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A State of the Union address by the President of the United States is given to Congress and the American people to review the previous year’s progress on public policy issues and to also state what to expect in the coming year. This year was no exception. Although domestic policy was part of the president’s first half of the speech (i.e., accelerating tax cuts, redesigning Medicare and advocating faith based organizations as a way to give to charity and volunteerism), Iraq and the possibility of war, including the alleged nuclear weapons buildup in North Korea and terrorism, overshadowed the domestic issues, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.
FOR THE RECORD
A graphic that ran with a Times poll article in Tuesday's Section A gave the wrong Web address for additional information. The correct address is www.latimes.com/timespoll.
Americans listened carefully to President Bush, waiting to be convinced that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and that there is a direct link between Saddam Hussein and the terrorist organization, Al Qaeda. They didn’t believe the president made the case to go to war and they also didn’t believe that the UN weapons inspectors’ report had given them sufficient evidence either. The nation is ambivalent about the prospects of another war in the Persian Gulf. But one thing is certain—if Americans were convinced that Iraq and its leader, Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, they would support the president’s position for going to war.
Domestically, President Bush will have a tougher time getting the nation behind his agenda. The respondents surveyed were more inclined to support a tax plan proposed by House Democrats over President Bush’s. The public is more interested in focusing the economic agenda on spending for improvements to the country’s infrastructure than returning money back to taxpayers through tax cuts. The president knows very well that a perceived poor economy by the public is not in his best interest. He saw first hand the negative impact it had on his father, former president, George H.W. Bush. The public thought the elder president was out of step with the country. Clinton’s slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid” was the drumbeat that eventually helped the Democratic challenger beat the Republican incumbent. Most Americans are saying that the nation’s economy is doing poorly and it is being reflected in the president’s job performance ratings on the economy and in his job performance overall.
President’s Job Approval Ratings
Overall Rating: Many media and private polls are showing George W. Bush’s job approval rating declining over the last couple of months. And this poll is no exception. Fifty six percent of Americans approve of the way the president is handling his job, while 39% disapprove. This is a decline of seven points since only mid December 2002 when a Times poll showed Mr. Bush at 63% (a third disapproved). This result is similar to his job performance rating before September 11th 2001, but the lowest since the Times started tracking his job rating. (In April 2001 he received a 57% positive job rating.) Interestingly, when respondents were asked why they approved of the president’s job performance, more respondents cited personal attributes rather than any policy issue. Three out of 10 mentioned his strong leadership abilities and 15% cited his trustworthiness. Only 3% mentioned his tax cuts and 3% cited his economic package. When asked why they disapproved of Bush’s performance, most respondents cited issues, such as 40% said war with Iraq/rush to war with Iraq, 12% cited his economic package, 11% said handling of the war on terrorism and Al Qaeda and 10% suggested foreign policy in general.
Economy: His job performance on economic issues has declined since the Times poll asked this question in December. In this poll, by 47% to 45%, Americans are now somewhat divided. (In December 51% approved, while 43% disapproved.)
The economy in general is perceived as not doing well. Half of the respondents interviewed said that the country is seriously off on the wrong track, while almost two out of five believe it is going in the right direction. This is slightly worse than when respondents were asked the question in December (44% right direction and 47% wrong track). Nearly half of the public say that the economy is the most important problem facing the country today, outstripping the possibility of war and terrorism in the nation (40% mention Iraq and 14% cite terrorism). Along with these results, almost two thirds of the nation believe the economy is doing badly and 44% think the economy is only going to get worse. Thirteen percent think the economy is getting better and 42% say it is about the same. No matter if respondents were poor or affluent, they feel the same way about how the country is doing. More than three out of five respondents in each economic class think the economy is doing badly. However, there are differences when respondents were asked about their own personal finances. More than six out of 10 respondents with household income less than $20,000 say there personal finances are shaky compared to 42% who have income between $20,000 and $40,000; 28% with income between $40,000 and $60,000 and a fifth who have household earnings of more than $60,000.
