Racing! Leftovers from a wet and foggy Preakness

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we look forward to the Belmont Stakes.

Bob Baffert was in a good mood as he met with reporters outside the stakes barn at 7:30 a.m. on Sunday. Justify had come out of the race in good shape and Bob was very bullish on the future.

In Sunday’s newsletter, we speculated on the fact that Saturday’s race might have been a bounce race—a race where a bad race follows a good one. Bob brought up the exact same thing and even said the horse won on 90%. He won the Preakness on a bounce? How good is this colt?

For a look at a lot of the things that Baffert said and who might be in the Belmont field please click here.

The first impression by the media, including me, after the race was that Justify looked vulnerable. But after sleeping on it, I think he’s going to win the Triple Crown. Or maybe I’m just wishing he will win the Triple Crown.

He got caught up in a battle with one good horse in Good Magic. It’s going to drain the tank. Yet, the good ones, even when it looks like they are on “E,” still find a way to win. Plus, Mike Smith said he could have gotten more out of Justify.

I heard from a few of you about the comments on NBC about Justify’s performance. Our handicapping teacher, Rob Henie, was bothered by the comments of some of the pundits. So, he sent his subscribers of the excellent West Coast Handicapping Report this commentary. (He has an East Coast version, too.)

So, here’s what Rob had to say.

“The second leg is over, Justify is still perfect, and yet, some really odd views from some of these guys:

“NBC’s Randy Moss: ‘When there's four horses right there at the wire, it means it was a slow race. It's gonna be tough for Justify to win the Belmont.’

“Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker: ‘It is plainly obvious -- to me, anyway -- that Justify tailed off his best form in the Preakness. His preliminary Beyer Figure of 97, the lowest of his career, is strong supporting evidence. But you didn’t have to know what Justify’s Beyer was to know that even though he won, his Preakness performance was short of what we have come to expect from him. For one, Justify had to dig deep to prevail despite getting a trip that was easier than the one he got in the Kentucky Derby, when he contested a scorching early pace and still bounded away from his field through the stretch.’

“Trainer Chad Brown: ‘That's not the trip we wanted so I'm disappointed. We wanted to sit off the pace.’

“OK, first, Moss: How does a cluster of runners at the wire, automatically reflect it was a ‘slow race?’ It doesn't. The late addition on the scene by a couple of closers, was simply the byproduct of an early confrontation, putting away Good Magic before having to deal with others. How does this effort translate to – ‘it's gonna make it tough to win the Belmont?’ We believe the complete opposite (see below).

“As for Watchmaker: As I've previously said, I’ve never been a fan of Beyers, a number indicative of a good effort producing a high number, and a bad effort reflecting a poor number, with no regard to the trip.

“Now, Brown: That may not have been the trip you wanted Chad, but if you took back, allowing Smith and Justify to relax early and throughout, you likely would have been running for second money, all the while, soundly defeated. And as for Jose Ortiz saying he ‘messed up,’ he gets on a ton of live horses for Chad, of course he's gonna take blame, though, what really could he do? Sit back and allow Justify to get comfortable? Or, press the issue and hope to take Justify out of his game by eyeballing him throughout.

“Our Take: Expectations are a funny thing in racing. Justify has been so built up the past two weeks, anything less than a trouncing would be conceived as a failure. The reality is, the sealed track at Churchill was different than this Pimlico sealed surface, and as we often state, slow fractions while eyeballing another horse, aren't the same as slow fractions relaxing by yourself. So, he was running over a very muddy, off track, not as quick as the Churchill surface, in this weird thing called ‘fog,’ was confronted throughout, eyeballing his rival, putting that one away before having to deal with a couple others who benefited from the initial 7/8, yet, still prevailed. Seriously, what's the problem? Throw in the fact he was actually battle tested down the lane for the first time, and I believe he'll provide a big Belmont effort over the longer, more methodical distance, an easier trip, settling well on the front end, and as long as he takes to the distance fine, we expect his Belmont performance to be fantastic.”

Santa Anita review

Chalk one up for the old guy. Soi Phet, a 10-year-old gelding (like a 10-year-old could be anything else), snuck through a line of horses to win the $100,000 Crystal Water Stakes, for Cal-breds going a mile on the turf. He beat some pretty good horses, such as stakes winner Ashleylovessuger, who at 7 has his AARP card.

