Move by Chinese Congress Alarms Taiwan

Relations across the Taiwan Strait were supposed to be on the mend following legislative elections in which Taiwan’s pro-independence camp failed to win a majority. Then, on Friday, Beijing rattled the cage once again by proposing an anti-secession law. Taipei retaliated Saturday, accusing the mainland of threatening war.

The Chinese initiative, proposed by the National People’s Congress, is technically not very different from its official stance that Taiwan is part of China and Beijing will use force to take it back if necessary.

But Taiwan is concerned that the latest move is a sign that Communist Party leaders’ patience is running out.

“This is an indication China is still very much adamant in trying to stop the independence movement in Taiwan,” said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a Taipei think thank. “By giving it a legal framework, they have enhanced their approach to justify a more coercive means to unify Taiwan.”

Beijing has long viewed Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian as a problem child who has repeatedly pushed China’s buttons with his call to amend the island’s constitution and push for a separate national identity.

But his party’s defeat in the legislative elections this month sabotaged Chen’s ability to push for a more aggressive independence policy.

This would have been a perfect time to build bridges, leading some analysts to see the anti-secession legislation less as a means to discipline Chen and more as an indication of Communist Party infighting.

Under former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Beijing’s reaction to Taiwanese provocations was to saber-rattle. Each time, the tactic seemed to backfire and push the island further away.

President Hu Jintao seems to prefer a more hands-off approach. That gave him a diplomatic triumph in stopping more pro-independence victories during Taiwan’s recent elections. But analysts say that does not sit well with the party’s hard-liners, whose approach had failed.

“It’s a way for them to gather some lost face,” Michael DeGolyer, a political scientist with Hong Kong Baptist University, said of Friday’s move by the People’s Congress. “It also binds Hu’s hands a little. If Hu’s too compromising, he can be accused of encouraging secession.”

Authorities gave no additional details on the legislation, which will be debated this week. Nor did it indicate that there would be a timetable mandating unification. In fact, Taiwan’s name is not even mentioned.

But any push toward military action against Taiwan would put Washington, Taiwan’s main arms supplier, in a bind. When President Bush first came to office, he said he would do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan. More recently he has warned Taipei against any move to upset the status quo and appealed to both sides for dialogue.

Relations with the United States would be further complicated if China succeeded in persuading the European Union to lift its long-standing ban on weapons sales to Beijing. Despite the denial of an imminent spending spree, many say it’s clear that China would use any opportunity to upgrade its military capabilities and enhance its position against Taiwan.

“Both sides are heading to a more confrontational position,” Yang said from Taipei. “The situation is tense and will be even more tense in the near future.”