Voters Support Parental Notice

California voters narrowly favor an initiative on Tuesday’s ballot to bar abortions for minors unless parents are notified, but are leaning against two prescription-drug discount measures, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Likely voters also tilt strongly against Proposition 80, which would impose new rules on the electric power industry, the survey found.

The abortion, drug and electricity measures have been eclipsed for months by initiatives sponsored by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and opposed by organized labor. A Times poll published Wednesday showed three of the governor’s ballot measures losing and the fourth a tossup, in part hurt by a slump in his popularity.

Amid the raging television-ad fight between Schwarzenegger and the unions, many voters are unfamiliar with -- or confused by -- the prescription-drug and electricity proposals, said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. That has complicated efforts by the initiatives’ proponents.

“When voters don’t understand an initiative, they tend to vote no,” she said.

Views are more set, however, on Proposition 73, the abortion measure, which 51% of likely voters support and 39% oppose. It would prohibit abortions for those younger than 18 until 48 hours after a doctor notified a parent or guardian. There would be some exceptions, including medical emergencies or a parental waiver of the notification rule.

Men tend to support parental notification more than women do, the poll found. Nearly six in 10 men back Proposition 73, but women are split almost evenly.

The measure is also favored by nearly two-thirds of those who attend religious services at least once a month, underscoring the potential value of the Republican Party’s promotion of the measure among evangelicals and other conservative Christians. The proposal is most popular among Republicans, conservatives and the elderly.

“A parent should be involved with a minor’s decision on that,” poll respondent Paula Maine, 46, a conservative Republican pharmaceutical saleswoman who lives in Diamond Bar, said in a follow-up interview.

The measure is least popular among Democrats and liberals, but their opposition is slightly outweighed by more intense support for the measure among Republicans and conservatives.

The No on 73 campaign, sponsored by abortion rights groups, began running a television ad against the proposal last week in the state’s coastal areas, where voters are roughly split on the measure. In California’s inland counties, a majority favors the proposal.

The poll results on the measure did not signal a change in the state’s views about abortion; the survey found that 58% of likely voters believe abortion should be legal in most cases, while 39% say it should not. Fewer than one in 10 say it should be illegal even in cases of rape, incest or endangerment of a mother’s life.

The poll also found no change in California’s long-standing divisions over abortion. Though 87% of liberals and 65% of moderates favor legal abortion, 66% of conservatives oppose it. Roughly two-thirds of Democrats support it, while two-thirds of Republicans oppose it. Independents side with Democrats on abortion.

On the prescription-drug discount measures, Propositions 78 and 79, the poll found that voters had not formed strong opinions. When just the ballot title of each proposal was read to likely voters, about half were undecided or had heard too little to make up their minds.

Once the full ballot description was read to respondents -- a traditional polling technique -- both initiatives still fell short of winning numbers. On Proposition 78, 38% were in favor and 43% opposed, well within the poll’s margin of error. On Proposition 79, 30% were for it and 47% against it.

Pharmaceutical companies have spent $76.5 million on their campaign to defeat Proposition 79 and pass Proposition 78.

Both measures would give prescription coverage to low-income Californians. Proposition 78 would cover as many as 6 million residents with voluntary involvement by drug companies. Proposition 79 would benefit as many as 10 million people; drug companies that did not take part could lose their state Medi-Cal contracts.

The pharmaceutical industry is fighting its own public image. When voters were told that major drug firms support Proposition 78, 44% said that would make them more likely to oppose it, and 9% said it would make them more likely to support it.

By contrast, when told that health advocates, seniors groups and labor unions back Proposition 79, 36% said that would make them more likely to vote for that measure, while 16% said it would make them more likely to oppose it.

Joe McNally, 77, a San Diego independent who checked “no” on 78 and “yes” on 79 on the ballot he cast by mail, is one of those turned off by the drug industry.

“I voted against the drug companies,” said the retired lawyer and naval officer.

The initiative that appears to baffle voters most is Proposition 80, which would roll back part of California’s troubled experiment with a deregulated electricity market.

When read the ballot title alone (“Electric Service Providers Regulation Initiative Statute”), nearly three out of four likely voters were undecided or had heard too little to take a stand. After hearing the full ballot description, 25% said they favored it and 48% were against it.

