Racing! Our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we sharpen our handicapping skills.

It’s never too early to start thinking about handicapping the Kentucky Derby, especially one in which you can make real solid cases for at least half-a-dozen horses capable of winning.

I thought I’d whet your appetite, or more accurately, let Scott Jagow, editor of the popular Paulick Report, do it for you. He broke down the field by their favored pace, just to give you something to chew on. Now you need to read the entire story, which you can find here. I’m just giving you a preview of his story, but it very nicely helps to divide the running styles of the prospective runners.

Frontrunners (Within a length of lead at second call) Justify (-1.5), Promises Fulfilled (-.9), Flameaway (.25), Noble Indy (.25), Quip (.3), Magnum Moon (.5)

Stalkers (Within two lengths) Solomini (1.3), Bravazo (1.4), Audible (1.4), Good Magic (1.4), Mendelssohn (1.5), Bolt d”Oro (1.6)

Mid-Pack (Within three lengths) Hofburg (2.3), Enticed (2.3), Vino Rosso (2.5), Firenze Fire (2.7), Free Drop Billy (2.8)

Closers (At least four lengths behind), Gronkowski (NA), Lone Sailor (4.1), My Boy Jack (4.6)

Again, the full report, you can find here. You’ll learn what those numbers mean.

And, speaking of the Derby, (in the writing business that’s called a lazy transition) look for Jeff Siegel’s video reports on the Derby starting very soon. Jeff is one of the featured attractions on XBTV and knows a ton about horse racing and handicapping. He’s also known as Brave Helios’ co-owner, along with Eric (Manny) Sondheimer, my top pinch-hitter. Brave Helios, in case you wondered, is just finishing his seventh month since racing. If he doesn’t race soon, we’ll nickname him “Club Med.”

Our handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from Saturday’s 10^th race at Santa Anita.

“The next-to-last race of the day is an allowance event at a flat mile. Top selection is DULUTH (#3). He broke his maiden going a mile at first asking (as our Top Pick at 12-1), and as a general but reliable rule, when a trainer sends a horse two turns first time out, they’re usually live and almost always fit to go the mile, as it wouldn’t be prudent to send a horse two turns if “needing the race,” as a tired runner is more susceptible to injury, not the way you wanna send a horse out for their first attempt. Today, the placement continues to be positive, facing allowance types, but again, the placement alone is so important, just as the route debut told us he was fit and ready, this placement is one of confidence as well, while Joe Talamo rides so many live horses for this barn these days. INFURIATED GARY (#6) strings three races together, telling us he’s finding some good health, which opens the door to good efforts, so no surprise he’s won two in a row while now sent longer to accentuate the good form.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 3-6

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,2

“Negative Notes:

“1 Will Tell - Following a pair of poor efforts, Vladimir Cerin now sends long, which we never like to see. We’d rather see a good effort leading into a longer try to accentuate the good form (see our second choice), or, a debut sprint followed by longer, but not a fan of poor efforts leading into a route simply trying to find a spark.

“TOP PICK: DULUTH (#3 4-1 Talamo)

“SECOND CHOICE: INFURIATED GARY (#6 3-1 Pena)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Marley’s Freedom showed why he was the prohibitive favorite in the $56,000 allowance feature over 6 furlongs. She won by 2 ¼ lengths for Bob Hess and Drayden Van Dyke. He paid $2.60, $2.10 and $2.10. Phantom Proton finished second and Yuvetsi.

“She ran straight as an arrow today,” Van Dyke told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “I had to ask her to switch leads, but she did and finished up great.”

Santa Anita preview

It’s an excellent card, just short of the mega-days they have a couple times a meeting. There are 11 races, starting at noon, including five turf races. I can’t remember the last time the track ran five turf races, of course, with 11 races there is plenty of room for them.

There are two stakes races and four allowance races. Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 8, 6, 9, 5, 8, 7, 9, 7, 8, 10.

The five-horse field is the Grade 2 $200,000 Kona Gold Stakes, going 6 ½ furlongs. Ransom The Moon is the slight favorite at 9-5. He won this race last year but hasn’t raced since a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Phil D’Amato is the trainer and Flavien Prat the jockey. At 2-1, is Bobby Abu Dhabi for Peter Miller and Victor Espinoza. He’s coming off a second in the 7-furlong Triple Bend, having been run down in the stretch by City Of Light. Ten Blessing is 3-1. I guess with only five horses, we might as well name the other two. Calculator is 7-2 and Blameitonthelaw is 8-1. It will be the fifth race at around 2:10 p.m.

