Racing! Louisiana Derby kicks off final major Kentucky Derby preps

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for the first of four big weekends on the Derby trail.

This is the first of four weeks of significant prep races for the Kentucky Derby. Basically, any horse that finishes first or second in the Louisiana, Florida, BlueGrass, Wood, Santa Anita and Arkansas derbies would have enough points to qualify for Kentucky. We caught up with Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form for his thoughts on the upcoming races. You can read it here with a simple click.

As it mentions, today’s big deal is the $1-million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. The favorite, at 5-2, is My Boy Jack for trainer Keith Desormeaux. We caught up with Keith a few weeks back after My Boy Jack won the Southwest Stakes a Oaklawn. (You can read what Keith had to say here.) He had an interesting take on how the Kentucky Derby points qualifying system may not be fair as it should. Take a look.

There is also a stakes race on Sunday at Sunland Park. The winner gets 50 points, so that should qualify that colt. Simon Callaghan has All Out Blitz, the favorite at 4-1. Some pretty big trainer names have horses entered: Steve Asmussen, Peter Eurton, Jerry Hollendorfer, Richard Mandella, Doug O’Neill, Todd Pletcher and Dale Romans. Barring something really crazy, it’s unlikely the winner, if he goes, will get much attention in Louisville.

A handicapping tip

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first race on Saturday at Santa Anita.

“Things begin with a $25,000 claimer at 1 ⅛ miles on the turf. Top choice in the opener is EAGLE SCREAMS (#2). As we often discuss in both the WCHR and ECHR, this sport rewards patience as well as a strategies, which often go hand in hand. This runner was claimed last month by Steve Miyadi out of a main track route, and now, he immediately stretches out to this ultralong 1 ⅛ distance, moves to the turf, removes the blinkers, instilling a set of drills with the last pretty quick by this barn’s standards, ¾ in 1:14. Off the claim it appears a plan is place, and we’ll fully expect a sharp effort for the new connections. LITTLE SCOTTY (#10) is in good health right now, stringing three races together off the brief freshening, now moved from a mile to this longer distance while Vladimir Cerin turns to Victor Espinoza which he doesn’t do often, interesting. Last time out they went 1:10.3 today, today, likely 2 to 3 seconds slower early, which should allow for more late, fitting well classwise.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 2-10

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 5,9

“Positive Notes: 4 Excessive Kid - Frey fits this one well with his patient style, and on his best day, with a relaxed trip, this guy can be effective in a spot like this.

“Negative Notes:

“7 Unusual Meeting - Just not the right spot for Mulhall here, a wasted effort. “

“9 Buymeabond - Poor placement with Pedroza not a good fit either for this type of runner from of the pace on the sod.

“TOP PICK: EAGLE SCREAMS (#2 5-1 Ceballos)

“SECOND CHOICE: LITTLE SCOTTY (#10 4-1 Espinoza)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Friday’s allowance feature, 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, was great if you played a longshot. A real longshot. Prince Of Arabia, ridden by Peter O’Toole, no, just kidding, it was Stewart Elliott, won the race by ¾ of a length at 35-1 odds.

He paid $73.00, $18.80 and $7.80 for trainer Jim Cassidy.

“I just told Stew, ‘He probably wants to go longer, but just make sure you have a target for him to run it,’” Cassidy told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “The race set up pretty good for him. … This horse wants a mile and a quarter. Yeah, we’ll look at the Gold Cup [May 26].”

Santa Anita preview

It’s a 10-race card starting at noon with two good stakes races. The first is the Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes for sprinters going 7 furlongs. It’s not a great betting race with only five starters, but those that are entered are quality. Paradise Woods is the even money favorite, coming off a third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff behind Forever Unbridled and Abel Tasman and second in the La Brea Stakes behind Unique Bella. That’s heavy company, for sure. Flavien Prat remains the rider for Richard Mandella.

Skye Diamonds, who we kind of wrote about a few weeks back (just click here), is the 5-2 second choice along with Selcourt. Skye Diamonds finished third in the 6-furlong Las Flores, which was won by Selcourt. Skye Diamonds was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mare Sprint. This is Selcourt’s sixth lifetime race, she’s won three of five. It’s the fifth race and should go about 2 p.m.

The other feature is the Grade 2 $200,000 San Luis Rey Stakes over 1 ½ miles on the turf. It has 10 starters, and remember, they start on the hillside turf course, cross over the dirt, and the do a full lap around the track. Veteran Itsinthepost, a 6-year-old gelding, is the 6-5 favorite. This will be his 33^rd career start, mostly for trainer Jeff Mullins and jockey Tyler Baze. He’s won his last two races, Grade 2s, after a seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Hayabusa One, for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Victor Espinoza, is the 5-2 second choice. He finished second in the San Marcos behind Itsinthepost.

