When actors vote for awards, you can be sure of two things: They're going to love movies with sprawling casts (more parts = more work!) and showy roles that require physical transformation will typically beat subtler performances.
Those precedents were borne out again today when the
The inclusion of "Dallas Buyers Club" over the ensembles from
Conversely, you might be able to name many of the actors from "The Butler," but perhaps not for the right reasons. The film's bizarrely cast parade of presidents contained some truly awful performances (
As for the other movie categories ...
Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Analysis: We've written at length about the fierce competition in this category. Someone is going to be left out. Here it was Robert Redford for his remarkable solo turn in "All Is Lost." I'd still expect to see academy voters nominate him, though, probably at the expense of Hanks or Whitaker. The other three appear locks.
Judi Dench, "Philomena"
Analysis: These are also your Oscar nominees.
Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Analysis: Nominations for Bruhl, outstanding as race car driver Niki Lauda in "Rush," and the late, great Gandolfini come as welcome surprises. Gandolfini has been building momentum in this category, winning several critics' group prizes for his turn as Julia Louis-Dreyfus' sweet suitor in "Enough Said." The fact that television actors vote for SAG Awards certainly didn't hurt his chances, given his landmark work on
The omission of Hanks' turn as Walt Disney in "Banks" is a bit of a surprise, particularly given how strong the movie played at screenings for SAG nominating committee members. (SAG Awards nominations are voted on by randomly selected groups of 2,300 members, one voting for movies and one for television.) Make no mistake, though: "Banks" isn't in any danger at the Oscars. It remains a best picture lock.
Lupita Nyong’o, "12 Years a Slave"
June Squibb, "Nebraska"
Analysis: As in the lead actress category, academy voters may well reward this same set of nominees.