Obama's Character, Clinton's Experience Split Early-Vote States

By Heidi Przybyla and Julianna Goldman

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats are locked in a tight struggle in the initial Iowa and New Hampshire presidential contests, as voters weigh Barack Obama's personal qualities against Hillary Clinton's professional qualifications, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey of the two states shows.

Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is competitive with the two Democratic front-runners leaders for the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, though he is behind in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Jan. 8. The party's other candidates barely register in both states.

Clinton, a New York senator, has a small lead among Iowa Democratic voters with 29 percent support, followed closely by Illinois Senator Obama at 26 percent and Edwards with 25 percent. In New Hampshire, Obama has 32 percent, Clinton gets 30 percent and Edwards trails with 18 percent. In both states, the frontrunners' leads are within the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

``Democratic voters are having a conversation with themselves on what they want more in this election,'' says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``If they choose Obama it's about personal characteristics, whereas for Clinton it's her leadership on issues.''

Strengths, Weaknesses

The poll, conducted Dec. 20-23 and Dec. 26, provides a picture of how Iowa and New Hampshire voters perceive the candidates' strengths and weaknesses. The survey includes 580 Iowa Democratic caucus-goers and 519 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Among likely voters in Iowa, Clinton's small lead in Iowa widens a little -- and Obama's support drops somewhat -- though her advantage may not be relevant because caucus turnout is difficult to predict.

Clinton, 60, is viewed as most experienced, best prepared to be president and most qualified to handle a range of important issues, including Iraq, terrorism, the economy and health care.

She also is viewed as the least honest candidate and less likely to produce change in Washington than Obama, 46. By contrast, Obama, is viewed by both Iowa and New Hampshire voters as an agent of change, the more honest candidate and most likely to tell voters what he thinks rather than what they want to hear.

Still, Obama, a one-term senator, gets the lowest grades on experience, with almost half of Iowa Democrats and 41 percent of those in New Hampshire saying he needs a ``few more years'' of political seasoning before he is ready to be president.

Candor, Integrity

Voters have more mixed perceptions of Edwards, 54, especially in Iowa. He gets higher marks than Clinton on candor and integrity, and is considered more experienced than Obama. At the same time, he doesn't do as well as Obama on most of the personal traits or as Clinton on most of the policy issues.

If the desire for dramatic change is on voters' minds over the next 11 days in Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama enjoys real advantages.

Democrats in both states say the need for new ideas is more important than experience. In Iowa, the margin is 42 percent to 29 percent; in New Hampshire, it is 48 percent to 27 percent.

``We just need some new ideas,'' says Donald Holbrooke, 65, a poll respondent who lives in Swanzee, New Hampshire, and plans to vote for Obama. ``We need new blood in there.''

Clinton's lead on substantive policy issues is sizable: On the economy, she bests Obama by 22 points in Iowa and by 15 points in New Hampshire. In Iowa, she has a 17-point edge over Obama on who would best handle terrorism and national security; in New Hampshire, her advantage is 14 points. The poll was taken before the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto yesterday, which may spark the type of international crisis that Clinton says she is best qualified to handle.

Experience

Ray Klenske, a retired printer from New Hampton, Iowa, who plans to caucus for Clinton says he trusts her to be president because of her eight years of experience as first lady to former President Bill Clinton, her two Senate terms and her travels around the world.

``You can't sit across the table from somebody all those years and not talk business,'' says Klenske, 81. ``If you're a farmer's wife you pretty much know as much about operating a farm as your husband does.''

The poll finds a divide in support for Clinton and Obama among age groups, with about two out of five voters age 18 to 44 in both states saying they favor Obama and about the same margin of Democratic voters age 65 and above backing Clinton, though Edwards gets a similar margin of support from that group in Iowa.

Furthermore, Clinton continues to hold onto support from older women. In Iowa, she gets 43 percent of the vote from women age 45 and over, twice as much as Edwards and Obama. The numbers are similar in New Hampshire.

Race, Gender

A plurality of Democrats says the fact that Obama is black and Clinton is a woman won't be factors in the nominating process.

About three-quarters of Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats say a candidate's past use of illegal drugs wouldn't influence their decision.

In his 1995 memoir, ``Dreams From My Father,'' Obama wrote that he used drugs as a youth, and he openly discusses that experience on the campaign trail. Earlier this month, Bill Shaheen, a Clinton supporter in New Hampshire, stepped down as a campaign co-chair after saying Republicans would attack Obama for his past drug use if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

Edwards is helped most by the Iowa caucus system, which requires Democrats to switch their support to another candidate if their first choice doesn't get 15 percent of the total vote. Edwards is the top second-choice candidate, with 23 percent.

`Second Choice'

``The feeling right now is that second choice is going to boost Edwards,'' says David Redlawsk, a political scientist at the University of Iowa in Iowa City.

Democrats in both states are in a pessimistic mood, with about nine out of 10 saying the country is going in the wrong direction. A large majority of Democrats in both states also say the economy is doing badly and the war in Iraq wasn't worthwhile.

Along with the Iraq war, one of the top policy issues for Democrats in both states is health care, with a plurality saying their chosen candidate's plans to address the problem is the leading reason for their support.

The pessimism about the state of the country aside, 92 percent of Democrats in Iowa and 88 percent in New Hampshire say they are satisfied with their party's field of candidates.

Scott Romine, a retired teacher from North English, Iowa, says he would have ``no hesitation'' in supporting any of the Democratic candidates.

``I like my Democratic slate,'' he says.

To contact the reporters on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net; Julianna Goldman in Des Moines at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: December 27, 2007 19:00 EST

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