O.C. Getting the Jump on ’06 Elections

GOP political consultant Scott Hart of Newport Beach was looking forward to some breathing room over the holidays before a busy election year in 2006.

No such luck.

The election season in Orange County is getting off to an early start with an April 11 special election to fill a vacancy in the state Senate. Hart is already intensely involved in that one and the statewide primary, which follows less than two months later. And then there’s the nationwide general election in November.

“I thought I’d have a little bit of a break,” Hart said last week. “My wife is having to do all my Christmas shopping -- for her.”

Elected officials, consultants, politicos and voters say 2006 will easily surpass what seemed like an endless campaign in 2005, when voters mostly coped with ballot measures and a handful of local contests. Next year, no race is likely to grab more attention than Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s bid for reelection.

“There are so many potentially big races in 2006,” said Republican political consultant Jeff Flint of Anaheim.

“Both national parties are going to be reading the tea leaves over what happens here” in California, he said, particularly with the looming 2008 presidential election. Among the things that will be watched, he said, is the extent to which illegal immigration becomes an effective campaign issue.

County Democrats will be focusing on voter registration and turnout in 2006, said party activist David Silva. “Not only do we want to register them, but we want to make sure every single one of them votes by mail. He said he thought politicians would also be watching to see how much the Iraq war emerged as a campaign issue.

In addition to the statewide contests, Orange County voters will cast ballots in six congressional races, two races for the state Senate and nine for the Assembly. There are also three seats on the Board of Supervisors up for election, and six for nonpartisan countywide offices. Races for judgeships, special districts and contests will also be on the ballot in 34 cities.

Most of the seats are held by officeholders who are expected to run for reelection, many unopposed.

As a result, the attention is likely to focus on contests without an incumbent running. In Orange County, these races include three in the Assembly, one in the state Senate and two for the Board of Supervisors.

State term limits have triggered a dizzying dance of lawmakers jumping between state Assembly and Senate seats, and Congress.

The spring campaigns are already in full sprint, despite the fact that the state returns next year to its traditional June primary -- after eight years of holding it in March. The deadline to file candidacy papers in most cases is March 10.

The first contest is the April 11 special election in coastal Orange County to replace state Sen. John Campbell (R-Irvine), who was elevated Dec. 6 to the House of Representatives. He succeeded Republican Christopher Cox of Newport Beach, who left to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The announced candidates to succeed Campbell are Dana Point Councilwoman Diane Harkey and Assemblyman Tom Harman (R-Huntington Beach), who must leave the Legislature next year because of term limits.

Harman’s wife, Dianne, has announced that she will run to take his place, as has county Supervisor Jim Silva (no relation to David Silva), who faces term limits on his county seat.

Term limits will expand the fields in other legislative races.

State Sen. Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana) is running for state controller while Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Anaheim), serving his last term, tries for Dunn’s seat in the Senate.

Assemblyman Van Tran (R-Garden Grove), who just finished his first year in office, opened an exploratory committee on succeeding Dunn. Tran’s move prompted Garden Grove Councilwoman Janet Nguyen to open a committee to explore whether she should try to take his place in Sacramento.

Among other potential candidates for Dunn’s Senate seat are termed-out Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher (R-Brea) and Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa, who jumped from the Assembly in 2004 because of term limits.

Santa Ana council members Claudia Alvarez and Jose Solorio and businessman Armando De La Libertad said they will run for the Democratic nomination to succeed Umberg in the Assembly.

In next year’s other state Senate race, no candidates have announced for the seat held by Sen. Bill Morrow (R-Oceanside), who is termed out. Morrow is said to be considering a run for Rep. Darrell Issa’s seat just to the south if the Vista Republican runs for the U.S. Senate.

The June 6 ballot also will list incumbent Assembly members up for reelection representing all or portions of Orange County, including Mimi Walters (R-Laguna Niguel), Chuck DeVore (R-Irvine) and Todd Spitzer (R-Orange), Rudy Bermudez (D-Norwalk) and Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar).

Among House members looking for another term are Reps. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana), Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), Gary G. Miller (R-Diamond Bar) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona). As longtime incumbents, they are all considered favorites for reelection.

Congressional newcomer Campbell also must run again for a full two-year term. Jim Gilchrist, an activist against illegal immigration who got a quarter of the vote in the Dec. 6 election when he ran as the American Independent Party candidate and finished third, and said he might take on Campbell again.

Among county offices, northern Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is seeking reelection and has so far drawn one opponent, community activist Rose Espinoza of Fullerton.

Two supervisorial seats will be up for grabs: those now held by Tom Wilson of southern Orange County and Jim Silva in the north-coastal district.

Sheriff Michael S. Carona is facing three challengers: Orange County Sheriff’s Lt. William Hunt of San Clemente, Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Cmdr. Ralph Martin of Coto de Caza and retired Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Sgt. Robert G. Alcaraz.