mid-September? Say hello to Indian summer, you unsuspecting New Englanders), and ODU has a bye week after Richmond. William and Mary at home and James Madison on the road to end the season are no picnics. If the 'Narchs have six wins heading into the final two weeks, they need to win one to wrap up a playoff berth. If they have just six wins at that point, they won't be happy.
STRENGTH
Offensive playmakers everywhere you look. The 'Narchs averaged 36.7 points per game last season. They return four of the top six rushers, six of the top eight receivers and nine guys who scored touchdowns. They're led, of course, by Heinicke, the sophomore triggerman who seems built for this offense. He's accurate, elusive, a little quicker than you think and nearly always makes good decisions. His primary targets are All-CAA Nick Mayers (62 catches, 11 TD), Antonio Vaughan (47, 4) and Larry Pinkard (37, 9). There are a wealth of options at running back, as well, starting with 210-pound Angus Harper (633 yards, 4.5 avg) and Colby Goodwyn (581, 4.5). Goodwyn (Phoebus) was slowed by injuries at mid-season, but should be healthy. The Monarchs also get back sophomore Tyree Lee (Phoebus), whose freshman season was cut short by a torn meniscus in his knee. Harper and Goodwyn also are capable pass catchers. Elsewhere, it's hard to overlook punter Jonathan Plisco (Woodside). The All-American averaged 46.1 yards per kick and had 20 punts of at least 50 yards. Heinicke also proved himself an effective punter, when ODU chose to quick-kick in attempts to pin opponents.
CONCERNS
The defensive line. Yes, the Monarchs return all-conference nose guard Chris Burnette (49 tackles, 8 TFL), but they must replace tackle Ronnie Cameron, the CAA Defensive POY, and end Ed McClam. The 'Narchs hope that Burnette will be able to do for his mates what Cameron and McClam did for him — occupy blockers and permit those around him to make plays when he can't make them himself. Redshirt senior tackle Erik Saylor (20 tackles, 4.5 TFL) is the most experienced returning lineman. Redshirt sophomore Dominique Guinn-Bailey (15 tackles) and junior Nate Barnes (Heritage) were in the tackle rotation last season. To add depth and experience along the front, the Monarchs moved Kai Blanco from tight end to defensive tackle and Alex Arain from linebacker to end. Problems up front were illuminated in the playoff loss to Georgia Southern and in the first half against James Madison.
NEWCOMERS/RESERVES
Both lines and the defensive secondary will feature some new faces. Connor Mewbourne, a redshirt freshman from Virginia Beach, is in the mix to replace three-year starter Jeremy Hensley at center. D.J. Morrell, a 6-6, 300-pound lineman from Connecticut, had to sit out last season after transferring in from junior college due to an NCAA paperwork issue. Redshirt sophomore offensive lineman Mike Justice technically isn't a newcomer, but he sat out 2011 after playing five games as a true freshman because of injuries. Safety Andre Simmons transferred in from Vanderbilt after coaches were satisfied that his arrest for burglary was an aberration. Cornerback T.J. Cowart is healthy after missing the last nine games a year ago with a wrist injury. Cornerback Reggie Owens played only one game last season and should figure into the rotation. Linebacker Caleb Taylor, a Phoebus grad, transferred in from Virginia and is eligible immediately. Defensive end Preston Smith will get the opportunity to be an every-down player after a good spring.
ASSISTANT COACH
When the head coach fires the defensive coordinator three days after a tremendously successful season that includes a playoff appearance, it's not hard to figure that the new guy is under the microscope. Bill Dee is no stranger to football, or pressure, but he's learning about elite Division I FCS football on the fly. Dee, the architect of the Phoebus High dynasty, had just concluded his first year at Old Dominion, as offensive line coach, when Wilder tabbed him to replace Andy Rondeau last December. Dee didn't so much overhaul the defense as simplify it. Points of emphasis were pursuit and tackling; more aggression and wrapping up, less reading and thinking. Players seem to have taken to the approach thus far. After Dee left Phoebus in 2008, he spent the next two years at Christopher Newport. It'll be interesting to watch him match wits against veteran coaches and guys he's admired, such as Jimmye Laycock and Zbig Kepa at W&M, Mickey Matthews and Jeff Durden at JMU, Andy Talley and OC Sam Venuto at Villanova and K.C. Keeler at Delaware.
BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO
Best case: Heinicke plays like, well, Heinicke. The running backs and receivers remain healthy. The offensive line gels. Special teams continue to create headaches, flip the field and result in more offensive possessions. The defense improves incrementally. Shoot, just a 15-percent improvement would reduce opponents' scoring to under 24 points per game and fewer than 330 yards per game. That would take some heat off of the offense to win shootouts. Such a formula will get them nine wins, which would guarantee a playoff berth. Worst case: What happened in the second quarter of the UMass game. When three-year starting QB Thomas DeMarco went down with an ankle injury, it left the position in the hands of an untested rookie. If Heinicke were to get hurt, it's hard to imagine his backup pulling off a similar run. The O-line is erratic, which will hurt the run game more than the Monarchs' quick passing attack. The D-line gets run on. ODU gets everyone's best shot and loses a couple of games it shouldn't.
WILLIAM AND MARY
HOW TO GET TO POSTSEASON
William and Mary made the playoffs two of the previous three years, so there are coaches, and players, who know what's required. Knowing and doing, however, are horses of a different stripe. First order of business is identifying a consistent, productive quarterback and a couple of playmakers at wide receiver. Unlike any number of Jimmye Laycock's previous teams, offense was the issue for last year's 5-6, bottom-half squad. The closest thing to a star player the Tribe has is cornerback B.W. Webb, but he can be marginalized. Without a transcendent figure, a truly collective effort is needed. The offense must average at least 24 points per game. Kicker Drake Kuhn must extend his range a bit and improve his accuracy. The defense must force a few more turnovers and the team record a positive turnover margin. Details and as few as three or four plays per game can make the difference.
KEY SCHEDULE STRETCH
The Towson-Delaware exacta in mid-September will provide an early glimpse into the Tribe's conference, and national, prospects. But given the strength of the league and the fact that nobody is going unscathed, the four-game stretch of James Madison, Maine, New Hampshire and Old Dominion, from mid-October to mid-November, is the test. All four teams made the playoffs last year. JMU, New Hampshire and ODU are on the road, with only Maine at home. And don't think it escaped the Black Bears, playoff quarterfinalists last year, that they're the Tribe's homecoming opponent. Fortunately, the Tribe gets a bye after the JMU game and before the three-week gauntlet. JMU and Old Dominion present challenges in terms of atmosphere and talent. Both are among the national leaders in attendance, with JMU's year-old expanded stadium an FCS showplace. New Hampshire gets the Tribe at home, though Sean McDonnell hasn't beaten W&M in nine tries. Law of averages?
STRENGTH
Several areas, but we'll go with the defensive secondary. Senior cornerback B.W. Webb (Warwick) is first-team All-CAA and one of the best in FCS. He has 37 starts, by far the most of any Tribe player. There's depth and talent at safety with senior Brian Thompson, junior Jerome Couplin III and sophomore Ivan Tagoe. Thompson was second-team all-conference at strong safety in 2011, with 68 tackles. Couplin started seven games at free safety last season, with 47 tackles. Tagoe played 10 games last year and started against ODU. Those guys, along with underclassmen DeAndre Houston-Carson and Jesse McNeal III, give defensive coordinator Scott Boone and new secondary coach Tom Clark, the Tribe's former defensive coordinator, much flexibility. Grouped with a veteran bunch at linebacker, W&M's back seven is in good shape.
CONCERNS
Quarterback and wide receiver. The Tribe's at-times anemic passing attack last season was due to injuries and inconsistency at both positions. Passing game issues in the Tribe's system are as often a result of a receiver missing a read as a quarterback missing a throw. W&M experienced plenty of both. The QB battle likely comes down to upperclassmen Brent Caprio and Michael Graham. Both started games last season. Graham set himself apart in the middle of the season until a broken finger shelved him. Caprio finally developed some comfort and traction at the end of the season. Notably, he led the game-winning, last-second drive at Richmond in the season finale. At receiver, talented Ryan Moody will try to remain healthy for an entire season. Sophomore Tre McBride tries to get his decision making and route running to catch up to his physical gifts. Behind them, there is little experience, but much opportunity.
