Schwarzenegger Star Power Fades for GOP in State Races

Republican hopes that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s popularity would help the party win more seats in the Legislature have faded in the final days before Tuesday’s election as Democrats enjoyed a boost from the presidential campaign.

Just weeks ago, Republican officials spoke optimistically about the potential impact of hearty campaigns by Schwarzenegger in behalf of Assembly and Senate candidates. Now, however, even some sources close to the governor concede that the outlook has darkened for Republican candidates and that Democrats could gain a seat.

The Democrats already hold sizable majorities in the legislative chambers: 48 to 32 in the Assembly and 25 to 14 in the Senate, which has one vacancy after Republican William J. “Pete” Knight’s death in May.

Poll results for GOP candidates began dropping after the last presidential debate, said Assembly Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield. It’s an indication that President Bush’s unpopularity with California voters might be weighing down his party’s chances further down the ballot.

With Democrats having expanded their voter edge in the state -- they have added 366,000 voters since last year, while Republicans added 279,000 -- “I’m hoping for a snowstorm,” said Matt Rexroad, who is managing several Republican Assembly campaigns. “Low turnout usually helps us.”

Asked whether it was likely that Republicans would pick up more seats, he said, “I don’t know about ‘likely.’ It’s certainly still possible.” A lot of races remain close in the polls, he said.

Republicans say their best shot at picking up a Democratic seat is the San Joaquin Valley Senate district where a Democratic incumbent, Mike Machado of Linden, is in a tight race against Stockton’s Republican Mayor Gary Podesto. Both sides appear nervous about the matchup, in which the two candidates combined have spent more than $7.5 million -- setting a record for the most expensive legislative race in state history.

Democrats hope to pick up a Senate seat on the Central Coast held by Bruce McPherson of Santa Cruz, a moderate Republican, who’s being forced out by term limits. The race, which pits Assemblyman Abel Maldonado (R-Santa Maria) against San Luis Obispo County Supervisor Peg Pinard, is still a tossup.

In the Assembly, Steve Poizner, a Republican entrepreneur, has invested nearly $5 million of his own money but continues to face an uphill battle for a seat in the San Francisco Bay Area now held by a termed-out Democrat.

The GOP’s McCarthy says he takes satisfaction in the fact that Republicans have at least forced Democrats to spend money on what have usually been considered safe Democratic districts. That wouldn’t have been possible without Schwarzenegger, he said.

“If we’d never had the recall, we’d be fighting just to see how many seats we could hold,” McCarthy said, noting that Republicans lost seats in the last three presidential election years.

Gale Kaufman, the Sacramento political consultant overseeing Assembly races for the Democratic Party, said she has always believed Republicans were wrong to assume that Schwarzenegger’s popularity in the October 2003 recall would translate into legislative gains.

“I continue to maintain that you have to look at each election cycle for what it is,” she said.

In most of the 100 legislative races on Tuesday’s ballot, the winner is a sure bet because districts were drawn to include a majority of either Democratic or Republican voters. However, in a dozen races where registration splits more evenly, the parties and special-interest groups have sunk more than $36 million into campaigns, hoping to score upsets.

The parties have been polling repeatedly to figure out where an infusion of money would make the biggest difference. Guided by that research, each side has shifted funds from race to race as the number of contested races has shrunk from more than a dozen to just a handful.

The fiercest fight pits Podesto against Machado in a district where voters are split 45% Democratic, 35% Republican and 15% decline-to-state. Republicans say that with the share of independents they can count on, their candidates are practically guaranteed victory when 40% or more of a district’s voters are Republicans.

Podesto is one of three legislative candidates for whom Schwarzenegger has made both a fundraising and a campaign appearance.

Months ago, GOP strategists had said they looked forward to vigorous support from Schwarzenegger on behalf of Senate and Assembly candidates, and they weren’t complaining last week about his commitment.

“He’s done radio, he’s done phones; he’s been excellent,” the GOP’s Rexroad said. “He’s made these races competitive.”

The governor has convened rallies on behalf of five candidates -- all in the last two weeks. He also has attended six fundraisers and recorded phone messages and radio ads touting several candidates. Schwarz- enegger’s photo appears on the campaign literature of many of the 49 Republicans he endorsed.

But he has not filmed any television ads on behalf of legislative candidates, despite having done so for several ballot propositions.

“We don’t over-appropriate,” Schwarzenegger spokesman Rob Stutzman said. “We’re very specific in how we allocate the governor’s image on TV.”

Schwarzenegger’s rallies have targeted the tightest races. He visited Lemon Grove, in Republican Assemblywoman Shirley Horton’s district, last week to praise her “Terminator attitude.” In 2002, Horton, of Chula Vista, eked out a win by fewer than 1,600 votes in a district that was drawn by lawmakers after the last census to include more Democratic voters.

The governor also has traveled to the largely rural 30th Assembly District, which includes part of Bakersfield. Assemblywoman Nicole Parra of Hanford, a Democrat, won the seat in 2002 by 266 votes against Republican Dean Gardner. In the rematch, Republicans have invested much more money than they did two years ago, hoping to reverse the margin.

Late developments have heightened Democratic hopes of an upset in the 15th Assembly District, home to the only Republican legislator representing the San Francisco Bay Area.

Assemblyman Guy Houston (R-Livermore) has been struggling to respond to a lawsuit filed in October accusing him and his father of fraud involving the financial troubles of the father’s investment business.

The case has inspired campaign literature from Houston’s Democratic opponent, attorney Elaine Shaw, which features the slogan: “Because they trusted Guy Houston with their money -- and it’s gone.”

Houston has tried to distance himself from his father’s business, and called the suit politically motivated. The state Democratic Party has put nearly $300,000 into Shaw’s campaign in the last two weeks.

The roles are reversed in the 31st Assembly District, where Democrats had hoped for an easy victory. Republican cotton farmer Paul Betancourt is battling Fresno County Supervisor Juan Arambula. The district leans Democratic, but since Oct. 1, the county and state Republican parties have pumped more than $500,000 into Betancourt’s campaign. Democrats increased support to Arambula in return, with the state party donating nearly $120,000 in the last week.