The big betting news from the card is the early pick 5 has a carryover of $251,993, which could lead to pool of more than $2 million. With Paradise Woods in the fifth race, you could almost view this as a pick 4. Of course, the best horses sometimes lose.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:52 Aqueduct: $100,000 Maddie May Stakes, NY-bred fillies 3 year olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Split Time (7-5)

1:39 Fair Grounds: Grade 2 $400,000 New Orleans Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Good Samaritan (8-5)

2:00 Santa Anita: Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Paradise Woods (1-1)

2:06 Fair Grounds: Grade 2 $300,000 Muniz Memorial Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Synchrony (7-2)

2:41 Fair Grounds: Grade 2 $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Classy Act (5-2)

2:44 Gulfstream: Grade 3 $100,000 Hutcheson Stakes, 3 year olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Tricks To Doo (2-1)

3:09 Oaklawn: $150,000 Purple Martin Stakes, fillies 3 year olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Mia Mischief (1-1)

3:21 Fair Grounds: Grade 2 $1 million Louisiana Derby, 3 year olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: My Boy Jack (5-2)

4:00 Santa Anita: Grade 2 $200,000 San Luis Rey Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Itsinthepost (6-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Ride Lady Ride (6-1)

Sophomore filly from the hot Eric Kruljac stable chased and tired in two previous starts when facing better. She will appreciate the drop in class and switch back to dirt for connections (jockey Martin Pedroza) that are doing very well together.

Friday Result: Wild Lando lived up to his name, racing very erratically through the lane and badly impeding two horses, which triggered his obvious disqualification from second place.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 2 My Suspiro (3-1)

He has the most upside while only making fourth lifetime start. He outran his 18-1 odds two races back when second vs. prior maiden $10,000 runnerup Cat Two Storm. In last fourth-place try, he was forced inward early after a sluggish start. Two of his well-regarded rivals in this field are winless in 19 combined starts.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

HAWKS PEAK bobbled a bit at the start but broke alertly, sped to the early lead and crossed inside, set all the pace along the rail, kicked clear in the stretch and held under urging and steady handling late. KONA DREAMS a bit washy at the gate, stalked the winner just off the rail throughout, could not catch that one in the stretch but saved the place. POPULAR KID saved ground stalking the pace, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and was edged for the place. SPITFIRE chased outside a rival, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for third. UBER STAR a bit slow to begin, pulled his way along off the rail, went three deep on the backstretch, angled in some on the second turn and weakened. TEMPLE KEYS settled three deep then outside a rival, continued off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch, was under urging in the drive then had the rider lose the whip late and did not rally. RATE FOR ME chased between horses then off the rail on the backstretch, angled in on the second turn and had little left for the stretch. KONA DREAMS, SPITFIRE, UBER STAR and TEMPLE KEYS wore calks.

EMPRESS OF LOV broke in the air and slowly, settled inside, moved up along the rail then bid inside leaving the second turn, took the lead in upper stretch and drew clear under some urging and a long hold late. ETERNAL ENDEAVOUR (GB) chased off the rail then outside a rival on the backstretch, continued off the inside on the second turn, bid five wide into the stretch, drifted in through the drive and was clearly second best. MILLIE JOEL went up inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail on the backstretch and into the second turn, fought back between horses into the stretch and held third. SAPPHIRE KID had speed three deep then dueled outside a rival, continued three wide between foes into the stretch and was edged for third. ALL NET stalked off the rail, went three deep leaving the second turn, bid four wide between foes into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

DULUTH settled outside a rival then inside leaving the first turn, saved ground off the pace, moved up along the rail into and through the stretch, gained the lead under left handed urging past the eighth pole and drew clear. WILD LANDO had good early speed and dueled inside, drifted out into the stretch, ducked out sharply to bump DIAL ME IN in midstretch and steadied, continued off the rail and bested the others. FAVERSHAM angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch, steadied when bumped and impeded in midstretch and edged a rival for third. EXTRAORDIANRIUS four wide into the first turn, chased outside a rival then off the rail on the second turn, drifted in through the stretch and lacked rally. LUCKY SUN dueled outside a rival, dropped back a bit off the rail leaving the second turn, angled in to avoid the trouble in midstretch and weakened. DIAL ME IN three deep into the first turn, stalked off the rail, bid three wide then outside the pacesetter leaving the second turn and into the stretch, steadied when bumped and impeded by that one then took a bad step in midstretch, was pulled up and vanned off. Following a stewards' inquiry, WILD LANDO was disqualified and left unplaced for interference in midstretch. LUCKY SUN wore calks.

