Is slacking back?
Fewer people are playing outdoors as economic worries, Western wildfires and the need for security during uncertain times make the comforts of home appear safe and more inviting, according to an industry survey to be released this week.
After years of robust growth, participation in outdoor recreation dipped in 2003 for the second year in row. Although two-thirds of Americans continue to kick back on mountains and beaches and in deserts, the Outdoor Industry Assn. says participation has slumped from a high of 69% in 2001.
Fewer people climb rocks and ice, shoot the rapids in kayaks or watch birds. The numbers of backpackers, fly fishers, hikers and trail runners are unchanged. More people ride bicycles on highways and camp in cars than the previous year, the survey shows. One-third of outdoor users are 45 or older, most are male and 80% are white.
Matt Schueller of Boulder-based Leisure Trends Group, which prepared the study for the OIA, says the results are not alarming, but “sitting still is not the way to go for the industry.”
Participation estimates fluctuate as people shift from activity to activity, and while no single survey is gospel, the new study focuses exclusively on outdoor sports and has industry respect. OIA, the Colorado-based trade association, represents about 4,000 manufacturers, nonprofit groups and retailers, including Patagonia Inc., the Sierra Club and Canoe & Kayak magazine. The survey sampled 4,000 people ages 16 and older and the margin of error was 1.6%.
Recent and larger surveys by the National Sporting Goods Assn., the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Assn. and research firm American Sports Data Inc. also reflect a flat outdoor market.
“The industry was built on the backs of the baby boomers,” says Mark Sullivan, editor of the trade publication Outdoor Business. As boomers age, he says, “the concern is creating the next generation of outdoor participants.”
Wildfires and drought persuaded many people to stay home. Among wild lands damaged: Virtually all of Cuyamaca Rancho State Park near San Diego burned last year; half the water has evaporated from Lake Powell; and fires have destroyed miles of forest in Oregon, New Mexico and Colorado.
Sullivan says a lethargic economy has hurt the industry too. “You’re a mom and dad with a couple of young kids,” he says. “You could spend $1,200 on a new kayak or use the old one in the garage. That new kayak is a discretionary purchase -- everyone is cutting discretionary purchases.”
The survey calls 2003 the year of “finding the comfort zone.” Schueller says people were looking for activities that were familiar, family-oriented and affordable. People did not experiment; the average number of activities tried was three, down from four in 2002.
The $18-billion outdoor sports market was bound to cool, some experts say, after four decades of rapid growth. Mountain biking had 1.5 million adherents in 1987; it has nearly 7 million today, according to the manufacturers association.
“There’s a ceiling effect,” says Mike Manfredo, chairman of the natural resource recreation and tourism department at Colorado State University. “If you have 70% of people car camping, it’s saturation. You can’t add many more.”
Some retail sales data confirm the trend. For example, the OIA survey shows more car campers, and sales of the tents that Leisure Trends tracks are up 9% to $160 million annually.
Government statistics show outdoor recreation is gaining popularity with still more room to grow as the U.S. population increases, says Forest Service project leader Ken Cordell.
OIA analyst Julie Meyers is optimistic about the future of outdoor sports. She notes that the number of “enthusiasts,” people who recreate most frequently, is up among 16-to-24-year-olds, females and Americans as a whole. And she says that hiking, biking and camping -- often gateways to action sports -- are stable.
Some adrenaline-rich sports that draw a small-but-young crowd fell the most. Ice climbing is down 73% to 659,000 people and natural rock climbing is down 32% to 4.6 million. Both whitewater and sea kayaking are down significantly.
“Sports stuff tends to be faddish,” says Thomas B. Doyle of the National Sporting Goods Assn. “Nothing quite disappears but people move on and only the hard core remain.”
Others say outdoor sports were never as popular as portrayed. Sullivan says companies such as North Face and Cabela’s sell the image of an outdoor lifestyle as much as their products.
Harvey Lauer, president of American Sports Data, says sales of ski jackets, hiking boots and other “rugged chic” symbols reflect the popularity of the outdoors lifestyle, not participation. “People love the outdoors,” Lauer says, “but just like other things, people will never get off their duff to do it.”
