Gov. Faces Reelection Obstacles

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger faces dismal poll ratings, an empty campaign treasury, a peeved Republican base and other troubles as his new political team plots his campaign for a second term.

The governor has yet to recover from his November special-election debacle, which squandered more than $45 million of his campaign money and drew a withering ad assault from organized labor.

Adding to his difficulties is the poor national political climate for Republicans. Public anger at President Bush and the GOP over the Iraq war, a lobbying scandal, a botched Medicare drug plan and other issues could hurt Schwarzenegger and other Republicans on the California ballot in November, said Tony Quinn, co-editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book election guide.

“The great danger is that’s the way this year is starting to look,” said Quinn, who sees signs of a “great Democratic landslide” nationwide in November.

Schwarzenegger’s most immediate challenge is to tamp down the revolt among his party’s conservative base, which he will face tonight at the state GOP convention in San Jose.

But his difficulties are far broader, as illustrated by a poll released this week by the Public Policy Institute of California.

His popularity ratings among men, women, whites, Latinos, Republicans, Democrats, independents and other key groups fall short of what he needs to win in November. Overall, only 40% of voters approve of his job performance, well below the 50% benchmark for an incumbent seeking reelection.

“He’s got a lot of work to do with a lot of different groups,” said Mark Baldassare, statewide survey director of the institute.

Still, the election is more than eight months away, giving Schwarzenegger time to chart a comeback.

Running his reelection effort will be a team of savvy former Bush campaign operatives, who only now are setting up shop in Sacramento. Led by chief strategist Matthew Dowd and campaign manager Steve Schmidt, the group of at least seven Bush veterans could bring hard-edged discipline to a political team that stumbled badly last year with Schwarzenegger’s failed initiative campaign.

Another potential bright spot for Schwarzenegger is the bruising contest for the Democratic nomination for governor taking shape between state Controller Steve Westly and Treasurer Phil Angelides. Early signs suggest that the two could rip one another apart in negative ads before the June primary, leaving Schwarzenegger to face a Democratic rival sullied by his party before the fall campaign starts.

Dowd, who was chief strategist of Bush’s reelection campaign, said he expects voters to decide the November election on what they see as “gut values” of the candidates. Schwarzenegger, he said, will frame the election as a choice between a “bold leader with big ideas” and a challenger who would “take us backward.”

Schwarzenegger also hopes to recapture the nonpartisan outsider image that helped him win the 2003 recall race. Voters “want people who can bring people together and get things done,” Dowd said. The governor’s aides say the national political climate will have no effect on Schwarzenegger.

But the team remains untested in California, and for now Schwarzenegger’s political standing is nowhere near his star status after his 2003 recall victory. Conservatives have been Schwarzenegger’s most loyal supporters, but his liberal social views have left many wary. Voter turnout in conservative regions of the state was notably weak for Schwarzenegger’s special election, and he cannot afford such a lackluster showing among his base next November.

But in a state where only 35% of voters are Republican, he also must broaden his appeal. And steps he has taken to do that have angered conservatives: his plan to borrow $68 billion for public works projects, his call for a higher minimum wage, his appointment of 50 Democrats to judgeships.

Two former state Republican chairmen had threatened to disrupt this weekend’s GOP convention with their proposal to yank the party’s endorsement of Schwarzenegger to protest his hiring of Democratic activist Susan Kennedy as chief of staff. Under pressure from Schwarzenegger allies, they have dropped the proposal, but reluctantly.

“It’s a highly liberal, left-wing administration,” said John Herrington, one of the ex-chairmen. “They put a label of Republican on it, but it’s not. You’re getting Democrat economic policies. You’re getting Democrat judges.”

Most conservatives are unlikely to support a Democrat for governor, but Schwarzenegger runs a “huge risk” that they will not bother to vote at all, Herrington said. “People do tend to sit out the election if they’re not happy.”

Steve Frank, a Simi Valley conservative organizer, said Schwarzenegger’s policies had caused “distrust, disillusion and depression of the Republican vote.”

“When he told us he wanted to cut up the government’s credit card, when he told us ‘live within our means, no more deficit budgets,’ we believed him,” said Frank, who still backs Schwarzenegger’s reelection.

Schwarzenegger’s vast debt proposal has unsettled some of his big-money supporters too.

“They are just holding their powder dry, waiting to see about writing checks,” said Mark Chapin Johnson, a pharmaceutical executive and major Republican donor.

The governor has tried to soothe frayed nerves among donors. He and his wife, Maria Shriver, threw a dinner party for several dozen of them at their Brentwood estate a few weeks ago. At the dinner, catered personally by chef Wolfgang Puck, Schwarzenegger introduced them to Schmidt.

Few doubt that Schwarzenegger can raise plenty of money for his campaign, but it is unclear whether he can meet the ambitious goal of $120 million that an advisor says the governor has set for himself and the state party. In the summer and fall, Schwarzenegger could face attack advertising not only from the Democratic nominee, but also from the labor unions that spent almost $100 million to kill his 2005 ballot measures.

And the unions have resumed taunting Schwarzenegger about his aggressive fundraising, hoping to undermine public trust in the governor.

“It’s obscene,” said Gale Kaufman, a top campaign strategist for the unions. “Voters thought he was different. He said he didn’t need to do this kind of fundraising, and now he is, and voters really don’t like that about him.”

In the end, Schwarzenegger’s reelection will depend on how voters size him up in a side-by-side matchup with a Democratic rival, as yet unchosen. So far, polls show that most voters know too little about Westly and Angelides to hold positive or negative opinions about either. To some Schwarzenegger supporters, that lack of definition for Democrats offers an important source of hope.

“You can’t beat somebody with nothing,” said Republican strategist Stu Spencer. “And they’ve got two nothings.”