The other stakes is the Grade 3 $100,000 American Stakes, which is a mile on the turf. This brings a field of nine led by Blackjackcat, the favorite for Mark Glatt and Kent Desormeaux. The 5-year-old gelding had won four in a row before finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. His last race was a disappointing fifth as the favorite in the Thunder Road Stakes. Kenjisstorm is the second favorite at 3-1. The race is the eighth, going at around 3:50 p.m.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:29 Aqueduct: $100,000 Woodhaven Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Sand Dancer (7-5)

12:40 Laurel: $100,000 Primonetta Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Chalon (9-5)

12:47 Woodbine: $100,000 Wando Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Archaggelos (2-1)

1:10 Laurel: $100,000 Dahlia Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Hawksmoor (7-5)

1:40 Laurel: $125,000 Weber City Miss Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Shamrock Rose (7-5)

1:53 Woodbine: $100,000 Jacques Cartier Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Pink Lloyd (3-5)

2:00 Santa Anita: Grade 2 $200,000 Kona Gold Stakes, 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Ransom The Moon (9-5)

2:10 Laurel: $100,000 Henry S. Clark Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Ring Weekend (7-2)

2:30 Keeneland: Grade 2 $250,000 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Itsinthepost (5-2)

2:40 Laurel: $125,000 Fedrico Tesio Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/18 miles. Favorite: Still Having Fun (5-2)

2:49 Aqueduct: New York Stallion-Park Avenue Division, fillies 3 years old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Pure Silver (5-2)

3:30 Santa Anita: Grade 3 $100,000 American Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Blackjackcat (5-2)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 1 Ancient Secret (3-1)

Mare from Phil D'Amato barn had a very rough trip when finishing a close fifth last out in the Mizdirection but can beat these with better racing luck. Last time she broke slowly, steadied in mid-stretch, then again when in tight late while trying to finish. She might have been best and will be very dangerous with clear sailing.

Friday Result: The longer price (Ya Gotta Wanna $13.40) of our two exacta partners won but Gosilently tired to finish third. Last we checked they don't pay off on exactas that finish 1-3.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 6 Racies Favorite (2-1)

Trainer Monty Arrossa has his 2 year olds ready to fire in their debuts, saddling three winners in the seven freshmen races conducted last weekend. This filly showed a nice stride while well in hand at the wire of first 12.4 drill and went nicely under hand ride in latest 12.3 solo work. I also liked the way No. 2 Jess My Joy galloped out in last 12.4 drill and suggest a 2-6 exacta box.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

YA GOTTA WANNA stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival into and on the second turn and into the stretch, came out in the lane and rallied under urging to wear down the runner-up late. WINNING ELEMENT prompted the pace three deep then stalked outside a rival on the backstretch, bid again alongside the runner-up on the second turn to take the lead into the stretch, fought back in deep stretch but could not hold off the winner. GOSILENTLY dueled between horses then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back along the rail on the second turn and in the stretch and bested the others. LAUREN'S LADD three deep into the first turn, angled in and chased inside, moved up along the rail leaving the backstretch and was in tight off heels a half mile out, continued inside on the second turn, split horses in midstretch and lacked the needed rally. DARK ENERGY angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, split rivals leaving the second turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. GRAY ADMIRAL came off the rail and chased outside a rival, split foes three deep leaving the second turn and into the stretch and also lacked the needed response in the drive. SARATOGA MORNING pulled along the inside to press the pace then stalked along the rail to the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. IT'S A NEW YEAR hesitated to be away behind the field, settled off the rail then a bit off the fence, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and did not rally.

