On the morning after The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College released a poll showing the margins in the presidential and U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania in the low single digits, a second independent university pollster came out with similar results.
Quinnipiac University, which showed Mitt Romney trailing Barack Obama by 12 points a few weeks ago, now shows the Republican down by four, 50 percent to 46 percent. And in the Senate match up between U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and political novice Tom Smith, the incumbent is up by just three points, 48 percent to 45 percent.
Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, called the Senate race "too close to call."
The Muhlenberg poll had the presidential race at four points and the Senate race at two.
Smith, who had been written off early in the cycle, announced late yesterday that he fronted his campaign another $10 million of his own money in the third quarter to bolster an aggressive television ad strategy. In total, Smith has spent around $16 million of his own money on his quest to unseat Casey.
Casey's campaign, which raised $1.5 million in the last three months to Smith's $1.6 million in donations, sent a fundraising plea Tuesday morning.
"There’s no doubt: Smith is serious about bankrolling his campaign to victory this fall," Larry Smar, Casey's campaign manager said in the fundraiser email. "And with the help of national Tea Party groups – Smith’s using this influx of cash to flood the airways with misleading attacks on Bob’s record."
RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polls, moved the Pennsylvania Senate on Tuesday from leans Democrat to a tossup. As the polls began to close over the last week or so, national campaign handicappers started shifting their ranking of the Pennsylvania Senate race from likely, or safe Democrat to leans Democrat.
Meanwhile, as The Morning Call reported in its poll story today, the presidential race tightening in Pennsylvania does not mean the Romney campaign is suddenly going to invest millions to win the state. A Romney adviser confirmed that view, telling Politico, “I won't blow smoke at you with Pennsylvania and Michigan, even though there are polls showing that they’re in sight.
“I absolutely believe they’re close,” the adviser said. “It’s just, to go in, to move three points in Pennsylvania is different than moving three points in New Hampshire.”
Copyright © 2014, Los Angeles Times