Bush or Kerry: The Electoral College Map
Ponder strategy with an interactive educational map about presidential races.
Data as of Nov. 1, 2004, before election day: Poll details and explanations of the Times’ interactive map (click on map).
Following the polls on this page:
Methodology for polls and map colors.
About U.S. Senate Map.
Nader and third-party ballot status
Electoral Vote Changes between 2000 and 2004
About PollingReport.com and comment link
*17 "key battleground" states that were cited by the campaigns and other observers earlier this year.
Alabama
Capital Survey Research Center/Alabama Education Association. Oct. 12-14, 2004. N=546 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.2:
Bush 56%
Kerry 32%
Nader 1%
Unsure 11%
Alaska
American Research Group. Sept. 9-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 57%
Kerry 30%
Nader 5%
Other 3%
Unsure 5%
Arizona
Arizona State University/KAET-TV Poll. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=573 registered voters statewide. MoE ± 4.1:
Bush 50%
Kerry 45%
Badnarik 1%
Unsure 4%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Arizona Republic Poll conducted by Market Solutions Group. Oct. 18-19, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 47%
Kerry 40%
Unsure 13%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Arkansas
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 51%
Kerry 43%
Unsure 6%
Opinion Research Associates for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5:
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 3%
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette poll conducted by Zogby International. Oct. 10-11, 2004. N=503 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5:
Bush 46%
Kerry 45%
Nader 2%
Other 2%
Unsure 6%
Opinion Research Assoc. for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. Oct. 4-6, 2004. N=502 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5:
Bush 52%
Kerry 43%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
California
The Field Poll. Oct. 21-27, 2004. N=1,086 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.2:
Bush 42%
Kerry 49%
Other/Unsure 9%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 16-18, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 41%
Kerry 50%
Unsure 9%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Colorado
Note: Colorado will vote on a ballot initiative that would split its nine electoral votes proportionately. It is written to apply to this election, but if passed, there may be a legal battle over that provision.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 50%
Kerry 43%
Other 2%
Unsure 5%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) for the League of Conservation Voters. Oct. 20-21, 2004. N=400 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.9:
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Ciruli Associates for The Pueblo Chieftain. Oct. 15-19, 2004. N=600 voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 48%
Kerry 42%
Nader 2%
Unsure 8%
Connecticut
Research 2000 for The New London Day, et al. Oct. 26-28, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 42%
Kerry 52%
Nader 3%
Unsure 3%
Delaware
WHYY/West Chester University Poll. Sept. 22-25, 2004. N=590 registered voters statewide; excludes registered voters who said they "will probably not vote" this November. MoE ± 3.9:
Bush 38%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 16%
District of Columbia
American Research Group. Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 11%
Kerry 78%
Nader 6%
Other 1%
Unsure 4%
Florida
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=700 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.7:
Bush 44%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%
Other/Unsure 6%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Unsure 3%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,138 likely voters (MoE ± 4):
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
None/Unsure 5%
Note: Including leaners
Quinnipiac University Poll. Oct. 27-31, 2004. N=1,098 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 51%
Kerry 43%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
New York Times Regional Newspapers poll. Oct. 23-27, 2004. N=802 most-likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 47%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Unsure 4%
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D). Oct. 24-27, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Other/Unsure 6%
Georgia
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV Poll conducted by Zogby International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=501 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5:
Bush 52%
Kerry 42%
Other/Unsure 6%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Hawaii
Honolulu Advertiser Hawaii Poll conducted by Ward Research. Oct. 13-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 43%
Kerry 43%
Nader 2%
Unsure 12%
American Research Group. Sept. 7-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 41%
Kerry 51%
Nader 4%
Unsure 4%
Idaho
American Research Group. Sept. 8-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 59%
Kerry 30%
Nader 3%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
Illinois
Research 2000 for WEEK-TV and The Pantagraph News. Oct. 27-28, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters):
Bush 40%
Kerry 54%
Badnarik 1%
Unsure 5%
Note; Nader not on ballot
Research 2000 for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV. Oct. 21-23, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5::
Bush 41%
Kerry 53%
Unsure 6%
Market Shares Corp. for The Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV. Oct. 16-19, 2004. N=700 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters):
Bush 42%
Kerry 50%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
Indiana
Indianapolis Star/WTHR Hoosier Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=1,002 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.1:
Bush 57%
Kerry 37%
Badnarik 1%
Unsure 5%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Iowa
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=1,329 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 3); 1,119 likely voters (MoE ± 3):
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Other/Unsure 4%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Unsure 7%
Research 2000 for KCCI-TV. Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 2%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
American Research Group Poll. Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=600 likely voters. MoE ± 4:
Bush 48%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Kansas