Soi Phet, running for Leonard Powell and ridden by Alonso Quinonez, won by just a head and produced a huge payoff. He paid $96.80, $33.80 and $15.60. B Squared was second and Well Developed was third.

“His last race took nothing out of him,” Powell said. I knew he was doing well and he’s rewarding us. … We’ll race him as long as he’s happy. I hope another year, but he’ll tell us. There’s a race at Los Alamitos in July. I’ll race him once or twice at Del Mar again in September and then he’ll get a vacation and we’ll try it again next year.”

It was his 58^th start.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday.

Woodbine: $100,000 Ballade Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Scotty’s Model ($4.60)

Santa Anita: $100,000 Crystal Water Stakes, Cal-breds 3 and up, one mile on the turf. Winner: Soi Phet ($96.80)

Final thought

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa.

Now, here is the star of the show, Sunday’s results. We’ll be back on Thursday.

PRINCE EARL came in some just after the start, stalked off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up to take the lead in midstretch and won clear under some urging. RULE NUMBER EIGHT sped to the early lead off the rail, dueled outside a rival, drifted inward in midstretch, could not match the winner but was clearly second best. OLDER BROTHER chased off the rail then between foes leaving the hill, drifted in some in midstretch and gained the show. JET SET RULER between rivals early, stalked off the rail then inside leaving the hill and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. COOL YOUR JETS broke out and was bumped and forced in at the start, stalked between horses then three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. ANIMO went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MASTERPIECE DAY broke a bit slowly then ducked in just after the start, saved ground, moved up inside midway on the hill, continued along the rail into the stretch and also weakened. CLEM DELA CLEM chased four wide midway on the hill then angled in outside a rival leaving the hill and weakened in the drive. Rail on hill at zero.

NOBLE NICK four wide early, dueled three deep, battled outside the runner-up through the drive and held on gamely between foes late under urging. JUNIOR GILLIAM had good early speed and dueled between horses, fought back just off the rail to the stretch and went willingly to the end. GENTRIFIED chased off the rail then outside a rival on the backstretch and turn, came out four wide into the stretch and finished with interest outside the top pair. MADELYN'S WILD MAX stalked just off the rail on the backstretch and turn, came out into the stretch, angled inward in deep stretch and was outfinished. CARVILLE went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn and weakened in the final furlong.

ULTIMATE BANGO went up inside to duel for the lead, inched away leaving the hill, surrendered the advantage in upper stretch then came back on under urging and steady handling late to prove best. SIR EDDIE sped to the early lead off the rail then dueled three deep, stalked outside a rival leaving the hill, bid again outside the winner to gained the advantage in the drive, inched away in midstretch, battled outside the winner in deep stretch and was outgamed. HIT THE SEAM chased a bit off the rail, came out three deep into the stretch and closed steadily late. WRIT LARGE chased off the rail then outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and also found his best stride late. CAPTAIN BUZZKILL stalked just off the rail, was in a bit tight off heels onto the dirt crossing, was three deep in upper stretch, angled in some and had a mild late bid. GOLD N BOLD hopped slightly in a bit of a slow start, dropped back off the rail then angled in on the hill, split horses in upper stretch and lacked the needed rally. FLY FIRST CLASS went up between horses to duel for the lead, angled in and stalked inside leaving the hill and weakened in the drive. TUTANKHAMUN dropped back off the inside then angled in just off the rail leaving the hill and lacked a response in the stretch. Rail on hill at zero.

BLAZE'N PROSPECTOR had speed between rivals to duel for the lead, took a short advantage in upper stretch, inched away in midstretch then held on under urging. FOUR GAELS dueled three deep to the stretch, had the winner edge away in midstretch then came back on late. OMDURMAN stalked off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and picked up the show. RAFTER ONE chased a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, came out into the stretch, angled in past midstretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. LAMBO LUXX a bit slow into stride, settled inside, came out into the stretch and also lacked the needed late response. PUNDY went up inside to duel for the lead, put a head in front on the turn, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

GRYFFINDOR chased four wide between foes then three deep, continued between rivals into and on the turn, came out in midstretch and closed with a rush under some left handed urging to get up on the wire. ELEAZAR WARRIOR had speed between horses then dueled inside, fought back along the rail in the stretch and held on gamely but was tagged on the line. OUR TIGER'S BOY dueled three deep then outside the runner-up on the turn and through the stretch and fought back gamely to the end. CAPTAIN N. BARRON saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and finished with interest inside. BONAVENTURE five wide early, stalked four wide then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. AUTISM IS HERE had good early speed and dueled between horses then stalked off the rail on the turn, came out some into the stretch and weakened. PAPA CABALLERO chased between horses then a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn, came out into the stretch and lacked a further response. GOING AWAY PARTY stalked between foes then four wide on the backstretch and three deep on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. SCORPION EXCESS broke slowly, dropped back off the rail, angled in on the turn and did not rally. THAT'S GOLD chased between horses then outside a rival into and on the turn and weakened.

