NFL’s Deflategate a complication for Las Vegas oddsmakers

Usually, it’s a matter such as a groin pull, weather or a positive drug test that causes Las Vegas bookmakers’ heads to spin.

Now, it’s the implications of “Deflategate.”

By upholding New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s four-game suspension to open the regular season, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has restored some calm to a situation that remains “highly fluid,” according to one of Las Vegas’ most powerful linemakers.

“It’s not your normal area that we have to consider, but that’s the modern world we live in — someone suing,” said Jay Rood, director of the MGM Resorts race and sports book that establishes lines for 10 properties along the Strip.

Soon after the Patriots won Super Bowl XLIX on Feb. 1, Rood established New England as the 5-1 favorite to win this coming season’s championship.

When the league determined Brady was involved in the manipulating of air pressure in footballs used in New England’s 45-7 rout of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC championship game, it slapped the four-time Super Bowl winner with a four-game suspension that brought an immediate appeal by Brady and inflated the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds to 7-1 at MGM.

Tuesday’s decision by Goodell raised the figure to 8-1, while the Colts’ odds dipped from 8-1 to 6-1, and those of the defending AFC West-champion Denver Broncos shrank from 10-1 to 8-1.

MGM lists the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks as 7-2 favorites to win the Super Bowl, followed by conference rival Green Bay at 9-2, and the Dallas Cowboys at 8-1.

The Patriots situation, however, is receiving special treatment from oddsmakers.

Because of the NFL Players Assn.’s attempt to overturn the suspension in court, Rood and Westgate Las Vegas Superbook director Jay Kornegay say they’ve tightened limits on the amount that can be bet on New England.

Rood said that though he typically allows preseason gamblers to bet as much as $10,000 on an NFL team’s over/under win total, he’s cut the maximum bet to $3,000 on the Patriots’ figure of 10 1/2.

The number was 10 right after Goodell affirmed Brady’s four-game suspension, Rood said, but bettors swarmed to the Patriots, forcing the bookmaker to adjust.

“We’re proceeding with a lot of caution,” Rood said. “That’s the only way you can really treat this now.”

The Patriots are expected to start 6-foot-3, second-year pro Jimmy Garoppolo in Brady’s absence against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the season opener on Sept. 10, at Buffalo against the Bills on Sept. 20, versus Jacksonville on Sept. 27 and at Dallas on Oct. 11.

“From what I’m hearing, Jimmy G is going to be more than a capable replacement and [Patriots Coach Bill] Belichick usually always gets his guys ready to go,” Rood said about the 10 1/2 number.

“What I don’t want to do is have a knee-jerk reaction.”

Drastic changes in odds and totals allow the sharpest bettors to jump at “middle” wagers. In this case, they’d bet the “over” on the lowest set Patriots win total, and the “under” on the higher number, hoping to win both bets.

Such is the case with the Patriots’ position as a three-point favorite in their season opener against the Steelers.

Kornegay went as far as removing the bet from his big board, explaining, “[I] still think [Brady] will appeal in federal court and get [an] injunction to play Week 1.”

At the MGM books, manager Jeff Stoneback said that though bettors can wager as much as $30,000 on a regular-season game, his book allows $15,000 bets this far ahead of Week 1. The limit on the Patriots-Steelers game is $5,000.

“Home team, capable backup [quarterback],” Rood said in explaining New England’s favored status in the opener. “We’ve put some strong limits on it. If Brady plays, that number could jump to six.”

Odds have even been set by online casinos as to when Brady will return.

A representative for MyTopSportsbooks.com reported it’s 2-1 that Brady will win an injunction and play and said it’s 2-3 that a judge will decide the matter without a settlement or the case’s getting dropped.

Rood has dissected the situation.

“Goodell has reaffirmed his decision. I think that’s going to be a real dogfight to get that overturned,” he said. “Do they have enough time from a legal standpoint? I don’t know. Injunction? Maybe.

“If you were looking at a suspension for a criminal activity, you’d be looking at it different. But an internal procedure/policy of a private organization? That’s a real hairy area for courts.

“So I don’t have good feelings that this will play out in Brady’s favor. You sign a contract as a player to abide by what the commissioner says … the commissioner has spoken. Twice already. The league has freedom to punish acts that are not in the best interest of the league.”

Still, the bookmaker’s mind turns.

“We’re in sit-and-wait mode, but I believe we’ll have Jimmy Garoppolo as the Patriots’ starting quarterback for the first four games, [so] I might put up an over/under on how many New England wins there’ll be with him as a side [proposition bet],” Rood said.

“I want to capitalize on all the shenanigans.”

lance.pugmire@latimes.com

Twitter: @latimespugmire