NEWCOMERS/RESERVES
Redshirt freshman DeAndre Houston-Carson will line up at cornerback opposite Webb, guaranteeing that he will see more throws than his all-conference compadre. Houston-Carson, 6-1 and 190 pounds, was on the travel squad all last season, but didn't play a snap. Coaches and players have touted him since he arrived on campus. He was a two-way, all-district player from Woodford and Massaponax High. Redshirt freshman Luke Rhodes could see action at outside linebacker, where he is penciled in behind starter Airek Green. Rhodes, 6-2 and 230 pounds, was a two-time 3A all-state pick in Pennsylvania. Redshirt freshman Jared Templeton could figure into the rotation at defensive tackle. The coaches like redshirt freshman safety Jared Velasquez from Fairfax, but he'll have a hard time getting on the field with the folks in front of him. He could see time as a punt returner. The Tribe typically has few freshmen or redshirt freshmen as every-down players, though wide receiver Tre McBride played last season as a true freshman — as much a reflection of depth at wide receiver as his ability.
ASSISTANT COACH
Longtime offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach Zbig Kepa has much work ahead. He must prepare a relatively untested group of receivers, and formulate game plans and call plays tailored to quarterbacks with their own skill sets. Kepa, in his 29th season, has just one proven receiver in Ryan Moody, though Moody (6 games, 10 catches last season) has been plagued by injuries throughout his career. Gifted sophomore Tre McBride (14 catches) may have played last season before he was ready. Senior backups Joey Brady and C.J. Thomas had two catches between them in 2011. In the Tribe's system, playing receiver is as much mental as physical, with receivers expected to make adjustments based on coverages and play calls. At quarterback, Brent Caprio and Michael Graham have different strengths. Neither separated himself in the spring, meaning summer camp performance and evaluations are critical. Though to be fair, at least three quarterbacks have played significant snaps each of the past two seasons because of injury and inconsistency — further complicating Kepa's life.
BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO
Best case: Graham and/or Caprio do a passable Mike Callahan imitation — especially the TD-to-INT ratio. Moody remains healthy, and at least one other receiver emerges. The Tribe's multiple backs combine for 1,500 yards rushing. On defense, opposing passers challenge Webb too often. The speedy, versatile back seven complements the front four, allowing the Tribe to blitz when it wants, not as the only means of generating pressure. Worst case: No quarterback emerges, leaving the offense as vanilla as Amish nightlife. Somebody again sticks pins in the Moody voodoo doll and the receiver corps reprises 2011. Injuries and inconsistency affect the defensive front four. The Tribe's smallish linebacker corps gets handled by opposing lines and cannot shed blocks. The defensive backs get worn down by constant run support, except when they find themselves chasing receivers that have snuck behind them. Early losses to Towson and Delaware leave them disheartened in advance of a difficult four-game stretch at the end of the season.
HAMPTON UNIVERSITY
HOW TO GET TO POSTSEASON
Not this time around. The NCAA red-flagged the Pirates for chronically underperforming on the Academic Progress Rate (APR), which measures player retention and progress toward a degree. The program had been docked scholarships in prior years, and a sub-standard number last spring resulted in the NCAA banning the Pirates from postseason in 2012. The MEAC followed suit and declared the Pirates ineligible for the conference title.
KEY SCHEDULE STRETCH
First, a hearty "Job well done" to the athletic administration for this season's 10-game schedule. They honestly couldn't find a third non-conference opponent? Or maybe they wanted to emulate the Ivy League. Either way, weak. That said, the Pirates' schedule appears front-loaded, or perhaps mid-loaded. They host a ranked team in Old Dominion the second week, then face three of the top four teams in the MEAC preseason poll — Florida A&M, Bethune-Cookman and preseason fave Norfolk State. That's followed by a quick turnaround, Thursday roadie at N.C. Central — televised by the World Wide Leader. But HU gets a bye before Bethune-Cookman and another bye before Norfolk State (thanks, 10-game schedule). They also get ODU, Bethune and Norfolk State at home. Because of the MEAC schedule rotation, they also miss South Carolina State, which was picked to finish second. The Pirates' new offense and untested areas face stiff tests early.
STRENGTH
Linebacker, without question. The Pirates have two all-conference candidates in Delbert Tyler and Lyndell Gibson. The third starter, middle linebacker DeVonte' Hawkins, apparently gave the rest of the defense the day off versus Morgan State last season, logging a remarkable 24 tackles. Tyler was the Pirates' leading tackler last season with 110 total, 41 solo, and made second-team All-MEAC. Gibson, a Virginia Tech transfer, had a team-high 52 solo tackles (108 total) and 14 tackles for loss. They are fast, experienced and solid tacklers. They will be asked to anchor a defense that last season finished in the bottom half of the MEAC against the rush (157.5 ypg) and total defense (341.4 ypg). It won't hurt that there's some continuity on the staff, since Keith Goganious enters his third year as defensive coordinator.
