Newsletter: Essential Politics: In California’s primary for governor, it’s a race for second place

When is it more interesting who will finish second in an election? The answer is simple for Californians: when it’s a primary election under the “top two” rules created by voters in 2010.

We’re now less than two weeks away from election day, and the only sure bet is that Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is poised to finish first among 27 gubernatorial hopefuls.

Beyond that, as our new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll makes clear, it’s unclear who will join Newsom on the ballot come November.

POLL: VILLARAIGOSA, COX AND THE UNDECIDEDS

The survey found Newsom comfortably in the driver’s seat, though with support from only 21% of likely voters who were surveyed.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and businessman John Cox were at 11% and 10%, respectively.

And the real leader in the survey: undecided. 39% of likely voters who were polled said they weren’t sure who’d they cast a ballot for in the primary.

“We know from this data that this is not a race that has grabbed the state,” said GOP strategist Mike Murphy, an analyst for the poll. “This is kind of a sleep-walking zombie election.”

THE SUMMIT MIGHT BE CANCELED … UNLESS IT’S NOT

For those seeking to get some clear read of where things stand on plans for a U.S.-North Korea summit next month, the one place where it probably didn’t pay to be on Tuesday was the Oval Office.

There, President Trump led reporters through what might best be called a round of linguist gymnastics about what to expect.

“It may not work out for June 12,” he told reporters at one point, then further confused the issue by adding, “There’s a good chance that we’ll have the meeting.”

Trump was meeting at the time with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who flew in to try and keep the historic breakthrough in relations with North Korea on track.

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NATIONAL POLITICS LIGHTNING ROUND

-- A longtime business partner of Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen, whose business dealings are being scrutinized by federal prosecutors, pleaded guilty on Tuesday in a state tax fraud case that requires him to cooperate in any ongoing investigation, according to a person briefed on the deal.

-- The law firm of Stormy Daniels’ attorney was hit with a $10-million judgment, and now Michael Avenatti is accusing The Times of an “overblown” story.

-- An Iowa GOP congressman has introduced the Mayor Libby Schaaf Act of 2018, named for Oakland’s Democratic mayor and calling for up to five years’ imprisonment for any official who obstructs or impedes the enforcement of federal laws.

-- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday defended his list of U.S. demands for Iran, rebuffing critics who said his goals were unrealistic.

-- Top national security officials briefed members of Congress on Tuesday about gaps in election security, as Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen offered a not-quite-clear view of Russian election interference in 2016 as she later spoke to reporters.

-- Bipartisan legislation focused on easing regulations for small and mid-sized banks passed the House on Tuesday and headed to the president for his expected signature.

-- Americans kept up their health insurance last year despite Trump’s all-out push to dismantle the Obama-era coverage expansion.

-- Time is running out on Mick Mulvaney’s tenure as acting head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but there’s an easy way for the White House to extend his tenure: nominate somebody — anybody — else to permanently fill the job.

-- When it comes to having a Californian in the White House, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll found fewer than half of registered voters, 42%, said they support a Sen. Kamala Harris bid for president. Just over 20% were opposed. The rest? Indifferent.

THE STRATEGY FOR CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATIC HOPEFULS

Democrats are focused still on getting candidates through the state’s tricky top-two primary, and our new poll highlights two issues that they could exploit as they seek several California congressional wins to regain control of the House.

The poll shows Californians are strongly supportive of the Affordable Care Act and unfriendly to Republican politicians who voted to repeal it, while they’re largely opposed to the new tax law and less likely to reelect their member of Congress if he or she supported it.

CALIFORNIA’S TITANS OF DEMOCRATIC FRUSTRATION

For years, Democrats have looked to California’s Central Valley communities represented by Rep. Jeff Denham and Rep. David Valadao and seen winnable odds. After all, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama carried the congressional districts in the last two presidential elections.

But the national Democratic machine has struggled with low voter turnout and run ineffective campaigns as locals say they yearn for homegrown candidates who share their values more than political affiliations.

FEINSTEIN SHIFTS HER REELECTION FORMULA

Sen. Dianne Feinstein is rethinking her position as a political moderate. Since California has moved left, the state’s senior senator has moved left as well, though not enough for some Democrats.

Sarah D. Wire has a look at what Feinstein has done in Washington and how she now says she opposes the death penalty, a change of position from what helped her gain statewide name recognition in 1990.

VILLARAIGOSA’S TRANSPORTATION VICTORY

When running for Los Angeles mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa staked his campaign on a lofty pledge to build a “subway to the sea” and invest in a comprehensive transit network in the car-choked city. To do so, he pushed a county-wide measure to increase the sales tax to fund transportation projects — and improbably, convinced voters to tax themselves even as the economy collapsed.

Melanie Mason takes a look at Villaraigosa’s 2008 victory in championing Measure R and how he is now touting his transportation bona fides in his bid to be governor.

TODAY’S ESSENTIALS

-- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will be a featured speaker at a June 2 rally in Anaheim, alongside union leaders who have been calling for higher wages for workers at Disneyland, California Adventure Park and three hotels at the resort.

-- Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck disputes the president’s accusation that LAPD released an illegal immigrant who then committed murder.

-- Democrats are scrambling to ensure they don’t get locked out of two key pickup opportunities in California House races. On Tuesday, they made their most overt play to date in the June 5 primary, running two separate ads backing Harley Rouda in the 48th Congressional District and Gil Cisneros in the 39th District.

-- As San Francisco mayor in 2005, Newsom asked for breed-specific legislation after several pit bull attacks in the Bay Area. Now, dog owners are supporting a small, but growing campaign on Facebook with the message that the Democratic frontrunner “is bad for pit bulls.”

-- A lot less pot is being sold in California than initially estimated, says a new report; perhaps as little as half of what was expected.

LOGISTICS

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