Kansas City Star/KMBC poll conducted by Market Research Institute. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=573 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.1:
Bush 59%
Kerry 30%
Other/Unsure 11%
Kentucky
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=690 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.7:
Bush 56%
Kerry 39%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Louisiana
Southeastern Louisiana University Poll. Oct. 17-22, 2004. N=637 registered voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 58%
Kerry 32%
Nader 1%
Other 2%
Unsure 8%
Maine
Zogby International for The Portland Press Herald and The Maine Sunday Telegram. Oct. 20-21, 2004. N=402 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 5:
Bush 39%
Kerry 50%
Nader 1%
Unsure 10%
Critical Insights. Sept. 10-23, 2004. N=600 adults statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 42%
Kerry 45%
Nader 3%
Unsure 10%
Maryland
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Oct. 1-5, 2004. N=809 likely voters. MoE ± 3.5:
Bush 42%
Kerry 52%
Nader 1%
Unsure 5%
Massachusetts
Merrimack College Bay State Poll. Sept. 25-Oct. 5, 2004. N=805 adults statewide. MoE ± 3.5:
Bush 36%
Kerry 50%
Nader 2%
Unsure 11%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Michigan
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=626 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 45%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Research 2000 for The South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV. Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 46%
Kerry 50%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 2%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 24-26, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 47%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%
Unsure 5%
Detroit News Tracking Poll conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications. Oct. 20-21 & 25, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. Rolling sample. MoE ± 4:
Bush 44%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%
Other 2%
Unsure 8%
EPIC/MRA for WXYZ. Oct. 18-22, 2004. N=610 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%
Unsure 6%
Minnesota
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,271 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 3); 1,078 likely voters (MoE ± 4):
Bush 44%
Kerry 52%
Nader 1%
Unsure 3%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 48%
Kerry 47%
Other/Unsure 5%
St. Cloud State University Survey. Oct. 17-21 & 24-26, 2004. N=508 likely voters:
Bush 42%
Kerry 49%
Nader 2%
Other 2%
Unsure 5%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 3%
Mississippi
American Research Group. Sept. 14-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 51%
Kerry 42%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
Missouri
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Kansas City Star/KMBC poll conducted by Market Research Institute. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=553 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.1:
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
Other/Unsure 6%
Research 2000 for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV. Oct. 22-24, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:
Bush 48%
Kerry 45%
Unsure 7%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Montana
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Lee Newspapers. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 57%
Kerry 36%
Nader 1%
Unsure 6%
Nebraska
KM3 News Poll conducted by MSR Group. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=754 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.6:
Bush 61%
Kerry 32%
Nader 2%
Unsure 5%
Note: Nebraska last went Democratic in 1964.
Nevada
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 50%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 4%
Research 2000 for The Reno Gazette-Journal and Channel 4. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%
Other 1%
Unsure 2%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters. MoE ± 4:
Bush 52%
Kerry 42%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 4%
New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire/WMUR Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. (As of 10/25-27, 3-day rolling sample.) N=700 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.7:
Bush 48%
Kerry 49%
Other/Nader 2%
Unsure 2%
American Research Group poll. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 47%
Kerry 47%
Nader 2%
Unsure 4%
Research 2000 for The Concord Monitor. Oct. 26-28, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (total sample):
Bush 46%
Kerry 49%
Nader 2%
Unsure 3%
University of New Hampshire/WMUR Poll. Oct. 26-28, 2004. N=823 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.4:
Bush 47%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%
Unsure 3%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac University Poll. Oct. 27-31, 2004. N=984 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.1:
Bush 43%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Unsure 6%
Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=740 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.6:
Bush 41%
Kerry 45%
Nader 2%
Unsure 12%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 24-26, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 44%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Unsure 11%
New Mexico
American Research Group Poll. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 47%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
American Research Group Poll. Oct. 16-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters. MoE ± 4:
Bush 46%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 5%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 3-6, 2004. N=885 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 4); 673 likely voters (MoE ± 4):
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Nader 2%
Unsure 1%
New York
Siena College Poll. Oct. 25-28, 2004. N=1,062 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 37%
Kerry 52%
Other/Unsure 11%
North Carolina
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for news media clients. Oct. 25-26, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 52%
Kerry 43%
Badnarik 1%
Unsure 4%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for news media clients. Oct. 18-19, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 51%
Kerry 43%
Badnarik 1%
Unsure 5%
North Dakota
Minnesota State University Moorhead for Forum Communications. Oct. 18-19, 2004. N=623 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 55%
Kerry 35%
Other 1%
Unsure 9%
Ohio
