Iraqi downplays Turkey’s military intentions

Turkey might launch airstrikes or a limited ground incursion against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq but is not likely to unleash a major offensive, Iraq’s foreign minister said Thursday.

His statement came as thousands of Iraqi Kurds demonstrated against a possible incursion into the north, vowing to fight Turkish troops that cross the border.

Turkey’s parliament on Wednesday authorized the country’s military to pursue Kurdish fighters from Turkey into Iraq during the next year. The vote fanned fears that a strike would damage the prosperity of the three primarily Kurdish provinces in the north, widely considered the leading success story in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.

However, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari downplayed the chances of Turkey taking robust action against rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, who operate in the rugged terrain of Iraq’s Qandil mountains.

He cited the imminent winter, Turkey’s plans to soon send a delegation to Baghdad, a coming visit by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the United States, and the hosting Nov. 2 and 3 in Istanbul of a conference on Iraq to be attended by regional foreign ministers and others.

“I don’t believe there will be any large-scale Turkish military incursions across the border,” said the foreign minister, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

“If the worst would happen, one would not discount some air attacks on some . . . PKK positions or some very limited operations . . . to send some troops across certain border points to look for PKK,” he said.

The Turkish threat has put the Bush administration in a bind: Turkey is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally that provides air bases and supply routes supporting American forces in Iraq, yet the Iraqi Kurds have been key allies of the U.S. going back to Hussein’s rule.

Since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, American officials have tried to persuade Iraq’s Kurds to move more aggressively against the PKK rebels, who have attacked soldiers and civilians in Turkey from bases in northern Iraq. But the discussions have gone nowhere, in part because the Turks have been unwilling to negotiate with the Iraqi Kurds’ regional government for fear of legitimizing the Kurdish cause.

Turkey has launched periodic air and artillery strikes against PKK bases in Iraq for years. It has stationed troop contingents in the border areas since the late 1990s.

Zebari attributed the Turkish parliamentary vote to internal politics that had little to do with the Kurds and everything to do with tensions between Turkey’s Islamist-led government and strictly secular military.

“It was more about Turkish domestic politics to reassure the public and the military that the government is doing something,” Zebari said.

But despite Turkey’s tough talk, Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations noted Wednesday, the government in Ankara and the military are reluctant to launch an attack in Iraq. Both understand that it would be difficult to root out the PKK in the rocky terrain of northern Iraq and that doing so would cost Turkish lives. Such a move also would worsen relations with the United States and further jeopardize Turkey’s chances of European Union membership.

“They don’t want to get stuck up there,” he said of Turkish leaders.

The saber-rattling in Turkey prompted a backlash Thursday in northern Iraq. Residents of several Kurdish towns and cities, including Dahuk and Irbil, took to the streets in protest.

Banners written in Arabic said: “No to a military solution for PKK problem.”

Men and women chanted, “Kurdistan is one! All Kurds are peshmerga defending it!” a reference to Kurdish militia fighters.

Hawasar Fatah, a high school student, vowed to fight if Turkey invaded. “I want to say that we will not let them come inside Kurdistan.”

One peshmerga pledged to fight in case of an invasion, saying, “I won’t hesitate to go and sacrifice myself and even my old wife in order to stop Turkish aggression on Kurdistan.”

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ned.parker@latimes.com

paul.richter@latimes.com

Parker reported from Baghdad and Richter from Washington. Special correspondent Asso Ahmed in northern Iraq and Times staff writer Saif Hameed in Baghdad contributed to this report.