Federal Budget: The federal budget is just one more economic issue. And once again, there is tepid support for the president’s handling of the budget. The budget is in a huge deficit and there is a possibility that money in the Social Security system will have to be used to prop up the budget. Forty-two percent say they approve of the president’s handling of the federal budget, while another 43% disapprove. However, this does not bode well for Mr. Bush. In an August ’02 Times poll, nearly half approved of his performance in handling the federal budget, while 37% disapproved. Men and women in this poll are also split on his handling of the federal budget, while independents and moderates disapprove. The divide between economic status is also there. Households with income less than $20,000 disapprove of President Bush’s job performance on the budget (56%), while a plurality of households with earnings of more than $60,000 give him a positive rating (47%), albeit a mild one. The younger respondents (18–29) disapprove of the president’s job performance on this issue (48%).
Environment: Although President Bush is perceived as not environmentally friendly (not signing the Kyoto Treaty on global warming, rescinding some of Clinton’s environmental laws, wanting to open up Alaska to oil drilling), more people approve of his handling the environment than disapprove (48%–30). Not surprisingly, Democrats and liberals disapprove, while pluralities of independents and self-described moderates barely approve (45% and 43%, respectively).
Terrorism: Since September 11, President Bush has gotten very high marks for his handling terrorism in the nation. And he still does. Almost three-quarters of Americans approve of his job performance in handling terrorism, while 22% disapprove. Right after 9/11, 86% of Americans in a September ’01 Times poll gave him positive ratings for this issue. His high marks on this cross political party lines and political ideology (from liberals to conservatives).
Iraq and Saddam Hussein: Nearly three out of five Americans approve of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Saddam Hussein in Iraq, while 38% disapprove. Virtually all Republicans are solidly behind Bush on this (74% approve strongly), while 59% of Democrats and 63% of self-described liberals disapprove. More men than women also approve (65%, 50% respectively). A majority of Americans (55%) trust that George W. Bush will make the right decision about Iraq. Women are not entirely convinced of that—49% trust him to do the right thing, while 43% don’t.
North Korea: Not as many respondents approve of the president’s handling the situation in North Korea as they do his job performance on Iraq. Nearly half (48%) approve of his job performance in working with North Korea, while 29% disapprove. There was, however, a larger undecided on this—23%.
Health Care: The president’s State of the Union address did not resonate with the American people as he hoped it would in terms of getting support for his agenda on health care and Medicare. Forty-five percent of the public disapprove of his job handling the cost and availability of health care, while 40% approve. Independents and moderates disapprove (45%, 52% respectively). The elderly are more disapproving (43%) than approving (38%). Nearly half of the baby boomers disapprove of his handling this issue.
Energy: Forty-five percent of Americans approve of his handling of the energy situation, while a third disapprove. Almost a quarter are not sure. Moderates are divided over this issue, while independents marginally approve.
Personal Attributes of the President: Perhaps because of 9/11 and his handling of terrorism and his leadership after the tragedy, 71% of Americans believe that Bush is a strong and decisive leader (even 55% of liberals think that and Democrats are virtually split); almost seven in 10 believe he is good in a crisis (Democrats and liberals also think this).
Although Mr. Bush gets high marks on most personal attributes, these ratings decline slightly when asked about caring about people like you and sharing the public’s values. More than half (54%) of respondents say that President Bush cares about people like themselves and nearly six out of 10 (58%) respondents say that the president shares the same values as they do (moderates and independents think that as well).
The Times Poll started asking the following question during the Clinton administration (mainly because of the impeachment trial and the president’s character flaws) and it clearly shows that people have different opinions about how they feel about the president and his policies and how they feel toward him as a person. During the Clinton era, a Times poll in September ’00 showed that a third of registered voters liked Clinton as a person, but 65% disliked him personally. However, the reverse happened when asked about his policy. Sixty-one percent said they liked Clinton’s policies, while 37% disliked them. This didn’t change much even during the impeachment trial. Now in this current poll about President Bush, it is very evident that Bush is a much more likable president. Three quarters of the American people like Bush personally and just 21% dislike him. But more people dislike his policies than they did Clinton’s. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed like Bush’s policies while 42% dislike them. The likability factor plus the horrific tragedy of 9/11 have helped Bush push through some of his agenda and show him as a decisive and strong leader. There wasn’t much expectation from this president, but people feel he grew into the job.
