Huckabee Leads in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire, Survey Shows

By Matthew Benjamin

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The early Republican presidential race is a tale of voters' divisions over religion, with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee riding support from evangelical Christians to a dominant Iowa lead, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney well ahead in more secular New Hampshire.

A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey of Republican voters in the two states suggests that the only other candidate in contention is Arizona Senator John McCain, who runs second to Romney in New Hampshire. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who leads in some national polls, and former Senator Fred Thompson are far behind in the initial two states. The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses will be followed five days later by the New Hampshire primary.

``Huckabee's rise in Iowa is due to the importance of Christian conservative voters there,'' said Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``He's not making a splash in New Hampshire, where religion is not as important.''

In Iowa, Huckabee, a Baptist minister, has surged to 37 percent among Republican voters; Romney is second at 23 percent. In New Hampshire, Romney has 34 percent, followed by McCain with 21 percent and Giuliani with 14 percent. Huckabee is fourth with only 9 percent.

The poll shows stark differences among Iowa caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary voters on religion. In Iowa, Republicans by almost 3 to 1 say Huckabee's religious beliefs are a positive factor. Almost half of these Iowa voters say Romney's Mormon faith is a negative.

`He's a Christian'

``I like Huckabee because I know he's a Christian,'' said Lynda Lawson, a Des Moines Republican and survey participant. ``He's very straightforward about his beliefs and his stances on certain things,'' added Lawson, 60, who works in the securities industry and calls herself a born-again Christian.

In New Hampshire, by contrast, Republicans are split over Huckabee's religion and the Mormon issue doesn't cut as much.

The states' Republican voters are almost mirror opposites when asked whether a candidate's ``religious beliefs and his relationship with God'' are relevant to the campaign. Iowa Republicans by 54 percent to 42 percent say they are relevant, while New Hampshire Republicans by more than a 2-to-1 majority say they aren't.

Diane Katz, a born-again Christian in Bedford, New Hampshire, said she is putting her religion to the side this election and voting on economic and security issues, both of which she thinks Romney is best equipped to handle. ``He worked very well with the economy of Massachusetts and I'm hoping he can do the same with the entire country,'' said Katz, 57, a retired schoolteacher.

Abortion, Gay Rights

Huckabee's strength in Iowa comes from his identification with social-conservative issues. When asked which Republican candidate is best with abortion and gay rights issues, 44 percent say Huckabee, twice as many as those who say Romney and far more than other candidates.

Three in 10 Iowa voters also say they think Huckabee, 52, is more likely to change the way things are done in Washington, and that far more than the other candidates he is saying what he believes rather than what voters want to hear.

``He's more sincere and honest about his view on the abortion issue, and that's the most important thing to me right now,'' said Jim Canny, 64, an Ottumwa, Iowa, Republican who works part-time at a grocery store.

Economy, Immigration

Romney's strength is that voters view him as qualified to be president and on dealing with issues such as the economy, taxes and illegal immigration. Fifty-four percent of New Hampshire Republicans and more than four in 10 in Iowa say Romney, 60, the co-founder of private-equity firm Bain Capital LLC, would be best at handling the economy. Only 4 percent in New Hampshire and 18 percent in Iowa give Huckabee that rating.

Forty-four percent of New Hampshire Republicans say Romney would be best on taxes, almost three times the number who name McCain or Giuliani. Only 5 percent pick Huckabee.

The poll on Dec. 20-23 and Dec. 26 of 310 Republican caucus- goers in Iowa had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6 percentage points, and the poll of 442 New Hampshire Republican primary voters had a 5-point error margin.

McCain, a U.S. senator since 1987 and a former Vietnam prisoner of war, polls strongly among Republican voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire on security and foreign affairs. A plurality of Republicans in the two states call him the best candidate on fighting terrorism and protecting national security, as well as handling the war in Iraq and foreign affairs.

Opening for McCain

McCain, 71, may see an opening in New Hampshire if Huckabee parlays his popularity into a victory in Iowa and makes the New Hampshire race more difficult for Romney, says Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. ``That makes Iowa more important than ever.''

Giuliani, 63, is down only to 6 percent in Iowa and runs third in New Hampshire, where he has pulled many of his campaign advertising resources. Thompson, 65, gets only 11 percent in Iowa and 4 percent in New Hampshire.

Republicans and Democrats in both states diverge over policy priorities. While both parties cite the Iraq war as a major concern, Democrats in both states have health care and the economy as priorities while Republicans tend to focus more on national security and illegal immigration. In Iowa, where immigration has been a hotly-discussed topic, no candidate emerges with a decisive advantage on the issue.

Republicans in both states are less satisfied with their choices than Democrats, the poll shows.

To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Benjamin in Washington at mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 27, 2007 19:00 EST

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