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Emmys 2013: Predicting comedy's surprises, snubs and winners

Emmy nominations arrive Thursday morning. Who's going to be waking up to good news? Who will be rolling over in bed and turning off the alarm clock? We're sweeping through the high-profile categories one last time, looking today at the comedy races.

COMEDY SERIES

Surprise: Louis C.K. won Emmy nominations last year for writing, directing and acting, but somehow his wonderful FX show failed to land for series. "Curb Your Enthusiasm" didn't return this season, creating an opening that "Louie" should capably — and rightfully — fill.

Snub: "Arrested Development" arrived in May with much fanfare and a solid history with Emmy voters too, having won this category for its debut season in 2004. In fact, the show received Emmy nominations for series for all three of its seasons and probably would again this year if the category didn't contain so many terrific alternatives.

Nominees: "Modern Family," "The Big Bang Theory," "30 Rock," "Veep," "Girls," "Louie"

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LEAD ACTOR:

Surprise: It's hard to label the inclusion of last year's winner, "Two and a Half Men's" Jon Cryer, as unexpected, particularly with a résumé that includes seven previous Emmy nominations and another win. He'll probably somehow still land a nod the year after "Two and a Half Men" goes off the air. Really, it'd make about as much sense as the continued recognition for a show well past its prime.

Snub: We've been stumping for "The Middle's" Neil Flynn, easily the equal of the "Modern Family" men, for years, to no avail. He'll be left out again, as will likely Matt LeBlanc ("Episodes"), Jake Johnson ("New Girl") and Johnny Galecki ("The Big Bang Theory").

Nominees: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"; Louis C.K., "Louie"; Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"; Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"; Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"; Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"

LEAD ACTRESS:

Surprise: Thanks to a tie, there were seven nominees here last year, and they're all returning. That makes an upset in this category unlikely, though if every Emmy voter who watched and loved Laura Dern in "Enlightened" voted for her ... well, if that scenario was indeed viable, the show probably wouldn't have been canceled after its second season.

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Snub: Again, since there was a bonus name in this category in 2012, someone's going to be disappointed. We'd guess Melissa McCarthy ("Mike & Molly"), who will just have to console herself with the success of her two recent hit movies — "The Heat" and "Identity Thief" — both of which have cleared more than $100 million at the box office.

Nominees: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"; Lena Dunham, "Girls"; Tina Fey, "30 Rock"; Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"; Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"; Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Surprise: With the "Modern Family" blockade still in effect, there's probably room for only two other nominees. Jeffrey Tambor and Will Arnett won nods back in the day for "Arrested Development," but we don't see how voters could ignore Adam Driver's brilliant work on "Girls." Yes, mistakes ... that character has made a few. But you never stopped feeling something for him and rooting for his success.

Snub: If anyone from "Arrested" gets in, it'll probably be Tambor, leaving Arnett cheering from the sidelines. Bill Hader, nominated last year for "Saturday Night Live," could possibly return given it's his last season with the show. But it was a transitional year for "SNL," undeserving of any accolades.

Nominees: Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"; Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"; Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"; Adam Driver, "Girls"; Max Greenfield, "New Girl"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Surprise: Jane Krakowski returns for "30 Rock's" last go-around and "Girls'" Allison Williams makes it in, if only for Marnie's mortifying cover version of Kanye West's "Stronger."

Snub: Left off again: Kaley Cuoco ("The Big Bang Theory"), as well as "Veep's" deserving Anna Chlumsky and a nominee from last year, Merritt Wever ("Nurse Jackie"). And, no, Betty White ("Hot in Cleveland") will not be nominated.

Nominees: Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"; Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"; Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"; Jessica Walter, "Arrested Development"; Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"; Allison Williams, "Girls"

ALSO:

The Envelope: Emmy live chats

Emmys 2013: Predicting drama's surprises, snubs and winners

The Gold Standard: Emmy chances for comedy shows and stars

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