Note: On Tuesday (10/26), the Supreme court denied without comment Ralph Nader's appeal of a decision keeping him off Ohio ballot.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 28-31, 2004. N=1,111 likely voters (MoE ± 3):
Bush 46%
Kerry 50%
Unsure 4%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Unsure 6%
Reuters/Zogby tracking poll. Oct. 28-31, 2004. Rolling sample. N=602 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.1:
Bush 48%
Kerry 44%
Other 4%
Unsure 4%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=700 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.7:
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Unsure 3%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
Los Angeles Times poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=585 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 44%
Kerry 50%
Unsure 6%
Oklahoma
Wilson Research Strategies (R) for KWTV. Oct. 22-24, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.4:
Bush 61%
Kerry 28%
Unsure 11%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Oregon
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 44%
Kerry 50%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
Oregonian/KATU poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=608 voters statewide. MoE ± 4.1:
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Unsure 8%
American Research Group Poll. Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=600 likely voters. MoE ± 4:
Bush 46%
Kerry 50%
Unsure 4%
Pennsylvania
Note: The U.S. Supreme Court refused to reinstate Ralph Nader on the Pennsylvania ballot on Oct. 23.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 28-31, 2004. N=1,302 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 3); 1,082 likely voters (MoE ± 3):
Bush 50%
Kerry 46%
Other/Neither/Unsure 4%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 46%
Kerry 47%
Unsure 7%
Quinnipiac University Poll. Oct. 27-31, 2004. N=1,022 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.1:
Bush 47%
Kerry 47%
Unsure 6%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 46%
Kerry 48%
Unsure 6%
WHYY/West Chester University Poll. Oct. 24-27, 2004. N=684 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.7:
Bush 45%
Kerry 50%
Other 2%
Unsure 4%
Los Angeles Times poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=585 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 47%
Kerry 50%
Unsure 3%
Rhode Island
American Research Group. Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 30%
Kerry 58%
Nader 4%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
South Carolina
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Post and Courier. Oct. 19-20, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 53%
Kerry 40%
Unsure 7%
Note: Nader not in poll
South Dakota
McLaughlin & Associates for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=400 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.9:
Bush 55%
Kerry 33%
Nader 2%
Unsure 11%
Note: South Dakota last went Democratic in 1964
Tennessee
Middle Tennessee State University. Oct. 4-15, 2004. N=624 adults statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 50%
Kerry 39%
Other 3%
Unsure 9%
Texas
American Research Group. Sept. 16-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 58%
Kerry 36%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Utah
Dan Jones & Associates for The Deseret News and KSL-TV. Oct. 21-28, 2004. N=1,228 registered voters statewide. MoE ± 2.8:
Bush 69%
Kerry 24%
Nader 1%
Other 2%
Unsure 4%
Note: Utah last went Democratic in 1964
Vermont
Research 2000 for WCAX Television. Oct. 10-12, 2004. N=403 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 5:
Bush 40%
Kerry 53%
Nader 3%
Badnarik 1%
Unsure 3%
Virginia
Richmond Times-Dispatch/NBC12 Poll. Oct. 20-26, 2004. N=751 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.6:
Bush 49%
Kerry 40%
Other 1%
Unsure 9%
Note: Nader not on ballot
Washington
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Seattle Post-Intelligencer and KOMO-TV. Oct. 25-26, 2004. N=800 likely voters. MoE ± 3.5:
Bush 45%
Kerry 50%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 16-18, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 45%
Kerry 50%
Nader 2%
Unsure 3%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 4-6, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:
Bush 44%
Kerry 49%
Nader 2%
Unsure 5%
Moore Information (R). Oct. 3-4, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 45%
Kerry 47%
Nader 3%
Unsure 5%
West Virginia
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 51%
Kerry 43%
Unsure 6%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 14-16, 2004. N=626 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Unsure 6%
MCNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=619 likely voters (MoE ± 5):
Bush 51%
Kerry 45%
Unsure 4%
American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Wisconsin
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=1,345 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 3); 1,119 likely voters (MoE ± 3):
Bush 52%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Unsure 3%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Oct. 26-29, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 46%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 5%
American Research Group Poll. Oct. 25-27, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
Bush 47%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 22-24, 2004. N=801 likely voters. MoE ± 3:
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Unsure 6%
Wyoming
American Research Group. Sept. 9-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):
Bush 65%
Kerry 29%
Nader 2%
Unsure 3%
Note: Wyoming last went Democratic in 1964.
Polls, Methodology and the Interactive Map
The U.S. presidential election is decided by the results of 51 electoral vote contests. In all states except Maine and Nebraska the electoral votes go to the winner of the popular vote in a "winner-take-all" system. (Colorado is considering an initiative to create proportional distribution of its electoral vote in November.) Thus, trends in the campaign must be considered on a state-by-state basis.
The initial setting of the pop-up flash interactive map is colored red or blue if either candidate in the latest major poll has a lead at outside the margin of error. The state is white if the lead is inside the margin of error, indicated by "swing" above or "Up for Grabs" on the map. Poll data are provided by PollingReport.com; only polls with methodologies that meet its standards are used. The initial setting also shows a recent national poll for reference, but note that the national vote does not determine the winner. PollingReport.com lists national polls on the free section of its site; see link at the top right of this page.