QUIET NO MORE four wide into the first turn, bid three deep between foes leaving that turn then stalked between rivals on the backstretch, re-bid three wide between foes on the second turn, took a short lead outside the runner-up nearing midstretch and gamely prevailed under urging. DIZZY DIVA came a bit off the rail on the first turn and bid between foes leaving that turn, stalked just off the rail on the backstretch, re-bid between horses on the second turn, put a head in front into the stretch, fought back inside the winner in the final furlong and continued willingly late. REINAHERMOSA settled a bit off the rail then chased inside, came out some in the stretch, went around a rival in deep stretch to gain the show. ALBEIT three deep into the first turn, bid four wide leaving that turn then stalked outside foes, bid again four wide on the second turn, fell back some leaving that turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. DEL MAR DIVA was a half step slow into stride when the ground broke out behind, sped to the early lead a bit off the rail, angled in and dueled inside then inched away on the backstretch, fought back along the rail on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the drive.

WAMPUS four wide into the first turn, stalked off the rail to the stretch, bid outside the runner-up under urging in deep stretch and got up on the line. MISTY SLEW between horses early, stalked a bit off the rail, took the lead outside a rival leaving the backstretch, angled in on the second turn, came off the fence into the stretch, drifted inward through the final furlong, fought back in deep stretch and was edged in the final stride. EYE OF THE RIVER six wide into the first turn, stalked outside then three deep, continued off the inside into the stretch and bested the rest. SOLAR CORONA four wide into the first turn, chased off the rail, continued outside leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and improved position. CURLINA CURLINA came a bit off the rail on the first turn then stalked inside, split horses midway on the second turn, angled to the inside again into the stretch and lacked a rally. SMART LITTLE DEVIL chased inside then just off the rail, split rivals into the second turn, continued a bit off the inside and did not rally. ANGEL ON POINT three deep into the first turn, chased outside a rival then between foes, continued three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. WHACKED five wide into the first turn, stalked three deep, angled to the inside leaving the second turn and into the stretch and also weakened. STELLA SWEEPER a bit washy at the gate, settled just off the rail then inside, came out on the second turn and did not rally. EMPIRE ZONE had speed between foes then angled in, set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and gave way.

MARLEY'S FREEDOM stalked four wide then three deep on the turn, came out into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up to gain the lead, drifted in and battled outside that one under urging in the drive and inched away late. PHANTOM PROTON stalked between horses then bid between rivals into the stretch, also drifted in through the final furlong while fighting back and could not match the winner late. YUVETSI had speed between horses to stalk the pace, was in tight off heels five eighths out then steadied midway on the backstretch, angled in and tracked the pacesetter inside, got through along the rail in the stretch and held third. TIME FOR EBBY stalked inside then steadied in tight midway on the backstretch and came off the rail, angled out into the stretch and just missed the show. CITIZEN KITTY close up stalking the pace between horses, dropped back a bit off the rail on the turn and weakened. SURRENDER NOW had speed between horses then inched away, angled in midway on the backstretch, set the pace inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch and also weakened. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the run midway on the backstretch but made no change when they ruled the trouble to the third and fourth finishers was caused by SURRENDER NOW.

DREAMER'S REALITY stalked outside then alongside a rival, came four wide into the stretch, bid three deep to gain the lead in midstretch and gamely prevailed under urging. SIR EDDIE stumbled in the second step, went up between foes then chased off the rail, came three wide into the stretch, bid between foes in midstretch and continued willingly toward the inside. HIT THE SEAM chased outside then three deep leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and finished well. BOB'S BAD BOY chased a bit off the rail then inside, split rivals leaving the hill, continued inside into the stretch, went around a rival in deep stretch and was outfinished. CLEM DELA CLEM dropped back and angled in outside a rival when unhurried, continued off the rail leaving the hill, swung four wide into the stretch and bested the others. BLACK STORM had good early speed and dueled between horses, fought back between foes leaving the hill and weakened in the stretch. SIDEPOCKET ACTION went up inside to duel for the lead, put a head in front leaving the hill, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. ANIMO dueled four wide then three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch and also weakened in the final furlong. GOLDEN GLADIATOR dropped back off the rail then angled in on the hill, swung out into the stretch and did not rally. STAY GOLDEN dueled between horses then dropped back and stalked inside leaving the hill and had little left for the stretch. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

