Mayor faces hurdles to advancement

Last year at this time, Democratic Party loyalists saw Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa as the early favorite to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Not any more.

The collapse of Villaraigosa’s effort to gain substantial control of Los Angeles public schools, followed by revelations of an extramarital affair, have opened the door to others -- most notably Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown.

Beyond those setbacks and self-inflicted wounds, Villaraigosa faces timing problems that could severely complicate any attempt to become California’s first Latino governor in more than a century.

Because the 2010 governor’s race follows closely behind the 2009 mayoral election, Villaraigosa would have to wage simultaneous campaigns, raising questions about whether his primary allegiance is to the city or the state.

That could alienate voters and scare away financial backers who would be courted by other potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates, including Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, state Treasurer Bill Lockyer, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, former Controller Steve Westly and Supt. of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell.

Villaraigosa’s viability has been a topic of conversation for months among Democratic insiders and political scientists. Just last week, the California Majority Report, a Sacramento blog, dropped Villaraigosa in its rankings from first place to fourth behind Brown, Newsom and Garamendi.

“His political capital is a lot like the California housing market. It has taken a hit lately,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “Politically he still has an impressive house, but the house isn’t what it was a year ago.”

Villaraigosa said he is too busy running Los Angeles to think about the governor’s race.

Although as mayor he has been criticized for casting broad visions more than producing concrete results, Villaraigosa points to what he considers important successes: cutting the city’s budget deficit amid declining revenues, securing state bond money to synchronize street lights, taking steps to reduce pollution at the city’s busy port and gaining a trash fee hike to hire 1,000 new officers for the Los Angeles Police Department.

Villaraigosa frequently reminds audiences that crime has steadily declined on his watch to levels not seen since the mid-1950s, an outgrowth, he believes, of the gradual police expansion.

“I don’t have two minutes to focus on the governor’s race because I couldn’t be more focused on the job I have,” he said. “I love this job.”

Villaraigosa’s top aides believe he has turned the corner on a difficult spring and summer that saw a court reject his school district takeover and friends cringe at his affair with television journalist Mirthala Salinas. The latter news prompted Villaraigosa’s wife of 20 years to file for divorce after having threatened to end the marriage years before over a previous indiscretion by him. On Saturday, sources familiar with the situation said Villaraigosa and Salinas have also since split.

Deputy Mayor Sean Clegg predicted a smoother 2008 that would see Villaraigosa produce a burst of concrete initiatives, including a new mass transit strategy, a package of gun-control initiatives and the launch of a plan to run two clusters of public schools in a partnership with the Los Angeles Unified School District.

“The hard work will pay off. He’s on a clear upward trajectory,” Clegg said. “The mayor is really poised for a breakout senior season.”

And that is precisely what he will need if he hopes to remain competitive in 2010.

“To get a promotion, you’ve got to tell the voters what you have accomplished,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican strategist who publishes the nonpartisan California Target Book, a guide to legislative races. “His ability to articulate that in a credible form will determine his viability to run for governor. . . . The score on his accomplishments is still out.”

Villaraigosa has plenty going for him. He enjoys solid backing from organized labor and Latinos, who make up a growing segment of Democratic voters. And the mayor, a former Assembly speaker, maintains strong relationships with Democratic leaders in the capital and even with Schwarzenegger.

He has raised his national profile by serving as a co-chairman of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential bid; no credible opponent has yet stepped forward to challenge him for reelection; and he is the only potential gubernatorial candidate from voter-rich Southern California.

All of the other possible contenders have bruises or baggage of their own.

Newsom, who drew criticism from across the nation when he championed gay marriage in San Francisco, weathered his own personal scandal earlier this year after admitting an affair with his campaign manager’s wife. Westly failed to win his party’s nomination for governor last year despite tapping his personal fortune for his campaign. And questions linger about the staying power of Garamendi, Lockyer and O’Connell.

Brown -- a former two-term California governor, secretary of state and Oakland mayor -- is thought to be the Democrats’ strongest contender for now, even though some voters view him as a career politician and a quirky iconoclast once tagged with the moniker Governor Moonbeam.

Brown declined to comment, a spokesman said. Party analysts say he has reinvented himself as an elder statesman and note that, as attorney general, he has seized on the environment, one of his longtime causes that is now popular with voters and also happens to be at the top of Villaraigosa’s agenda.

As a member of one of California’s most influential political families, Brown is well known beyond Democratic circles, partly the result of having run repeatedly for statewide and national office, including three failed presidential bids. His father, Pat Brown, served eight years as attorney general and eight more as governor.

“I think it’s pretty clear that Jerry Brown has become the 800-pound gorilla in the Democrats’ gubernatorial primary race,” said Democratic strategist and attorney Darry Sragow. “He is viewed with awe among insiders for his political acumen. You have to respect his perseverance.”

But Sragow and others say it’s too early to anoint Brown -- or anyone else -- as the Democratic nominee. The June 2010 gubernatorial primary is more than 2 1/2 years away, giving potential candidates ample time to rehabilitate themselves or trip up.

In that time, the economy could play the spoiler. The state already is facing a potential deficit of at least $10 billion next year, prompting Schwarzenegger to call for a 10% cut in spending. Likewise, Los Angeles is experiencing its own downturn, with Villaraigosa also ordering up an austere 2008 budget to counter the possible loss of $270 million in telephone utility users taxes.

“We are eras away from really figuring out what the race is going to look like for governor,” said Roger Salazar, a political consultant and a spokesman for the California Democratic Party. “There is going to be a lot of speculation and promotion and touting. It keeps those of us who follow politics entertained.”

Villaraigosa has yet to begin raising money for reelection or for the governor’s race, according to city and state campaign finance records. Election laws allow him to run for both offices at the same time, as long as he keeps contributions in the two races separate and abides by local and state donor limits.

But Villaraigosa could face questions from voters over whether he would complete a second mayoral term. The same issue surfaced when he ran for mayor in 2005, midway through a four-year City Council term, prompting accusations that he had broken a pledge to stay put.

In a race for governor, history is not on Villaraigosa’s side: Los Angeles has installed only one mayor in the governor’s office in modern times. Among those who tried and failed: Richard Riordan, Tom Bradley and Sam Yorty.

It’s possible that Villaraigosa might seek another office altogether, such as the seat held by U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein if she retires in 2012 or a Cabinet post if Clinton is elected president. The 2014 governor’s race is another option.

If Villaraigosa waits too long to enter the 2010 contest, however, he would miss an opportunity to build important momentum, possibly allowing another candidate to assume the role of presumptive nominee, strategists say.

“There is a long list of people who want this job other than Antonio Villaraigosa,” Sragow said. “He’s a competitor who has to be taken very seriously, but he’s going to have to work very hard and get a lot of things right.”

duke.helfand@latimes.com