Analysis: California governor’s bad week shows he is not infallible

SACRAMENTO, Calif. For the first 41/2 years of his administration, California Gov. Jerry Brown seemed politically invincible, but in just one day in this final week of the legislative session he saw key parts of his 2015 agenda collapse.

Republicans refused to raise gasoline taxes that Brown says are desperately needed to fix California’s crumbling roads and bridges, and the oil industry won an ugly skirmish over the Golden State’s landmark climate-change bill that would have cut oil consumption in half by 2030.

The surprising turn of events resonated around the Capitol on Thursday, prompting questions about the wisdom of Brown’s heralded strategy as a leader often more comfortable pulling levers behind-the-scenes to encourage political compromise between lawmakers, rather than marketing issues himself around the state.

“You can’t win public support for it if you don’t ask for it,” said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College in Atherton. “He’s an old dog, but he can learn new tricks.”

Just how did a bill that was so close to being passed in its entirety fall apart at the last minute?

According to one legislative source with intimate knowledge of the closed-door negotiations of Sacramento’s top politicians, the governor’s office simply waited too long to address flagging support within his own party and underestimated his sway over Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins.

It wasn’t until two weeks ago that the governor’s staff engaged with state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon about proposed final amendments to Senate Bill 350 which de Leon had introduced in February after Brown had proposed it during his January inaugural address. And not until Sunday of Labor Day weekend did Brown, de Leon and Atkins begin collectively discussing the lack of support for the bill among many moderate Democrats.

Early Wednesday morning, two powerful Democratic state assemblymen, Das Williams and incoming Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, approached de Leon to push for an Assembly vote that day. They told the Senate leader that if they could not get the necessary 41 votes to win, they would lobby their colleagues and urgently engage their contacts in the environmental and labor camps to make it happen.

But the last-minute strategy failed after Atkins refused to put the bill up for an Assembly vote as amended. Her refusal led to a 21/2-hour meeting Wednesday afternoon among Brown, de Leon and Atkins at which the governor and de Leon tried to convince her to back down.

Atkins balked because she didn’t want de Leon and Brown to twist the arms of moderate Democrat Assembly members, many of whom represent poor Central Valley districts. They had expressed fears that SB 50 would raise gas prices.

On Thursday, neither the governor’s office nor the speaker’s office disputed that version of the events that led to the key SB 50 provision on oil consumption being removed from the bill.

“The administration, speaker and pro tem all fought tirelessly for these measures, and while the proclivity to point fingers and misrepresent is understandable and predictable it’s clear that the real losers are the people of California, who will continue to drive on crumbling roads and suffer the impacts of a changing climate,” said Evan Westrup, the governor’s spokesman.

Political analysts say Brown prefers working under the radar with lawmakers, eschewing public outreach on issues. That approach was exemplified at an Aug. 19 news conference in Oakland to discuss the need to fund overdue road maintenance around the state.

Brown told reporters he wouldn’t say where California would find the money to make that happen. At the time, proposals had included higher gas taxes and increased vehicle registration fees, but Brown demurred, saying, “As a brooding omnipresence, I stand above the fray here.”

Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a veteran political analyst at the University of Southern California, said Brown’s hands-off approach was “his way of governance.” But, she said, staying above the fray was not a good strategic decision in this instance.

“Did he ever counter the arguments by minority legislators who represented the poor districts that it was bad economics to do this?” she asked. “I don’t think he ever did.”

GOP strategist Hector Barajas said Thursday that Brown believes strongly in a “big separation of powers where the Legislature has its job to do, and he has another job to do.”

But Barajas thinks Brown can recover politically by changing direction and speaking more publicly about the need to improve California’s infrastructure and help slow the warming of the planet.

“Even now, the governor remains wildly popular,” Barajas said. “If he goes out and talks to people about the need to repair our roads or even convince people we need to find alternatives to our dependence on oil, he’s always been the best spokesperson for his own measures.”

Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who directs the Unruh Institute of Politics at USC, agreed.

“Jerry Brown has been around long enough to know that even what seems like the worst day in the world doesn’t change his administration or his legacy nearly as much as it appears right now,” he said.

Many California environmentalists on Thursday were reluctant to criticize the governor, whom they see as their most powerful ally. And they tried to put their best face on the embarrassing defeat.

They noted that under several existing laws, such as national standards put in place by President Barack Obama in 2009 that require a doubling of new car gas mileage to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, California already is on a path to reducing gasoline use significantly with or without the provision of SB 50 that failed this week.

Gasoline use already peaked in 2006 in California and has fallen 10.5 percent since then because of more fuel-efficient cars. Other state rules will lead to even further reductions gasoline consumption, including mandates signed by Gov. Gray Davis and Arnold Schwarzenegger that require automakers to make thousands of electric and hybrid vehicles, and forcing oil companies to reduce the carbon content of their fuels by blending them with biofuels in the years ahead.

“The good news is that we can use the tools we already have in our toolbox to reach the goals,” said Susan Frank, president of The Better World Group, a public policy and lobbying business based in Burbank that advocates on environmental issues. “We’re going to get close to the 50 percent goal even without the law.”

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