FOOL'S PARADISE four wide into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch, took the lead outside the runner-up in midstretch, inched away under left handed urging in deep stretch and proved best. CHICKATINI had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away on the second turn, fought back in midstretch, could not quite match the winner late but held second. TEQUILA SUNRISE bobbled at the start, settled off the rail then outside leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted in and edged a rival for the show. TELL YOUR MAMA had speed between horses then angled in and stalked inside, cut the corner into the stretch, came a bit off the rail in deep stretch and was edged for third. LADY MAMBA stalked off the rail, split horses on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. FANTASTIC GIRL a bit slow into stride, had speed three deep then dueled outside the runner-up, fell back on the second turn, was between horses into the stretch and weakened.

TANIKO settled inside, went around a rival on the second turn then angled in, bid inside in the drive, gained the lead past the eighth pole and won clear under urging. TIDAL EFFECT angled in and chased inside then a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, bid three wide in midstretch and held second. IMPRESSION a step slow to begin, angled in and stalked outside a rival then bid alongside a foe to take the lead into the second turn, kicked clear, fought back between foes in midstretch and was edged for the place. PAPA GULF chased off the rail then outside a rival, continued off the inside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened. TRE angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, steadied in tight off heels midway on the second turn then got through along the rail and also weakened. BIG SKY LOGAN settled outside a rival then off the rail, came out into the stretch and had little left for the drive. ESCUDO NACIONAL (ARG) sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled into the second turn, came a bit off the fence while dropping back past midway on that turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch. IMPRESSION wore calks.

TIGER MOM had good early speed and dueled inside then a bit off the rail leaving the turn and between foes into the stretch, fought back under urging outside the runner-up in the final furlong and gamely prevailed. WILD EDIE stalked the pace inside, bid along the rail into the stretch, gained a short advantage, fought back inside through the final furlong and was outgamed. CINNAMON TWIST chased off the rail then outside on the turn, came five wide into the stretch and gained the show. AN EDDIE SURPRISE dropped back off the rail, angled in leaving the backstretch, found the rail on the turn and lacked the needed late kick inside. CHIEFS LIL PEARL had good early speed and dueled between horses, was carried three deep into the stretch and weakened. PROUDLY ELEGANT had speed four wide then stalked outside, chased off the rail into the turn, steadied briefly off heels early on the turn, continued outside leaving the bend and a bit wide into the stretch and also weakened. MAMA'S KID between horses early, pressed the pace three deep, was fanned four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. UNO TROUBLE MAKER had speed between horses then stalked between foes, clipped heels and steadied into the turn to drop back, came out some in the stretch and weakened. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the run on the far turn before ruling UNO TROUBLE MAKER was the cause of her own trouble.

PRINCE OF ARABIA chased a bit off the rail, split horses leaving the second turn, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under urging to gain the lead a sixteenth out and gamely prevailed. SOI PHET saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside with a bid in the drive and went willingly to the end. LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inside, fought back into the stretch, came a bit off the inside and inched away in midstretch and held third. RIVER ECHO (GB) a bit washy at the gate, also had good early speed three deep, dueled between horses, fought back into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. POINT PIPER five wide into the first turn, pressed the pace three deep to the stretch, continued under left handed urging in upper stretch then had the rider lose the whip in midstretch and weakened. IRISH FREEDOM broke a bit slowly, went up five wide into the first turn, chased outside then three deep into and on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. FERGUSON four wide into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in and had little left for the drive.

STUDLY PERFECTION sped to the early lead outside, angled in and opened a commanding advantage, set all the pace inside and last under urging. DARE TO ENTER chased off the rail then three deep leaving the backstretch, continued off the rail on the second turn and was getting to the winner late. MINISTERTOMYHEART chased off the rail then outside foes leaving the backstretch, came three deep into the stretch, drifted to the inside and got up for the show. LIGHTHOUSE BOOGIE settled off the rail then outside a rival, went around a foe on the second turn, came out into the stretch and was edged for third. WHEN JESUS WALKED angled in on the first turn and saved ground off the pace, came out on the second turn and in the stretch and did not rally. WEIDEN chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail on the second turn and weakened. MOJOLICIOUS dropped back inside, saved ground off the pace to no avail. CALIMONCO FLYER saved ground chasing the winner, dropped back on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch. WHEN JESUS WALKED, MINISTERTOMYHEART and DARE TO ENTER wore calks.