Analysis: Kashkari struggles to court Donnelly hard-line GOP backers

GOP gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari may have the money, the support of big-name Republicans and all the trappings of a polished campaign. But he is struggling to overcome what is arguably his biggest obstacle: the most vocal members of his own party.

Kashkari poured an additional $1 million of his own money into his effort Friday, the day after a debate in which GOP rival Tim Donnelly — who is in debt, cannot afford advertising and has only a grass-roots campaign — clearly had the support of those Republicans.

Donnelly’s natural backers are the hard-line activists who consistently vote in primary elections and who formed a loud cheering section for him Thursday evening, while jeering Kashkari. They crammed the room to the point that the fire marshal ordered people out.

“The more conservative faction tends to be the louder ones; they tend to turn out in force,” GOP activist Alex Burrola of Fullerton said.

Along with most political observers, he predicted that the June 3 primary turnout would be low and dominated by such voters.

Kashkari, a former U.S. Treasury official, is aligned with the moderate, business-friendly, mainstream Republicans who make up the rest of the California GOP. But many of them don’t know who he is and won’t necessarily vote.

He is simultaneously trying to introduce himself to those voters and prod them to the polls through television and mail advertising. His latest cash infusion raises the amount he has plucked from his own wallet to $2 million.

“I think he’s doing all he can,” Republican strategist Reed Galen said. “Whether that’s enough, we’ll know the night of June 3.”

The Thursday night debate, aired live on the popular “John and Ken Show” during rush hour on KFI AM (640), crystallized the challenge that Kashkari faces.

From the moment the candidates entered the debate room, the audience’s predisposition was clear. People rose and waved flags and signs backing Donnelly for governor. When Kashkari entered, some booed.

During commercial breaks, Donnelly mingled with the crowd and took pictures, while Kashkari often remained seated on stage.

Kashkari adviser Aaron McLear said the audience tilt was no surprise. He maintained that Kashkari’s message was for undecided Republicans listening on the radio or reading news coverage of the debate.

“We knew it would be a hostile environment, but let’s be honest, this was a Donnelly rally, not a debate,” McLear said.

Donnelly could not be reached for comment.

Analysts said both men accomplished what they needed to, but neither had a clear victory.

Donnelly, an assemblyman from San Bernardino County and tea party favorite, courted the core activists. Kashkari, who has been trailing in the polls, launched several attacks on his rival — the GOP front-runner — and pitched to those who would like to see a “big tent” state GOP.

“No one knocked someone out,” said Jon Fleischman, a prominent conservative blogger. “Donnelly scored more points. The challenge for Donnelly is … this is like having the ball game in your own field, you’re supposed to win…. I don’t feel that is what occurred.”

The critical question is whether the passion on display for Donnelly on Thursday night will put any more votes into his column. Donnelly said more than 1,000 supporters will be touting his message Saturday as they walk precincts in several dozen communities around the state.

Such an effort is more typical of the Iowa caucuses than of gubernatorial campaigns in a giant state like California. Kashkari’s team is confident that their more traditional approach — the TV and mail ads, some canvassing and phone banks — will win the day.

“I don’t know that the last statewide election in California was won by knocking on doors alone,” McLear said.

Still, he acknowledged that Donnelly has a base of support that is more visible and ardent than is evident for Kashkari, a first-time candidate.

“There’s no question the assemblyman has a base of support from his days as a minuteman and being a leader of the tea party … and Neel has never been elected to office and just announced his campaign a few months ago,” he said.

Asked whether that obstacle could be overcome in the next 2 1/2 weeks, McLear replied, “I sure hope so.”

seema.mehta@latimes.com