AMERICAN ALL STAR stalked between horses then off the rail, angled in on the turn and bid inside, took the lead leaving the turn, inched away in the stretch, met the bid of the runner-up a sixteenth out under urging and proved best. NOVA stalked outside then three deep, went four wide leaving the turn and five wide into the stretch, drifted in and bid outside the winner a sixteenth out but could not quite match that one late. TROJAN TIME stalked between horses on the backstretch and turn, steadied in tight a quarter mile out, came out four wide into the stretch and picked up the show. CHIQUILIN saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn, steadied in tight along the rail into the stretch and lacked the needed response. MOON JUICE bobbled slightly at the start, chased between horses then outside a rival leaving the turn, steadied in tight off heels into the stretch and lacked a rally. SIERRA ECHO had speed between rivals then dueled outside a foe, battled between horses leaving the turn, cam three wide into the stretch and weakened. EVENING REWARD chased outside, dropped back off the rail on the turn and also weakened. MAN O WORK went up inside to duel for the lead, came a bit off the rail on the turn, was between foes leaving the turn and gave way in the stretch. ST. SIMEON steadied at the start, settled outside then three deep, angled in a bit off the rail on the turn and had little left for the stretch. A claim of foul by the rider of the third finisher against the runner-up for alleged interference leaving the turn was not allowed by the stewards, who ruled the videotape failed to substantiate the claim.

FRUITY (IRE) angled in and settled a bit off the rail then outside a rival, split horses on the second turn, came three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up outside foes late. JUST BOOKIN four wide into the first turn, chased outside, came four wide into the stretch and finished with interest between foes late. JILL MADDEN stalked between horses, bid three deep leaving the backstretch ,dueled outside a rival leaving the second turn to take a short lead, inched away inside in the stretch and was caught on the line. PASCHALITSA stalked three deep to the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and was outfinished. BRIARTIC GAL chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival, split horses into the second turn, came three deep into the stretch and was outkicked between foes late. VERONICA BAY settled outside a rival chasing the pace, also came three wide into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. GIFT OF A STAR saved ground chasing the pace, split horses leaving the second turn and lacked a rally. I'M NO PATSY stalked the pace inside, dropped back on the second turn and weakened. ANITA G. had good early speed and angled in on the first turn, dueled inside, fought back on the second turn and weakened in the drive. WHERE'S THE D dueled outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back leaving the second turn and weakened.

CATS BLAME chased off the inside then a bit off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up nearing the wire. R CHA CHA had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away past the eighth pole, drifted out despite right handed urging to bump a rival in deep stretch and was caught late. GENERAL MACH FOUR dueled outside the runner-up, fought back in midstretch, steadied when bumped by that one in deep stretch and held third. DR. TROUTMAN stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out in upper stretch, angled in past midstretch and was outfinished. SWINGING STAR settled outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and found his best stride late. DREAMS OF VALOR chased off the inside, angled in some leaving the hill and could not offer the necessary late response. SMUGGLER UNION stalked off the rail then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. AWESOME HEIGHTS settled off the pace inside, came out in upper stretch and could not summon the necessary response. IN MY SIGHT hopped at the start, pulled between horses then chased outside, angled in alongside a rival leaving the hill and did not rally. CURLY'S WATERFRONT saved ground chasing the pace to the stretch and weakened. Following a stewards' inquiry and a claim of foul by the rider of GENERAL MACH FOUR against the runner-up for alleged interference in deep stretch, no change was made when the stewards ruled the incident did not alter the original order of finish. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

GIDDYMEISTER broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then angled in, moved up inside on the turn, came out into the stretch, bid four wide a sixteenth out to gain the lead under some urging in deep stretch and won clear. ALTERNATE RHYTHM dueled outside a rival, fought back between horses in the final furlong and edged a rival for the place. OUR TIGER'S BOY stalked outside then alongside a rival, bid three deep into the stretch and in midstretch and was edged for second. QUAD a step slow into stride, went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn and in the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. NORTH COUNTY GUY stalked a bit off the rail then inside into the turn, came out a bit into the stretch and lacked a rally. BONAVENTURE chased between horses then outside a rival, continued off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. DOHENY BEACH stalked three deep then between foes leaving the backstretch ,angled in on the turn and did not rally. BOHAN chased outside then five wide leaving the backstretch, angled in three deep on the turn and into the stretch and also lacked the necessary response. TANDY RIDE dropped back off the rail then angled in, found the inside into and on the turn and in the stretch and was not a threat. POWERFUL THIRST chased between foes then three wide between rivals leaving the backstretch, dropped back off the rail on the turn, angled in some nearing the stretch and gave way.