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President George W. Bush remains popular with most Americans, according to the latest Times Poll. He gets highest marks for his handling of terrorism and homeland defense and while a plurality think the President’s tax cuts are good for the economy, a majority do not want to see them come at the expense of Social Security. A majority of Americans also said that the national economy is not performing well, reversing a Times Poll finding from just four months ago. The country, however, is polarized along partisan lines, with Democrats seeing President Bush and his economic policies in a much more negative light than do Republicans.
President George W. Bush
Just over half of American voters said they definitely or probably will vote to reelect Bush as president in 2004, including 16% of Democrats, 49% of independents, and 93% of Republicans.* Bush’s continuing public popularity evidently does not translate into guaranteed reelection. The campaign for president has yet to even get underway, of course. The recent announcement of Gore’s withdrawal from consideration for the Democratic nomination has blown that party’s field wide open. This survey shows that it is possible that the economy could once again become a major election issue, despite the recent focus on Iraq and anti-terrorism.
* Self-identified party affiliation.
Job Approvals
More than six in ten Americans gave George W. Bush a positive job approval rating, while a third disapprove. The survey shows, however, that the non-partisan nature of the public’s support for President Bush is beginning to crack.
When it comes to handling various issues such as the economy, foreign affairs, terrorism and the environment, members of Bush’s own party give him high marks across the board, and he has at least a majority thumbs-up from the public in general. Majorities of Democrats dislike his handling of the economy and foreign affairs. A plurality give him low marks for dealing with the environment, and only when it comes to fighting terrorism do they approve of the job he is doing.
Four months ago, in August, the Times Poll found Democrats divided in their opinion of the president with members of that party giving him a bare plurality of overall job approval, of 49% to 46%. The current survey shows Democratic sentiment hardening against Bush. Democrats said they disapproved of the job he is doing by a margin of twenty percentage points—57% to 37%. Just over two-thirds gave him low marks for his handling of the economy, 58% disapproved of his handling foreign affairs, and nearly half (48%) said they disapprove of his handling of the environment. Just over half (55%) said they approve of the way he has been dealing with terrorism.
Independents and especially Republicans are still firmly supportive of the job Bush has been doing as president, with 63% of independents and 97% of Republicans giving him an overall positive approval rating. However, the level of support among independents slipped downward eight points from 71% measured four months ago. Independents are split 48% approve to 46% disapprove on Bush’s handling of the economy, and 43% to 40% on the environment. Six in ten of that group approve of the President’s handling of foreign affairs, three-quarters approve of his handling of terrorism.
Congressional job approval is also slipping, heading steadily downward toward its pre-9/11 levels. Just under half (49%) of Americans gave Congress positive marks, compared to 53% last August. Previous Times Poll surveys found that public approval of Congress rose to a high of 69% in the months after the terrorist attacks in September of last year, and has been steadily dropping ever since.
The Economy
General Economic Outlook
While there is some evidence that any voter concerns about the economy were overshadowed by the Bush administrations focus on conflict with Iraq during the runup to the midterm elections last month, this survey shows that Americans are now increasingly turning their attention to the state of the economy, as the economic news worsens. More than half of Americans said the national economy is doing badly and six in ten said they felt the economy is in recession right now. More than a third cited the economy when asked to name the top priorities they would like to see President Bush and Congress address in the coming year, way ahead of other issues such as terrorism, homeland security, Iraq and education.
Slightly more than half (51%) gave President Bush positive marks for his handling of the economy so far while 43% said they disapproved of what he has been doing. However, when those who saw the economy in a negative light were asked who they blame for this state of affairs, more pointed the finger at President Bush’s policies than at any other cause.
There is a sense of growing unease. Just under half of Americans said the country is seriously off on the wrong track, which is almost double the proportion from nearly one year ago—in a February 2002 Times poll taken less than half a year after the terrorist attacks, only 26% said that the country was headed in the wrong direction. Forty-four percent in this survey said the country is heading in the right direction, down sharply from 65% in that previous poll. In addition, more than half (55%) in this survey said that the economy is doing either very or fairly badly, an increase in negativity from even last August when the Times Poll found nearly the same proportion saying it was doing well. Almost no one in this survey said the economy is doing “very well”, while almost two in ten said it is doing “very badly”.
The survey found that Americans’ view of the direction the country is headed is largely driven by their economic outlook—about two-thirds of those who said they think the economy is doing badly also said the country is off on the wrong track, while a similar proportion who said the economy is doing well also see the country as being headed in the right direction.
There isn’t a great deal of optimism among the public about the short term outlook, however, neither were they saying the outlook was dire. Nearly four in ten said that they think the economy will get better over the next six months while a bare plurality of 43% said it will stay the same and only 15% predicted actual worse times ahead.
Bush’s Economic Policies
President Bush’s handling of the economy was seen positively by just over half of all Americans, but like most of these economic issues, divided sharply along party and ideological lines. The president’s economic approval rating rose to over eight in ten among Republicans, not surprising among a group who are most likely to agree with Bush’s agenda of lowering taxes and increasing military spending. Nearly half of the party’s furthest right wing—conservative Republicans—approve strongly of Bush’s economic moves, compared to 42% among the GOP as a whole. For comparison, less than one in ten Democrats approve strongly. Just under half of independents said they disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy.