The survey, overseen by Pinkus, interviewed 940 likely voters by telephone from Oct. 26 to Oct. 31.

For questions on the ballot measures, the sample was split: 459 of the voters were asked about Propositions 73 and 80, and 481 were asked about Propositions 78 and 79. The margin of sampling error for each group was plus or minus five percentage points.

All 940 voters were asked their general views on abortion. The margin of sampling error on those questions was plus or minus three points.

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Times Poll Associate Director Jill Darling Richardson and data management supervisor Claudia Vaughn contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

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Voters’ views on the propositions and abortion

The Times Poll interviewed Californians who are deemed likely to vote in Tuesday’s special election:

Q. If the election were being held today, how would you vote on these initiatives?

Proposition 73:

Amends the California Constitution by defining and prohibiting abortion for unemancipated minors until 48 hours after a physician notifies the minor’s parent and/or legal guardian, except in a medical emergency or with a parental waiver. It mandates reporting requirements and authorizes monetary damages against physicians for violations. Fiscal impact : potential unknown net state costs of several million dollars annually for health and social services programs, the courts and state administration.

Yes 51%

No 39%

Don’t know 10%

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Proposition 78:

Establishes a discount drug program for certain low- and moderate-income Californians. It authorizes the Department of Health Services to contract with participating pharmacies for discounts and with participating drug manufacturers for rebates. Fiscal impact: state costs for administration and outreach in the millions to low tens of millions of dollars annually, and costs for advance funding of rebates. There are unknown potentially significant savings for state and county health programs.

Yes 38%

No 43%

Don’t know 19%

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Proposition 79:

Provides drug discounts to Californians with qualifying incomes. It is funded by state-negotiated drug manufacturer rebates and prohibits Medi-Cal contracts with manufacturers not providing Medicaid “best price.” Fiscal impact: state costs for administration and outreach in the low tens of millions of dollars annually. Another fiscal impact will be state costs for advance funding for rebates and unknown potentially significant net costs or savings for Medi-Cal, along with savings for state and county health programs.

Yes 30%

No 47%

Don’t know 23%

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Proposition 80:

Subjects electric service providers to regulation by the California Public Utilities Commission. It restricts electricity customers’ ability to switch from private utilities to other providers. It also requires all retail electric sellers to increase their renewable energy resource procurement by 2010.

Fiscal impact: potential annual administrative costs ranging from negligible to $4 million, paid by fees. There is unknown net impact on state and local costs and revenues from uncertain impact on electricity rates.

Yes 25%

No 48%

Don’t know 27%

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Q. Proposition 78 is supported by many of the major pharmaceutical drug companies. Does that make you more or less likely to vote for Proposition 78?

More likely to vote for 9%

More likely to vote against 44%

Don’t know 9%

No difference 38%

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Q. Proposition 79 is supported by many consumer health advocates, seniors’ groups and labor unions. Does that make you more or less likely to vote for Proposition 79?

More likely to vote for 36%

More likely to vote against 16%

Don’t know 8%

No difference 40%

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Q. Which comes closest to your view on abortion? Abortion should be:

Always legal 39%

Legal most of the time 19%

Always illegal 6%

Illegal except for rape, incest or to save mother’s life 33%

Don’t know 3%

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Source: Times Poll

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Note: All questions are asked of a split sample of likely voters except the abortion question, which is asked of all likely voters.

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Poll results are also available at: www.latimes.com/timespoll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,778 adults in California by telephone Oct. 26-31, of whom 940 were deemed likely to vote in the Nov. 8 special election. A split sample was used, so 481 likely voters were asked about Propositions 78 and 79, while 459 likely voters were asked about Propositions 73 and 80. Likely voters were determined by a screening process that included questions on intention to vote, certainty of vote, interest in the campaign, absentee voting and past voting history. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state, and random digit dialing techniques allowed listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number. Adults in the entire sample were weighted slightly to conform with their respective census proportions by sex, ethnicity, age, education, region, and party registration figures from the secretary of state. The margin of sampling error for all likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for each split sample it is 5 points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews in all samples were conducted in both English and Spanish.