Oscars 2013: Heatmeter

Jan. 11, 2013 4:29 PM PT

This week’s Oscar nominations brought surprises
Chief among them: the snubbing of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow, directors of “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty,” for director, and the multi-category dominance of upstarts “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Amour.” Those two films collectively nabbed nine nominations, including best picture and director for each of them — and gave a huge boost to these previously on-the-bubble contenders. Meanwhile, “Silver Linings Playbook” nabbed nominations in all seven major categories (picture, director, screenplay and all four acting categories, the first time in more than 30 years a movie has done so).

How big was the shake-up?
The Times’ Data Desk’s HeatMeter system — a snapshot of the current state of the awards race based on a mathematical system of points allotted for each award or nomination — offers a vivid portrait. Coming into the Academy Awards noms, “Amour” had an overall picture score (a compilation of all awards affiliated with the film over the season) that put it behind “Argo” in sixth place. “Beasts,” which had not gotten much love from critics or other groups, was well out of the running down in 16th place. Meanwhile, “Silver Linings” was in fourth place, far behind front-runner “Lincoln.”

After the Oscar noms?
“Amour” has pulled ahead of “Argo” into fifth place. “Beasts” has entered the Top 10. And “Silver Linings” has leapfrogged to No. 2.

— Steven Zeitchik, Doug Smith and Oliver Gettell

Here’s a telling before-and-after look at the HeatMeter Top 20.

OVERALL PICTURE SCORES
Before Oscar nominations*
1. “Lincoln” 209
2. “Zero Dark Thirty” 180
3. “The Master” 143
4. “Silver Linings Playbook” 133
5. “Argo” 114
6. “Amour” 96
7. “Les Misérables” 85
8. “Django Unchained” 76
9. “Frankenweenie” 49
10. “The Deep Blue Sea” 47
11. Life of Pi” 46
12. The Sessions” 41
13. “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” 35
13. “Holy Motors” 35
15. “Rust and Bone” 32
16. “Beasts of the Southern Wild” 27
17. “Flight” 24
17. “Hitchcock” 24
17. “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen” 24
17. “The Impossible” 24

OVERALL PICTURE SCORES
After Oscar nominations*
1. “Lincoln” 2962. “Silver Linings Playbook” 235
3. “Zero Dark Thirty” 218
4. “The Master” 186
5. “Amour” 160
6. “Argo” 144
7. “Les Misérables” 129
8. “Django Unchained”106
9. “Life of Pi” 89
10. “Beasts of the Southern Wild” 82
11. “Frankenweenie” 59
12. “The Sessions” 53
13. “Flight” 48
13. “The Deep Blue Sea” 47
15. “The Impossible” 44
16. “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” 35
16. “Holy Motors” 35
18. “The Gatekeepers” 34
19. “Rust and Bone” 32
20. “Searching for Sugar Man” 25

*Scoring Key

The best way to accumulate heat is via the Oscars, with a nomination or a win worth more than a nomination or a win at any other award event. Contenders get more for a win than a nomination. So far, our scores are based on the following:

New York Film Critics Circle: 35 points for a win

Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.: 35 points for a win, 17.5 points for runners-up; points split for a tie

Golden Globe nominations: 16 points for director, 12 points for best picture drama, 8 points for best picture comedy/musical

Screen Actors Guild nominations: 12 points for ensemble