SAG Awards 2014: Analysis: Winners should keep those speeches handy

Emma Thompson shimmied. Rita Moreno sang. Matthew McConaughey traveled to Neptune.

And SAG voters did pretty much as expected. Since the actors branch comprises nearly 20% of the Motion Picture Academy’s membership, is it safe to assume the SAG Awards winners will need to make additional room on their mantels come March 2? The academy hasn’t always followed SAG’s lead, but this year we’re guessing Oscar voters will add their stamp of approval across the board.

Let’s look at the SAG winners and size up their Oscar prospects in the new light:

SAG Awards 2014: Red carpet arrivals | Show highlights | Quotes from the stars

FILM ENSEMBLE

The winner: “American Hustle”

History: The movie that won this award went on to win the best picture Oscar nine of 18 years. (The ensemble prize wasn’t awarded in 1994, the SAG Awards’ first year.)

Will history repeat itself?: If “American Hustle” goes on to win the Producers Guild award Sunday night, then the odds will tilt heavily in its favor to win the Oscar as well. (Because the PGA uses the same preferential ballot as the academy, it’s a more accurate Oscar indicator. The last six PGA winners have gone on to win the Oscar, coinciding with the academy’s expansion of the best picture ballot.)

As for its SAG win, “Hustle” clearly has a lot of love among actors, what with its four acting Oscar nominations too. Safe to say “Hustle” writer-director David O. Russell won’t have too much trouble attracting talent to his next movie. He has become the most reliable way for an actor to win an Oscar nomination these days.

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LEAD ACTOR

The winner: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

History: SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 15 of 19 times, including the last nine years. (The last SAG lead actor winner not to take the Oscar: Johnny Depp, “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl.”)

Will history repeat itself: Yes. Coming into the nominations, the lead actor race was crowded and competitive enough to leave out several deserving contenders, including Robert Redford (“All Is Lost”), Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips”) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Her”). But now that the dust has settled, McConaughey has emerged as a clear favorite, not only for his respected performance in “Dallas,” but also for the other exemplary work (HBO’s “True Detective,” his cameo in “The Wolf of Wall Street”) that voters are watching right now.

LEAD ACTRESSThe winner: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

History: SAG and the academy have matched 13 of 19 years.

Will history repeat itself?: Absolutely. Has Blanchett lost anything this year? Anything? No? Not even her marbles through this red-carpet circus? We didn’t think so.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

The winner: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

History: SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 11 times in 19 years.

Will history repeat itself?: Yes. Leto has now won SAG, the Golden Globe and awards from the Los Angeles and New York film critics groups. Academy voters will follow suit, which was a given even before the Oscar nominations were announced. The strong showing of “Dallas Buyers Club” across the board -- in addition to McConaughey and Leto, the movie won Oscar noms for picture, editing, screenplay and makeup and hair -- indicates a broad level of support throughout the academy for the film. There’s no way Leto won’t be among the beneficiaries Oscar night.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The winner: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

History: SAG winner has gone on to take the Oscar 12 of 18 times. (Kate Winslet won the category in 2009 for “The Reader,” but was nominated -- and won -- the Oscar for lead actress.)

Will history repeat itself?: Yes. Nyong’o has carried herself with grace and dignity throughout the awards season and is arguably the most deserving of the nominees for her stunning turn as Patsey, the slave on the receiving end of obsession and cruelty from Michael Fassbender’s plantation owner in “12 Years.”

While Lawrence, at 23, is the youngest three-time acting Oscar nominee, she just won an Academy Award last year for “Silver Linings Playbook” and some voters will resist rewarding her with another so soon. There’s also a fair number of people who believe Lawrence was too young to be playing a loose cannon Joisey housewife, even if she rocked “Live and Let Die” in ways that Guns N’ Roses never imagined.

ALSO:

PHOTOS: SAG 2014 red carpet arrivals

PHOTOS: SAG Awards 2014 winners

SAG 2014: Complete list of winners and nominees