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Border, Internet cited in U.S. terror threat assessment

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Associated Press

The terrorism threat to the United States over the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security, and increasing Internet savvy, according to a new federal intelligence assessment obtained by the Associated Press.

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the most dangerous threats that could be carried out against the U.S. But those threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups to acquire the necessary materials, according to the internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-13.

The Al Qaeda network continues to focus on U.S. targets vulnerable to major economic losses, casualties and political “turmoil,” the assessment says.

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Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said this month that the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction remained “the highest priority at the federal level.” Speaking to reporters early this month, he said more people, such as terrorists, will learn how to make dirty bombs and biological and chemical weapons. “The other side is going to continue to learn more about doing things,” he said.

Marked “for official use only,” the report does not specify its audience, but the assessments typically go to law enforcement, intelligence officials and the private sector.

When determining threats, intelligence officials consider loss of life as well as economic and psychological consequences.

Intelligence officials predict that in the next five years, terrorists will try to conduct a destructive biological attack.

Officials are concerned about the possibility of infections to thousands of U.S. citizens, overwhelming regional healthcare systems.

There could also be dire economic effects from worker illnesses and deaths. Officials are most concerned about biological agents stolen from labs or other storage facilities, such as anthrax.

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“The threat of terrorism and the threat of extremist ideologies has not abated,” Chertoff said in a year-end address last week. “This threat has not evaporated, and we can’t turn the page on it.”

These high-consequence threats are not the only challenges expected over the next five years.

Terrorists will continue to try to evade U.S. border security measures and place operatives in the country to carry out attacks, the 38-page assessment says.

It also says that they may pose as refugees or asylum seekers or try to exploit foreign travel channels such as the visa waiver program, which allows citizens of 34 countries to enter the U.S. without visas.

Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and asylum programs will cause more foreigners to try to enter the U.S. illegally.

Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the U.S. in the next five years, and the number of refugees from Somalia and Sudan could grow because of conflicts in those countries, the assessment says.

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Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials expect more will try to enter the U.S. illegally as well. Officials predict the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Intelligence officials predict that the pool of radical Islamists within the U.S. will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease of online recruiting. Officials foresee “a wave of young, self-identified Muslim ‘terrorist wannabes’ who aspire to carry out violent acts.”

The U.S. has already seen some examples of these homegrown terrorists. Five Muslim immigrants were convicted this week of plotting to massacre U.S. soldiers at Ft. Dix, in a case the government said demonstrated its post-Sept. 11 determination to stop terrorist attacks in the planning stages.

The Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah does not have a known history of fomenting attacks in the U.S., but that could change if there is some kind of “triggering” event, the assessment cautions.

A 2008 Interagency Intelligence Committee on Terrorism assessment says that Hezbollah members based in the U.S. conduct local fundraising through charity projects and criminal activity such as money laundering, smuggling, drug trafficking, fraud and extortion, according to the security assessment.

In addition, the cyber- terrorism threat is expected to increase over the next five years, as hacking tools become more sophisticated and available.

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“Youthful, Internet-savvy extremists might apply their online acumen to conduct cyber-attacks rather than offer themselves up as operatives to conduct physical attacks,” the assessment says.

Although Islamic terrorists, including members of Al Qaeda, would like to conduct cyber-attacks now, they lack the capability to do so, the assessment says.

The large-scale attacks that are on Al Qaeda’s wish list -- such as disrupting a major city’s water or power systems -- require sophisticated computer capabilities.

But Al Qaeda does have the ability to hire hackers to carry out such attacks, the assessment says. And federal officials believe that in the next three to five years, Al Qaeda could direct or inspire cyber-attacks that target the U.S. economy.

Counter-terrorism expert Frank Cilluffo said the typical cyber-attack would not achieve Al Qaeda’s main goal of inflicting mass devastation, with its resulting widespread media coverage.

However, Al Qaeda is likely to continue to rely on the Internet to spread its message, said Cilluffo, who runs the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University.

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Officials also predict that domestic terrorists such as radical animal rights and environmental activists will become more adept at using explosives and will increase their use of arson attacks.

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