CONCERNS
The Pirates need people to catch the ball, since they're implementing the Air Raid system. Senior Javaris Brown (44 catches, 10.5 avg., 2 TDs) is the only experienced receiver, and he, like everyone else on the roster, is new to the scheme. HU lost three of its top four receivers from last season and has a bunch of holes to fill. The sophomore trio of Leon Shorter, Jorrian Washington and Andre Griffin are penciled into the early two-deep, but they totaled just four receptions among them last season. The Pirates also have a handful of freshmen and redshirt freshmen wide receivers who could earn playing time. They vary from small and quick (5-9, 170-pound J'Rod Beard and 5-9, 180-pound Rashad Riddick) to tall and rangy (6-4, 200-pound Matrick Belton and 6-5, 220-pound SeQuan Gill). The Air Raid also includes running backs in the passing game. The Pirates appear in good shape there, since lead back Antwon Chisholm caught 29 passes for 192 yards last season.
NEWCOMERS/RESERVES
Want to engage head coach Donovan Rose? Mention strong safety Carvin Johnson. The 6-2, 205-pound junior transfer from Michigan will have an immediate impact and already established himself as a leader on defense. He played in eight games for the Wolverines before leaving the team in November, recording 14 tackles, and worked on special teams. Expect junior college transfer Najee Tyler to get a long look at quarterback. Much opportunity at wide receiver, where the Pirates graduated their top two pass catchers. Look for underclassmen Leon Shorter, Jorrian Washington and Andre Griffin (Phoebus) in the rotation. Plenty of opportunity along the defensive line, as well, where senior Daryell Walker (19 tackles) from Bethel is the most experienced player. Underclassmen Alveron Wright and Charles Owens are penciled into the two-deep, along with promising freshmen Nigel Cawthon (6-5, 295) and Terrell Stewart (6-3, 335).
ASSISTANT COACH
Earnest Wilson is the Pirates' fourth offensive coordinator in four years, but he is productive, imaginative and likely to stick. A disciple of the Hal Mumme/Mike Leach Air Raid system, he turned Jackson State's 1987 Buick station wagon of an offense into the No. 1 statistical group in the Football Championship Subdivision in just two years. He has coached at a lot of places, including Division II and D-III schools and Arena League ball. Last season, Jax State led in total offense (490.91) and was ninth in scoring offense (35.82), setting a slew of school records in the process. He aims to do similar things at HU. He doesn't have a big-time quarterback or experienced receivers, but he believes the present personnel give the Pirates a chance to succeed right away. The Pirates were solid on offense last year, but had trouble making plays when necessary. The players are becoming increasingly comfortable with the system and think it will propel them to the top of the MEAC.
BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO
Best case: Wilson's new offense takes hold. Travis Champion, or one of the other quarterbacks, get the ball to the playmakers. The new scheme catches early opponents off guard, before they can adequately scout and compile a book on the offense. The defensive line plays opposing offensive lines to a push, allowing potentially excellent linebackers and secondary to make tackles. The team cuts in half last season's ridiculous penalty yardage (115.1 per game). Kicker Taurean Durham is money inside 40 yards. Punter Jordan Stovall gooses his average a bit and is better at pinning opponents. A fast start and early wins provide momentum for the remainder of the season. Worst case: The offense sputters early and takes time to produce. The young receivers play tight. The defensive line gives up far too much at the point of attack. The Pirates lose a few games early that they might have won later in the season, when everyone was finally on the same page. But those early losses become discouraging, without the promise of postseason or a conference championship.
CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT
HOW TO GET TO POSTSEASON
Two ways: Win the USA South Conference title again (which creates its own special brand of dyspepsia among certain league honchos, who would like the Captains gone yesterday); or, defeat the three quality non-conference opponents to start the season and tie for the league title with, say, one loss. Without the conference title and accompanying automatic playoff berth, a 9-1 record should be sufficient to earn an at-large bid. CNU has made the playoffs eight of its 11 years of existence, winning the title outright or the tiebreaker for the automatic bid seven times. The Captains are on a 12-game league winning streak, dating back to 2010. They return at least 20 guys who started games on last year's unbeaten conference team, including all three quarterbacks, and playmakers on both sides of the ball. If they don't make the playoffs again, it will be a disappointment.
