Obama catches Clinton in N.H.; Iowa remains a 3-way contest

In Iowa, which opens the 2008 presidential voting with its Jan. 3 caucuses, the poll found Sen. Obama of Illinois, Sen. Clinton of New York and former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina in a statistical three-way tie.

But other poll findings suggest Clinton might gain stature in both states if Democrats' concern about world affairs increases after Thursday's assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The poll shows that Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire consider Clinton far better equipped than her rivals to safeguard national security -- as do Democrats around the country.

Such a shift in focus away from domestic policy also could affect the Republican presidential contest and benefit Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has rebounded in New Hampshire. He's second behind Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.

The poll found that Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa consider McCain best qualified to handle foreign affairs, though his campaign has suffered from months of weak fundraising and staff turmoil.

In Iowa, the poll found that the Republican race has been scrambled by the steep rise of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the conservative Baptist minister who has opened a lead of 37% to 23% over Romney. For months, Romney had enjoyed a solid lead.

The poll underscores how, in both parties, the two earliest-voting states are ripe for surprises and upsets in the final days of the campaign.

"Things can go a little crazy up here in New Hampshire," said Tom Mathauser, a poll respondent who supports Obama, referring to the state's history of supporting dark-horse candidates like Paul Tsongas in 1992 and McCain in 2000. "This is the kind of thing that can blow up in someone's face."

The poll, under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, was conducted Dec. 20 through Sunday and on Wednesday in telephone interviews with 2,145 registered voters in Iowa and 1,279 in New Hampshire. The margin of sampling error among Democrats who say they intend to vote in the Iowa caucus or New Hampshire primary was plus or minus 4 percentage points; for Republicans, it was 6 percentage points in Iowa and 5 percentage points in New Hampshire.

N.H. race tightens

The findings illustrate how the competition among Democrats has intensified in crucial early-voting states despite Clinton's big lead in national polls. In the last nationwide poll by the Los Angeles Times this month, Clinton was favored by 45%; Obama, 21%; and Edwards, 11%.

The fresh poll results in New Hampshire are problematic for Clinton because the state has been considered a bastion that could help her recover momentum if she were to have a weak showing in Iowa.

Obama is posing the principal threat there; the poll found Edwards a distant third, with 18%. Other candidates -- Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson -- drew only single-digit support in both New Hampshire and Iowa.

In New Hampshire, Obama shows strength among independents, who can vote in either primary. And he has made gains even among women and less-educated voters who have generally gravitated to Clinton. Backing for her dropped to 30%, from 35% in September.

But Obama also seemed to gain from the large pool of undecided voters. In September, 17% of New Hampshire Democrats were undecided; now, 11% are.

"He represents an opportunity to make a fresh start," said Jay Fitzpatrick, 53, of East Andover, N.H., who considered supporting Clinton but recently decided to back Obama. "She is too much a part of an establishment down in Washington that has been part of the mess we are in."

In Iowa, Clinton is backed by 29% of Democrats who say they will attend the caucuses, compared with 26% for Obama and 25% for Edwards. That's a virtual tie because the differences are within the poll's margin of error.

But when the survey focused more narrowly on voters who were considered very likely to participate in the caucuses, Clinton's edge became more pronounced: 31% versus 22% for Obama. Edwards' support remained unchanged at 25%.

That points to the importance of the rival campaigns' efforts to get their supporters to the caucuses, where votes are cast in hours-long evening meetings that only a fraction of Iowans traditionally attend.