Gov.’s Effort to Engage Voters Stalls

With only days before Tuesday’s special election, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s attempt to jolt the campaign by taking unscripted questions from voters on live television appears to be stumbling, with little sign that he is persuading the electorate that his agenda needs to pass, Republican and Democratic analysts said Friday.

Schwarzenegger had avoided such direct dialogue with voters until two weeks ago, in favor of controlled rallies packed with supporters. But even he had criticized such events as “mechanical” and hoped to get voters to take a fresh look at his four ballot measures through a more spontaneous forum in which his celebrity would give him a natural advantage.

Yet middle-class Californians of both parties have been confronting the governor directly in these events, indicating they have not been persuaded either by his celebrity or his argument that the initiatives he has endorsed must pass.

In Fresno last week, the first question for Schwarzenegger came from a voter who said that if the governor got his way and lengthened by three years the time it takes teachers to get tenure, schools would need to recruit educators from “dreamland.”

In Sacramento on Wednesday, a firefighter who was on stage to make an opposing argument revealed that Schwarzenegger was scheduled to attend a $50,000-a-person fundraiser at a local country club later that night. He held up the invitation as TV cameras recorded the moment.

A forum Thursday in Los Angeles at times resembled an anti-Schwarzenegger campaign rally. Democratic activists made their way into the audience that questioned the governor, contributing to the angry tone. KNBC-TV later apologized for unwittingly admitting the activists.

The governor has said the centerpiece of the election is Proposition 76, a spending restraint. But he has also embraced three other measures unrelated to the state budget, which largely drove the 2003 recall campaign that carried him into office.

The other measures are Proposition 74, which would ease the rules for firing problem teachers and force teachers to wait three more years before they are eligible for tenure; Proposition 75, which would bar unions from using members’ dues for political contributions without their consent; and Proposition 77, which would empower a panel of retired judges to draw voting districts, instead of the Legislature.

A Los Angeles Times Poll published Wednesday showed three of the governor’s measures losing and a fourth -- the teacher tenure measure -- too close to call.

A poll released last week by the Public Policy Institute of California found that none of the governor’s four measures enjoyed the support of a majority of voters. And a Field Poll released earlier this week also showed each of the governor’s measures losing.

While some political analysts contend that the governor’s strategy has backfired, Todd Harris, a spokesman for the Schwarzenegger campaign, defended the governor’s tactics as sound. “They’ve been very helpful,” Harris said of the TV forums. “They allow voters to cut through the din and clutter of the $100-million smear campaign the unions have been waging against the governor, and they allow voters to hear directly from the people who are for change and from people who are against change.”

Republican political consultant Dan Schnur, who is close to the Schwarzenegger administration, also said the TV forums were a good idea, but deficient in two respects: They came late in the game -- after public opinion about Schwarzenegger’s agenda had already hardened -- and the governor refused to debate his opponents directly.

Schnur described that as a lost opportunity, given that the opposition in some cases could muster nothing better than longtime elected officials who failed to connect with voters on TV.

Speaking of the unscripted forums, Schnur said: “These can be helpful. The question is whether they came soon enough. Once public opinion starts solidifying, it becomes harder to change it.”

Arnold Steinberg, a Republican consultant who has periodically been critical of the governor, predicted defeat for Schwarzenegger’s agenda. He said the governor never gave a clear rationale for staging an election outside the normal cycle.

“It’s $40 million down the toilet,” Steinberg said, citing the election’s cost to taxpayers. “He’s worse off now than if he hadn’t held a special election. And these policy reforms -- ideas that have merit -- are now repudiated.”

He said the governor’s advisors staged too many of what they billed as “town hall” meetings but which really were appearances before pre-screened audiences sympathetic to Schwarzenegger’s plans.

The governor, Steinberg said, is “an intelligent man who can be an effective communicator. Instead of using his intelligence, they do all these contrived events, with people asking contrived questions.”

The governor returned Friday to safer ground. He appeared on conservative talk radio shows in the morning, then toured a helicopter factory in Torrance and a 24 Hour Fitness health club in Sunnyvale.

Frank Robinson, 75, the helicopter company owner who took Schwarzenegger around his plant, said he is a longtime registered Democrat but believes the governor’s initiatives “sound pretty reasonable.”

Though the election is not until Tuesday, some elected officials and interest groups are already wondering how the outcome will influence Schwarzenegger’s ability to govern. Tens of millions of dollars were spent in the campaign by both sides. TV ads were filled with attacks.

In this toxic atmosphere, it may be difficult for Schwarzenegger to find consensus, particularly if he loses Tuesday and is perceived as weakened.

Asked about post-election plans, Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the California Nurses Assn., the governor’s most tenacious critic, said: “The war continues.”

Times staff writers Nita Lelyveld and Tim Reiterman contributed to this report.