“I like GW Bush as a person and I also like most of his policies” 51% “I like GW Bush as a person but I don’t like most of his policies” 26% “I don’t like GW Bush as a person, but I do like most of his policies” 4% “I don’t like GW Bush and I also don’t like most of his policies” 17%
FOR THE RECORD
A graphic that ran with a Times poll article in Tuesday's Section A gave the wrong Web address for additional information. The correct address is www.latimes.com/timespoll.
Americans listened carefully to President Bush, waiting to be convinced that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and that there is a direct link between Saddam Hussein and the terrorist organization, Al Qaeda. They didn’t believe the president made the case to go to war and they also didn’t believe that the UN weapons inspectors’ report had given them sufficient evidence either. The nation is ambivalent about the prospects of another war in the Persian Gulf. But one thing is certain—if Americans were convinced that Iraq and its leader, Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, they would support the president’s position for going to war.
Domestically, President Bush will have a tougher time getting the nation behind his agenda. The respondents surveyed were more inclined to support a tax plan proposed by House Democrats over President Bush’s. The public is more interested in focusing the economic agenda on spending for improvements to the country’s infrastructure than returning money back to taxpayers through tax cuts. The president knows very well that a perceived poor economy by the public is not in his best interest. He saw first hand the negative impact it had on his father, former president, George H.W. Bush. The public thought the elder president was out of step with the country. Clinton’s slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid” was the drumbeat that eventually helped the Democratic challenger beat the Republican incumbent. Most Americans are saying that the nation’s economy is doing poorly and it is being reflected in the president’s job performance ratings on the economy and in his job performance overall.
President’s Job Approval Ratings
Overall Rating: Many media and private polls are showing George W. Bush’s job approval rating declining over the last couple of months. And this poll is no exception. Fifty six percent of Americans approve of the way the president is handling his job, while 39% disapprove. This is a decline of seven points since only mid December 2002 when a Times poll showed Mr. Bush at 63% (a third disapproved). This result is similar to his job performance rating before September 11th 2001, but the lowest since the Times started tracking his job rating. (In April 2001 he received a 57% positive job rating.) Interestingly, when respondents were asked why they approved of the president’s job performance, more respondents cited personal attributes rather than any policy issue. Three out of 10 mentioned his strong leadership abilities and 15% cited his trustworthiness. Only 3% mentioned his tax cuts and 3% cited his economic package. When asked why they disapproved of Bush’s performance, most respondents cited issues, such as 40% said war with Iraq/rush to war with Iraq, 12% cited his economic package, 11% said handling of the war on terrorism and Al Qaeda and 10% suggested foreign policy in general.
Economy: His job performance on economic issues has declined since the Times poll asked this question in December. In this poll, by 47% to 45%, Americans are now somewhat divided. (In December 51% approved, while 43% disapproved.)
The economy in general is perceived as not doing well. Half of the respondents interviewed said that the country is seriously off on the wrong track, while almost two out of five believe it is going in the right direction. This is slightly worse than when respondents were asked the question in December (44% right direction and 47% wrong track). Nearly half of the public say that the economy is the most important problem facing the country today, outstripping the possibility of war and terrorism in the nation (40% mention Iraq and 14% cite terrorism). Along with these results, almost two thirds of the nation believe the economy is doing badly and 44% think the economy is only going to get worse. Thirteen percent think the economy is getting better and 42% say it is about the same. No matter if respondents were poor or affluent, they feel the same way about how the country is doing. More than three out of five respondents in each economic class think the economy is doing badly. However, there are differences when respondents were asked about their own personal finances. More than six out of 10 respondents with household income less than $20,000 say there personal finances are shaky compared to 42% who have income between $20,000 and $40,000; 28% with income between $40,000 and $60,000 and a fifth who have household earnings of more than $60,000.
Federal Budget: The federal budget is just one more economic issue. And once again, there is tepid support for the president’s handling of the budget. The budget is in a huge deficit and there is a possibility that money in the Social Security system will have to be used to prop up the budget. Forty-two percent say they approve of the president’s handling of the federal budget, while another 43% disapprove. However, this does not bode well for Mr. Bush. In an August ’02 Times poll, nearly half approved of his performance in handling the federal budget, while 37% disapproved. Men and women in this poll are also split on his handling of the federal budget, while independents and moderates disapprove. The divide between economic status is also there. Households with income less than $20,000 disapprove of President Bush’s job performance on the budget (56%), while a plurality of households with earnings of more than $60,000 give him a positive rating (47%), albeit a mild one. The younger respondents (18–29) disapprove of the president’s job performance on this issue (48%).