COOL GREEN saved ground stalking the pace, bid along the rail into the stretch to gain the lead, inched clear and held under urging. SOUTER (GB) chased a bit off the rail then inside, came out leaving the turn and six wide into the stretch, drifted in and got up for the place between foes late. CLOSING TIME settled off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch and gained the show outside foes on the line. AWESOME HEIGHTS angled in after the right hand curve and chased inside, came out leaving the hill and five wide into the stretch, drifted in and was edged for a minor award late. GENERAL MACH FOUR had speed off the rail then dueled three deep, stalked three wide on the hill and four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. R CHA CHA had good early speed and dueled off the rail, angled in a bit off the fence leaving the hill, was between horses into the stretch and weakened. SMUGGLER UNION stalked outside a rival then between horses leaving the hill and a bit off the rail into the stretch and also weakened. TREASURE HUNTER dueled between horses then outside a rival leaving the hill, was three wide into the stretch and also weakened. Rail on hill at zero.

BEAS WILD CAT had good early speed and dueled outside a rival then inched clear into the turn, widened under urging in the stretch, drifted out and proved best. TENGS RHYTHM broke out and bumped a rival then was forced in just after the start, chased between horses then a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and gained the place. TAKES TWO TO TENGA broke a bit slowly and was squeezed and steadied between foes, dropped back just off the rail, came out three deep into the stretch and gained the show late. NAUGHTY SOPHIE also squeezed at the start, went up inside to stalk the pace, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, drifted inward in the drive and weakened. A LITTLE ROMANCE settled outside then three deep, angled in alongside a rival on the turn and did not rally. BREATHLESS CHARM stalked three deep between foes, fell back off the rail on the turn and weakened. PRAY FOR CORDAY pressed the pace inside the winner then stalked into the turn, came out into the stretch and also weakened. MUCH TOO MUCH stalked between horses, dropped back a bit off the rail on the turn and had little left for the stretch. HEATHER'S WISH chased between horses then a bit off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn and gave way. GAMEZAPPER stalked four wide, continued three deep on the turn, drifted five wide into the stretch and also gave way.

LIFE OF ILLUSION dueled four wide between horses, took a short lead three deep into the turn, battled between rivals on the turn, angled to the inside into the stretch, fought back along the rail through the drive and gamely prevailed under urging. CONQUEST FLATTERME prompted the pace five wide on the backstretch and four wide into the turn, battled three deep on the turn then outside the winner into and through the stretch and went willingly to the end. ZUSHA dueled inside, stalked leaving the turn, came out in upper stretch and bested the others. PRINCESS DORIAN saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SMILING TIGRESS chased outside a rival and three deep into the turn, continued four wide on the turn and five wide into the stretch and weakened. LIBBY'S TAIL dueled between horses then stalked between rivals on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and also weakened. WE ALL HAVE DREAMS pressed the pace between horses then stalked three deep between foes on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted in, gave way and was eased in the drive.

SOI PHET stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch and again in midstretch and rallied between horses under left handed urging to get up on the wire. B SQUARED saved ground stalking the pace, went outside a rival on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and closed willingly four wide on the line. WELL DEVELOPED angled in and dueled inside, regained a slim advantage in the stretch and continued gamely to the wire. ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR angled in and chased outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and finished well five wide on the line. TULE FOG between horses early, dueled outside a rival then between horses on the backstretch, put a head in front leaving the second turn, fought back outside a foe through the stretch and continued gamely between horses late. WARD 'N JERRY chased between horses then inside on the second turn, came out some in the stretch and was outfinished. ACCOUNTABILITY saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside in the drive and also was outfinished. CAMINO DEL PARAISO chased three deep to the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. SMOKEY IMAGE stalked outside a rival then bid three deep on the backstretch and into the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. DESERT GENERAL chased outside a rival then off the rail, continued between foes on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. RYE saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch then angled back in and did not rally.