Edwards Isn’t a Cinch for the No. 2 Slot

His presidential hopes having ended Tuesday, John Edwards is seen by many Democrats as an ideal running mate for John F. Kerry, complementing the Massachusetts senator with his comparative youth and charisma.

“He has a message ... with appeal to lots of voters, from independents to working-class Democrats,” said Garry South, a party strategist based in California. “And he has always had one of the best raps down on [President] Bush of all the candidates in the field, even when we had 10 of them.”

Although not exactly a draft-Edwards movement, the push to place him on the ticket shows how the 50-year-old North Carolina senator has captured the fancy of many party faithful, who tout his selection as a way to instantly unify Democrats.

Still, the only person whose opinion matters -- Kerry -- refuses to say whom he might consider for a running mate, insisting he is focused solely on clinching the nomination. Edwards also shuns talk of the vice presidential slot, maintaining he is not remotely interested.

Neither statement is unusual, nor does it necessarily reflect where the candidates will stand even a short time from now.

Opinions differ among analysts on what, if any, advantages Edwards would bring to the Democratic ticket.

He has proved to be one of the party’s most talented speakers and has shown a particular fluency addressing the anxieties of blue-collar Democrats. But a Kerry-Edwards ticket seems unlikely to succeed even in North Carolina, let alone other Southern states that have been less hospitable to Democrats.

“While I think John Edwards has more political talent in his little finger than John Kerry has in his whole body, I don’t know that as a running mate that makes much difference,” said Charles Cook, an independent campaign analyst in Washington. “It’s not obvious to me that he fixes any problem.”

If history offers any guide, it would be unusual for Kerry to turn to a vanquished rival to fill out the ticket.

It has happened only twice in modern times: in 1960, when Democrat John F. Kennedy picked Lyndon B. Johnson to help carry Texas (which he did), and in 1980, when Republican Ronald Reagan picked George H.W. Bush to help unify the GOP. In doing so, Reagan overlooked Bush’s famous denunciation of his fiscal proposals as “voodoo economics.”

Typically, by the end of a nominating fight relations have so soured between contestants -- particularly the final two -- that pairing off as running mates is about the last thing they want to consider.

“If you decide you don’t like someone, you’ll probably decide other people wouldn’t like them very much, either,” said Joel Goldstein, a law professor at St. Louis University and author of a book on the vice presidency.

Still, some Democrats believe this year could be different. They point to the swift and relatively bloodless nature of the primary campaign, which seems to have left few scars on either Kerry or Edwards despite some prickly exchanges, including several at a rowdy debate Sunday in New York.

Edwards’ boosters say that even if he couldn’t help Kerry win in the South, at least he could campaign there enough to force Republicans to respond with more time and effort than they would like.

They also suggest Edwards’ relative youth and buoyant campaign style would offset the more staid -- some say aloof -- manner of the 60-year-old Kerry.

And Edwards’ support among fellow trial lawyers, who donated millions to his campaign, could “move a whole lot of money into [Democratic] coffers fast,” said Jenny Backus, a Democratic strategist. She called a Kerry-Edwards ticket “a match made in heaven.”

Hopes of seeing the two run together may also reflect the fierce partisan desire to beat Bush.

“It comes from ‘Wouldn’t it be nice if we were united and putting all this primary stuff behind us?’ ” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist whose candidate, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, faced a backlash for his rough tactics in Iowa’s lead-off contest.

But when it comes to choosing a running mate, popular sentiments have a way of being trumped by political calculations and personal chemistry. It is not at all clear how Edwards measures up in the latter category.

“Respectful and cordial” was how an Edwards campaign strategist described the relationship between the two men. “Mutually respectful,” was how a Kerry aide put it.

The two had a friendly reunion on the Senate floor Tuesday when they returned to vote on a key gun control measure. But, privately, a Democratic strategist with extensive experience on Capitol Hill said Kerry shared the view of many fellow senators that it was “stunningly presumptuous of John Edwards to seek the presidency” after serving less than a single term in the Senate.

“Like many members of the Senate club, he felt Edwards was way green and way ambitious to even think of it,” said the strategist, who did not want to be quoted by name to preserve his relationships with both lawmakers.

For his part, Edwards has let intimates know that he has not been overly impressed with Kerry, viewing him as a stiff campaigner and not particularly warm in their personal encounters.

The two had dinner during the 2000 presidential campaign, comparing notes shortly after making Al Gore’s vice presidential short list, only to be passed over for Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

In May 2003, after a day of campaigning in South Carolina, they spent the night at the home of then-Gov. Jim Hodges. The three spent several hours together on the front porch, discussing politics and unwinding over drinks.

More recently, Kerry -- who lives in the same Washington neighborhood as Edwards -- chanced upon his rival as Edwards was walking to dinner with his family in Georgetown. Kerry pulled his car over, got out and chatted at some length with Edwards, who later told aides he thought it was a nice gesture.

Although the North Carolina senator tops many Democrats’ vice presidential wish list, there are plenty of other names popping up in speculation. They include Gephardt, Florida Sens. Bob Graham and Bill Nelson, and Govs. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Tom Vilsack of Iowa.

Gephardt and the two Floridians could increase the Democratic chances of winning their home states -- key battlegrounds in the 2000 race that Bush barely won. Richardson is half Latino, and could help the party’s prospects in two other states Bush won: Arizona and Colorado.

Discussing the matter Tuesday, Kerry said he believed a presidential candidate needs to pick his running mate taking abilities and politics into consideration.

The first necessity, he said, “is to choose somebody that you have confidence, if something happened to you, God forbid, that that person could be president and carry on.”

Secondly, “You want to have somebody who you’re comfortable working with and somebody that you have confidence will help you do a better job substantively and politically,” Kerry said on the New York-based Don Imus radio program. Despite occasional harsh words exchanged by the two, aides to both men said that neither believed the other had crossed the line between competing aggressively and taking cheap shots.

“It’s not dissimilar to the respect you have for someone playing pickup basketball,” said a Kerry advisor. “One week you’re on the same team, one week you’re fighting each other, but you still bring your best game to it.”

Kerry strategists indicated that a decision on a running mate was a ways off -- he has until the party’s national convention in late July to make up his mind. One campaign advisor suggested Tuesday that the calls to put Edwards on the ticket are born mostly of his better-than-expected showing in the primary campaign.

“There’s a lot of buzz based on considerations of the moment,” the advisor said. “Right now, John Edwards has gotten a lot of press, he’s on TV.... In two months there is no reason to believe that context will necessarily continue.”

When the time finally comes, Kerry’s choice will come down to one basic calculation, said a Democratic strategist who knows Kerry and Edwards well: “He’ll pick the guy or gal he thinks can help him win.”

Times staff writers Maria L. La Ganga and Janet Hook contributed to this report.