USC mailbag: Whose fault are all of USC's injuries? (Hint: Probably no one's)

Oct. 13, 2017 6:30 AM PT

Every week*, The Times’ USC beat reporter, Zach Helfand, will answer your questions. Tweet yours to @zhelfand or email them to zach.helfand@latimes.com. And after every USC game, you can leave a voice message on the USC Overtime hotline, at (213) 357-0984, for a call-in podcast posted the day after every game.

*Hopefully

Welcome to the most important two-game stretch of USC’s season. Saturday’s game against Utah may very well determine the Pac-12 South division champion. If USC wins that one, the next week at Notre Dame might determine whether USC can make the playoff. And if USC loses to Utah, well, Notre Dame is still Notre Dame.

The Utes are better than expected, with an excellent front seven and a proven coach. Let’s get to the questions.

I wouldn’t. Injuries are usually random — or at least no one yet has been able to identify reliable markers that would signal an injury. The Freakonomics crew looked at this a few years ago. They concluded:

“There is a lot we don’t definitively know (yet). How evenly (or unevenly) are injuries distributed among teams? What sort of preventive measures work and which don’t? Do better players tend to get injured less? If so, why? Maybe they’re in better condition or in better position; maybe they’re protected better by teammates and officials?”

There haven’t been a lot of rigorous studies in this area. I’d guess that some NFL teams have compiled injury data to look for patterns, but anything they’ve learned they would certainly not like to share.

Some trainers appear to have regimens that can prevent certain injuries, but be careful drawing firm conclusions from just a few seasons’ worth of results.

On the flip side, I guess it’s possible that a team’s strength and conditioning staff can be incompetent. But that’s not the case here. Remember, the Trojans had relatively few injuries last season and USC hasn’t changed its staff or its routine very much.

So the most likely culprit is bad luck.

Or, you can do what I do when something goes wrong, which is to blame Dylan Hernandez.

The offense doesn’t actually go three-and-out all that much. It’s done so 11 times this season. Compare that with Michigan State last week. The Spartans went three-and-out (or failed on a fourth-down conversion without a single first down) nine times. In a single game. A single game that they won!

Granted, Michigan State’s offense isn’t great, Michigan’s defense is, and half of that game was played in a monsoon. So let’s look for a fairer comparison. How about the best offense in the country: Oklahoma? The Sooners have seven three-and-outs in five games. (That’s 1.4 a game compared with USC’s 1.8.)

So USC actually doesn’t go three-and-out very often. It didn’t at all against Oregon State.

Really, the problem with the offense is its turnovers.

To put a somewhat arbitrary number on it, around 30%? I think USC’s offensive struggles have mostly been other things, like bad execution on the offensive line (not only by replacements), some off games by Sam Darnold, some play-calling issues and, above all, turnovers again.

But let’s look at your question a different way: How much of the struggles on offense can be attributed to not having good enough depth at offensive line and receiver? The offensive line can get a pass for three injuries in one game against Washington State; that is a lot for any team to handle.

At receiver, USC recruited five scholarship players a year ago. Tyler Vaughns has developed into a legitimate starting player. Velus Jones Jr. has shown explosiveness but not yet enough dependability catching the ball, and Michael Pittman Jr. could become more of a factor as he gets fully healthy after his ankle sprain.

But there is not a star receiver in the class. And unless development comes quickly, missing on that recruiting class is going to hurt. It already has.

Clay Helton says he is hopeful that Porter Gustin will return from his broken big toe and torn biceps by next week, before Notre Dame. If not, then the following week.

It’s still tentative, but a good sign, especially combined with tight end Daniel Imatorbhebhe also nearing a return.

You, Sir Sneakerhead of the O.C., are accurate. Helton has hinted that McGrath would receive a scholarship soon. He’s said publicly that “I foresee it happening in the future as soon as I can get our numbers right.”

If USC has one to give, what does that mean? USC could be hesitant because it already has two scholarships tied up with a kicker and a punter — both of whom are backups. That has put the Trojans in a jam.

But I still expect McGrath to get a scholarship at some point relatively soon.

The offense kind of is getting first downs. It averages 23.5 first downs per game, which is a respectable but not great 30th in the nation. Last season’s offense, which I think we can agree was a good offense, averaged 24.8 first downs per game.

It’s a necessity thing at this point in the season, but there are two players to keep an eye on: Brandon Pili and Randal Grimes.

Pili is an enormous man with a lot of potential. His only handicap is that he comes from Alaska, where he didn’t see the same competition level that he’s seeing now. USC abandoned his redshirt because of the season-ending injury to Marlon Tuipulotu. He’s interesting to watch because his upside is high.

Grimes also had his redshirt removed, mostly because USC needs help on special teams. But if he’s playing, the Trojans might as well give him a shot at receiver.

The mailbag plans to run out its eligibility. And maybe petition for a medical redshirt. I had a cold earlier this season.

This is John. He is a fantastic person and was my sports editor when I was an intern at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He asks each week about Notre Dame. Please do not hold that against him.

I think Notre Dame will be a slight favorite at home.

Nope. I’ll have a better idea closer to the end of the season.

Sir Sneakerhead … no.