The Times' map does not attempt to indicate states that are "leaning" one way or another or make conclusions about trends from a series of polls. The map is based only on the most recent major poll. In a few cases, we've included other recent polls above.
Polls are a snapshot in time; changes are expected. Notes below each state may indicate a second poll taken within a few weeks or another relevant factor. The campaigns, The Times and other observers initially identified 17 key battleground states that are indicated with an asterik in the first list of states at the top of this page. Since the summer, some observers have changed the list of major battleground states.
The poll data presented here are from probability-sample surveys, conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Usually, surveys of likely presidential election voters are used. However, users should be aware that polling organizations screen for "likely" voters in different ways. All use various combinations of three criteria: Voting history, interest in the election and stated intention to vote. But variations in the results of different surveys are to be expected. For example, some organizations will never use a first-time voter in a poll because they have no voting history while others may include them if their answers to certain screening questions indicate they are interested in the election.
In addition, some organizations weight their results to conform to specific proportions of political party identification (sometimes based on past turnout or other polls that ask about party identification), while others consider that variable to be too changeable to use as a weight.
In some cases, polls that have been reported in the news media are not included here because details of the survey methodology are unavailable.
When a poll has asked presidential preferences both with and without Ralph Nader, the survey that includes Ralph Nader is used. If Nader ultimately does not qualify for a state's ballot, however, the survey without him will be used. Other third-party candidates will be on this page if they had at least one percent in the poll but added to "undecided" on the map, due to space constraints.
Some polls used name the vice presidential candidates and some do not. Full details are available from PollingReport.com.
The map, its colors and all notes are by latimes.com. Only the reported polling data comes from PollingReport.com.
On the initial setting of the map, white states are within the latest polls' stated margin of error (MoE ±). ( Definitions of margin of error. ) "Bush" states are states with red and "Kerry" states are blue.
Comments may appear as you roll over states.
(R) or (D) sometimes appears to indicate that the polling organization is often associated with one party or the other.
About U.S. Senate Map: There are 33 contests for seats in the U.S. Senate in November. In a 34th race, the Idaho Republican, Mike Crapo, is running unopposed. Louisana runs an "open primary" that allows all candidates to run in one election. There is one Republican candidate and several Democratic candidates. If one candidate does not receive a majority, there will be a run-off election in December.
The Senate Poll Tracker map follows the same methodology as the presidential poll map. Details on the Senate polls are on the flash map rather than on this page. Third-party candidates with significant polling numbers are indicated on the map as well. Note that there are fewer polls taken in Senate races. In the initial color pattern of the map,there are a few cases of races without polls where we have followed a broad range of opinion that an incumbent will be re-elected.
Electoral Vote Changes for 2004
After the 2000 census, seats in the House of Representatives were reallocated based on new population trends. Electoral votes are based on those numbers. Here are the changes for 2004 from 2000:
Gained Electoral Votes: Arizona (+2); Florida (+2); Georgia (+2); Texas (+2); California (+1); Colorado (+1); Nevada (+1); North Carolina (+1).
Lost Electoral Votes: New York (-2); Pennsylvania (-2); Connecticut (-1); Indiana (-1); Illinois (-1); Michigan (-1); Mississippi (-1); Ohio (-1); Oklahoma (-1); Wisconsin (-1).
Ballot Standing of Third Parties and Ralph Nader:
Libertarian Michael Badnarik appears to be safely on the ballot in all states except Oklahoma. Green Party candidate David Cobb is likely to be on about 30 state ballots and Constitution Party candidate Michael Anthonty Peroutka is likely to be on about 40 state ballots. Of these, Badnarik has had as much as one percent in state polls covered by this page since June in Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico. Peroutka has polled one percent in Montana.
There are other third-party candidates as well, but they are on fewer state ballots. According to Ballot Access News, the Socialist Party (Walt Brown) is on in Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Wisconsin; the Socialist Equality Party (Bill Van Auken) is on in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Washington; the Prohibition Party (Gene Amondsen) is on in Colorado and Louisiana; and the Workers World Party (John Parker) is on in Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.
Ralph Nader is often included in polls this election season and garners above one percent routinely. However, Nader appears qualified for 35 states compared to 43 in 2000.
Nader status: Although some legal battles will continue beyond the election, as of Oct. 26, 2004:
Nader appears to be permanently blocked from the ballot in Arizona, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia.
Nader appears to be qualified for the ballot in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakoka, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
The Reform Party endorsed Nader, which enabled him to skip some petition drives. However, litigation and battles within the Reform Party kept him off the Reform Party line in some states. The Green Party, endorsed him in 2000.
In states where Ralph Nader is not on a party ticket, his campaign had to file independentpetitions to appear on the ballot.
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