In early December, economic indicators worsened and Bush moved quickly to replace his top two economic advisors. Survey respondents were asked how confident they are that this new economic leadership will be able to stimulate the economy and improve growth. Just over half said they were at least somewhat confident, while 37% said they were not. However, once again, opinion on this matter divided sharply along partisan lines.
President George W. Bush
Just over half of American voters said they definitely or probably will vote to reelect Bush as president in 2004, including 16% of Democrats, 49% of independents, and 93% of Republicans.* Bush’s continuing public popularity evidently does not translate into guaranteed reelection. The campaign for president has yet to even get underway, of course. The recent announcement of Gore’s withdrawal from consideration for the Democratic nomination has blown that party’s field wide open. This survey shows that it is possible that the economy could once again become a major election issue, despite the recent focus on Iraq and anti-terrorism.
* Self-identified party affiliation.
Job Approvals
More than six in ten Americans gave George W. Bush a positive job approval rating, while a third disapprove. The survey shows, however, that the non-partisan nature of the public’s support for President Bush is beginning to crack.
When it comes to handling various issues such as the economy, foreign affairs, terrorism and the environment, members of Bush’s own party give him high marks across the board, and he has at least a majority thumbs-up from the public in general. Majorities of Democrats dislike his handling of the economy and foreign affairs. A plurality give him low marks for dealing with the environment, and only when it comes to fighting terrorism do they approve of the job he is doing.
Four months ago, in August, the Times Poll found Democrats divided in their opinion of the president with members of that party giving him a bare plurality of overall job approval, of 49% to 46%. The current survey shows Democratic sentiment hardening against Bush. Democrats said they disapproved of the job he is doing by a margin of twenty percentage points—57% to 37%. Just over two-thirds gave him low marks for his handling of the economy, 58% disapproved of his handling foreign affairs, and nearly half (48%) said they disapprove of his handling of the environment. Just over half (55%) said they approve of the way he has been dealing with terrorism.
Independents and especially Republicans are still firmly supportive of the job Bush has been doing as president, with 63% of independents and 97% of Republicans giving him an overall positive approval rating. However, the level of support among independents slipped downward eight points from 71% measured four months ago. Independents are split 48% approve to 46% disapprove on Bush’s handling of the economy, and 43% to 40% on the environment. Six in ten of that group approve of the President’s handling of foreign affairs, three-quarters approve of his handling of terrorism.
Congressional job approval is also slipping, heading steadily downward toward its pre-9/11 levels. Just under half (49%) of Americans gave Congress positive marks, compared to 53% last August. Previous Times Poll surveys found that public approval of Congress rose to a high of 69% in the months after the terrorist attacks in September of last year, and has been steadily dropping ever since.
The Economy
General Economic Outlook
While there is some evidence that any voter concerns about the economy were overshadowed by the Bush administrations focus on conflict with Iraq during the runup to the midterm elections last month, this survey shows that Americans are now increasingly turning their attention to the state of the economy, as the economic news worsens. More than half of Americans said the national economy is doing badly and six in ten said they felt the economy is in recession right now. More than a third cited the economy when asked to name the top priorities they would like to see President Bush and Congress address in the coming year, way ahead of other issues such as terrorism, homeland security, Iraq and education.
Slightly more than half (51%) gave President Bush positive marks for his handling of the economy so far while 43% said they disapproved of what he has been doing. However, when those who saw the economy in a negative light were asked who they blame for this state of affairs, more pointed the finger at President Bush’s policies than at any other cause.
There is a sense of growing unease. Just under half of Americans said the country is seriously off on the wrong track, which is almost double the proportion from nearly one year ago—in a February 2002 Times poll taken less than half a year after the terrorist attacks, only 26% said that the country was headed in the wrong direction. Forty-four percent in this survey said the country is heading in the right direction, down sharply from 65% in that previous poll. In addition, more than half (55%) in this survey said that the economy is doing either very or fairly badly, an increase in negativity from even last August when the Times Poll found nearly the same proportion saying it was doing well. Almost no one in this survey said the economy is doing “very well”, while almost two in ten said it is doing “very badly”.
The survey found that Americans’ view of the direction the country is headed is largely driven by their economic outlook—about two-thirds of those who said they think the economy is doing badly also said the country is off on the wrong track, while a similar proportion who said the economy is doing well also see the country as being headed in the right direction.
There isn’t a great deal of optimism among the public about the short term outlook, however, neither were they saying the outlook was dire. Nearly four in ten said that they think the economy will get better over the next six months while a bare plurality of 43% said it will stay the same and only 15% predicted actual worse times ahead.
Bush’s Economic Policies
President Bush’s handling of the economy was seen positively by just over half of all Americans, but like most of these economic issues, divided sharply along party and ideological lines. The president’s economic approval rating rose to over eight in ten among Republicans, not surprising among a group who are most likely to agree with Bush’s agenda of lowering taxes and increasing military spending. Nearly half of the party’s furthest right wing—conservative Republicans—approve strongly of Bush’s economic moves, compared to 42% among the GOP as a whole. For comparison, less than one in ten Democrats approve strongly. Just under half of independents said they disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy.
In early December, economic indicators worsened and Bush moved quickly to replace his top two economic advisors. Survey respondents were asked how confident they are that this new economic leadership will be able to stimulate the economy and improve growth. Just over half said they were at least somewhat confident, while 37% said they were not. However, once again, opinion on this matter divided sharply along partisan lines.
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