Iraqi ‘Chatter’ Threatens Use of Chemicals

Alarmed by intercepts of Iraqi communications mentioning use of “special” weapons and other fresh intelligence, U.S. special operations teams and mobile units of scientists and weapons experts have stepped up their search for suspected Iraqi caches of chemical and biological weapons, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The effort was given added urgency as armored columns of U.S. troops poured across the “red line,” a radius about 50 miles around Baghdad, and began besieging the outskirts of the capital.

U.S. officials had warned that crossing the line could trigger a desperate counterattack by Iraqi artillery, missiles or drone aircraft capable of spraying lethal substances on massed U.S. troops. It’s more difficult to target such attacks on fast-moving troops spread out across the desert.

But U.S. experts believe that Iraq can no longer rely on biological weapons to stop or slow U.S. forces, because microbe-based agents such as anthrax or botulinum toxin may not take effect for days or weeks.

“Any biological attack would take too long now to have a useful military effect,” one official said.

Instead, U.S. military officials chiefly worry that Iraqi troops may try to use such deadly nerve gases as Tabun, sarin or VX. Such agents, which Iraq is known to have produced in the past, attack the central nervous system and can cause death in hours or even minutes.

U.S. intelligence indicates shells and warheads filled with chemical agents may have been stockpiled in hidden arsenals in and around Baghdad, and are in the custody of Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard units that are trusted by the regime.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told a Pentagon briefing audience Thursday that “we’ve always believed” the risk of chemical attack “increased the closer that coalition forces got to Baghdad.”

Although the Pentagon clearly hopes to avoid street fighting in Baghdad, some officials say that the danger of chemical attack is likely to recede if U.S. forces are drawn into the city’s concrete confines. That’s because poison gas would also endanger Iraqi troops and civilians in urban combat.

“Once you’re mixed up with them, it doesn’t make any tactical sense” to use chemical weapons, said a second U.S. official, “unless they’re just reaching out in some irrational act.”

The official said concerns about a possible unconventional attack also have mounted in recent days because of fresh electronic intercepts of Iraqi military radio transmissions and other “chatter” that use “euphemisms or code words” to refer to weapons of mass destruction.

“There are allusions to using special weapons,” the official said. “There seem to be a lot more now.”

Marines, already in protective suits, increased their precautions as they approached Baghdad’s perimeter. They were ordered to keep special gloves and gas masks close at hand, and to sleep with protective boots on for the first time since the war began.

Special operations forces that have conducted clandestine raids deep inside Iraqi lines against suspected weapons facilities, and mobile teams of weapons experts and scientists who search sites and gather intelligence behind U.S. and British lines, also have been ordered to intensify their efforts, officials said.

No weapons of mass destruction have been used or discovered so far in the war. U.S. and British troops have recovered thousands of Iraqi chemical protection suits, respirators and chemical-weapon antidotes at several locations, but it’s unclear whether they were meant for offensive purposes.

President Bush has cited Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s effort to produce such “weapons of terror” as the chief justification for the war, and administration officials say they remain convinced that the regime still may use such weapons as a last resort. Some skeptics, however, say the Bush administration may have vastly overestimated Iraq’s capabilities and supplies.

The “mobile exploitation” teams of U.S. scientists, intelligence operatives and weapons experts have searched more than a half-dozen Iraqi factories, ammunition dumps and other suspected sites since the war began but found no proof of illegal weapons.

Based in Kuwait, they have compiled a list of more than 1,000 potential weapons sites across Iraq. They also have identified several hundred Iraqi scientists, technicians and officials who were involved in the covert procurement and production of illegal weapons.

So far, officials said Thursday, the special teams have conducted no interviews with significant figures in the Iraqi weapons program. “A lot of people of interest in weapons of mass destruction are in Baghdad and really aren’t accessible,” said a military intelligence official.

The teams also have made little headway so far in scrutinizing documents and other weapons-related materials gathered in Iraq. “The process is just starting,” said another intelligence official.

“It may take years to find all of Iraq’s weapons,” warned Loren Thompson, a defense analyst.

But he added, “I’m certain they have them and I’m certain they are actively considering using them at this moment.”

U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal said Thursday that the military has “aggressively targeted” command and control facilities and potential delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction since the war began.

“We’ve tried to hit the artillery tubes that can shoot chemical or biological weapons,” he told reporters. “We’ve tried to hit all of the rockets -- Ababil-100s, Al-Samouds. We’ve tried to locate all the Scuds with which he threatens his neighbors with chemical and biological weapons.”

But McChrystal said he could not explain why Hussein had not launched whatever weapons he still has now that U.S. troops have crossed the “red line” and directly threaten his rule.

“We’re not sure whether or not our deterrence has worked,” he said. “We’re not sure whether or not our disruption of his command and control may have stopped him. It may be a conscious decision; can’t tell. We are assuming at this point that it may still come, and therefore staying postured for that.”

Other experts offered other reasons for why Iraq has not used weapons of mass destruction, assuming it still has them.

First, they say, Hussein has insisted for years that he possesses no such weapons and his regime would undermine whatever sympathy and credibility it has in the international community if it should suddenly admit that it does. It also would guarantee that U.S. officials would show little mercy in the remaining days of the war.

“Basically, they’re committing suicide if they use them,” said Thompson.

It’s possible, officials said, that the regime has not had the time or opportunity to deliver weapons to troops in the field. It’s also possible that artillery battalions, missile batteries and other units deployed to fire such weapons were eliminated by airstrikes or other attacks, or that covert attacks by U.S., British and Australian special forces cut off crucial communications needed to authorize a chemical or biological attack.

Finally, some officials believe that Hussein may be keeping his chemical weapons as a last-minute bargaining chip to trade for survival or exile.

Asked why Hussein had not used any chemical or biological weapons so far, Rumsfeld said the regime may hope it can make a deal.

But if “they are holding out hope ... that there might be a deal cut, the use of chemical weapons would certainly end that prospect,” he said. “They have to be balancing that.”

And he added there is “not even a remote possibility” of a deal now short of unconditional surrender and the forced removal of Hussein and his regime.

“I think it’s over,” said Col. William Taylor, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who counts Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and retired Army Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey among his former pupils.

“If they use chemical weapons now, where are they going to put them?” he asked. “If you use chemical or biological weapons, there are so many risks, depending on the weather and the way the wind is blowing. It could blow right back in your face.

“We’re very close to this whole thing being over and the population in Baghdad is going to do what the people did in Najaf -- throw up their arms and say, ‘Thank God you’re here.’ ”

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Times staff writers Greg Miller in Washington and Maggie Farley at the United Nations contributed to this report.