KEY SCHEDULE STRETCH
Out of the chute and October. The Captains open at home against national power Salisbury and then travel to defending ODAC champ and league favorite Hampden-Sydney. The Sea Gulls are preseason top-10 in the D III polls, and QB Dan Griffin was a 1,000-yard passer and rusher last season. Hampden-Sydney welcomes Tennessee QB transfer Nash Nance, whose name sounds more Hampden-Sydney, or Dashiell Hammett, than Volunteer. October includes Ferrum and LaGrange at home and Averett and N.C. Wesleyan on the road. Ferrum always has athletes. The Captains never have faced LaGrange, a new member of the USA South, and are unsure what to expect. CNU has taken good teams to Danville and had a tough time with Averett, and Wesleyan has enough talent to challenge for the title.
STRENGTH
Depth almost everywhere. The Captains came out of spring workouts believing that they might have their deepest team ever in 2012. Start at quarterback, where they have three players who started games last season: seniors Christian Woelfel-Monsivais and Aaron Edwards, and junior Lyndon Garner. All-conference runner Markeese Stovall (970 yards, 11 TD) and second-leading rusher Marcus Morrast (556 yards) are back. The coaches felt good enough about the depth at running back that they moved productiv Evan Moog (519 yards, 8 TD) to linebacker. He could play on both sides of the ball. Juniors Carus Boone and Jarod Lindner lead the offensive line, Justin Navarro the defensive line. Corners Tyshawn Harris and Marvin Mills are solid and experienced.
CONCERNS
Placekicker, middle linebacker and tight end on the field, a handful of new faces off the field. Stephen Denuel handled the bulk of the kicking duties last year and made 16 of 18 field goals. Sophomore Mason Studor and junior Nick Henderson are the leading candidates to replace him. The Captains must replace all-conference middle linebacker and leading tackler Mike King, though senior Daniel Bowen stepped in and did a decent job when King was injured. Kelchner has four new assistant coaches, including defensive coordinator Justin Wood, and a new trainer (hey, football coaches get antsy if their parking spots are changed). Wood was an All-America linebacker with the Captains and has been with the program the past two years, but this is his first year as coordinator.
NEWCOMERS/RESERVES
As mentioned before, underclassmen Mason Studer and Nick Henderson will battle to replace kicker Stephen Denuel. Justin Ricks (Hampton) was hurt much of last season, but will be counted on at free safety. Senior Travis Bruns backed up steady center Michael Meredith last year and has a leg up on the starting job. Tight end Chris Coiner's role should expand this season. He caught 14 passes, two for touchdowns, last year. Senior Dorion Jackson and juniors A.J. Schmetzer and Dequan Chatmon will challenge for playing time at outside linebacker.
KEY UNIT
The Captains' front four on defense has some experience, but is still young. They lost linemen Malcolm Jones and Paul Bresnan off of a group that was third in the USA South in total defense (323.9 ypg) and third against the rush (139.5 ypg). Junior end Justin Navarro (25 tackles, 5.5 TFL) appears to be the leader. Sophomores Hakeem Garner and Chris Roth also figure into the end rotation after getting playing time last season. Junior Kendal Rivers and soph Shaun Copening will be in the mix at tackle. Expect a lot of guys to get looks in preseason camp, and the Captains may rotate as many as 8-10 players along the line in games.
BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO
Best case: A quarterback separates himself among the three candidates and remains healthy, as does Stovall. The defensive line develops into a productive unit, allowing the linebackers to get to plays and make tackles. A kicker as efficient as Denuel emerges. The Captains get off to a quick start, winning at least two of their three non-conference games, providing a springboard into the league race. Nine wins almost certainly gets them into the playoffs for the ninth time in 12 years. Eight wins might do it as well, if they're the right eight wins. Worst case: No quarterback stands out, leaving Kelchner and the staff with a weekly decision on who and how many to play. The Captains get stuffed in their first couple of non-league games, shaking their confidence. Funny thing is, CNU experienced something close to a worst-case scenario last season, with quarterback injuries and losing Stovall at the end of the season. Yet the Captains still went unbeaten in the conference and made the playoffs, with a fairly young team.