Environment: Although President Bush is perceived as not environmentally friendly (not signing the Kyoto Treaty on global warming, rescinding some of Clinton’s environmental laws, wanting to open up Alaska to oil drilling), more people approve of his handling the environment than disapprove (48%–30). Not surprisingly, Democrats and liberals disapprove, while pluralities of independents and self-described moderates barely approve (45% and 43%, respectively).
Terrorism: Since September 11, President Bush has gotten very high marks for his handling terrorism in the nation. And he still does. Almost three-quarters of Americans approve of his job performance in handling terrorism, while 22% disapprove. Right after 9/11, 86% of Americans in a September ’01 Times poll gave him positive ratings for this issue. His high marks on this cross political party lines and political ideology (from liberals to conservatives).
Iraq and Saddam Hussein: Nearly three out of five Americans approve of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Saddam Hussein in Iraq, while 38% disapprove. Virtually all Republicans are solidly behind Bush on this (74% approve strongly), while 59% of Democrats and 63% of self-described liberals disapprove. More men than women also approve (65%, 50% respectively). A majority of Americans (55%) trust that George W. Bush will make the right decision about Iraq. Women are not entirely convinced of that—49% trust him to do the right thing, while 43% don’t.
North Korea: Not as many respondents approve of the president’s handling the situation in North Korea as they do his job performance on Iraq. Nearly half (48%) approve of his job performance in working with North Korea, while 29% disapprove. There was, however, a larger undecided on this—23%.
Health Care: The president’s State of the Union address did not resonate with the American people as he hoped it would in terms of getting support for his agenda on health care and Medicare. Forty-five percent of the public disapprove of his job handling the cost and availability of health care, while 40% approve. Independents and moderates disapprove (45%, 52% respectively). The elderly are more disapproving (43%) than approving (38%). Nearly half of the baby boomers disapprove of his handling this issue.
Energy: Forty-five percent of Americans approve of his handling of the energy situation, while a third disapprove. Almost a quarter are not sure. Moderates are divided over this issue, while independents marginally approve.
Personal Attributes of the President: Perhaps because of 9/11 and his handling of terrorism and his leadership after the tragedy, 71% of Americans believe that Bush is a strong and decisive leader (even 55% of liberals think that and Democrats are virtually split); almost seven in 10 believe he is good in a crisis (Democrats and liberals also think this).
Although Mr. Bush gets high marks on most personal attributes, these ratings decline slightly when asked about caring about people like you and sharing the public’s values. More than half (54%) of respondents say that President Bush cares about people like themselves and nearly six out of 10 (58%) respondents say that the president shares the same values as they do (moderates and independents think that as well).
The Times Poll started asking the following question during the Clinton administration (mainly because of the impeachment trial and the president’s character flaws) and it clearly shows that people have different opinions about how they feel about the president and his policies and how they feel toward him as a person. During the Clinton era, a Times poll in September ’00 showed that a third of registered voters liked Clinton as a person, but 65% disliked him personally. However, the reverse happened when asked about his policy. Sixty-one percent said they liked Clinton’s policies, while 37% disliked them. This didn’t change much even during the impeachment trial. Now in this current poll about President Bush, it is very evident that Bush is a much more likable president. Three quarters of the American people like Bush personally and just 21% dislike him. But more people dislike his policies than they did Clinton’s. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed like Bush’s policies while 42% dislike them. The likability factor plus the horrific tragedy of 9/11 have helped Bush push through some of his agenda and show him as a decisive and strong leader. There wasn’t much expectation from this president, but people feel he grew into the job.
“I like GW Bush as a person and I also like most of his policies” 51% “I like GW Bush as a person but I don’t like most of his policies” 26% “I don’t like GW Bush as a person, but I do like most of his policies” 4% “I don’t like GW Bush and I also don’t like most of his policies” 17%
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