A new term is unlikely to end Musharraf’s troubles

Gen. Pervez Musharraf, though battered by an extraordinary outpouring of public anger at his autocratic rule, is poised this weekend to claim a new five-year term as president, seemingly cementing his status as Pakistan’s survivor in chief.

Having muscled his way through months of concerted attempts by foes to drive him from office, Musharraf appears set to be reelected Saturday by lawmakers -- while still wearing the military uniform that has been a hated symbol of his near-absolute authority.

The vote was meant to enhance the legitimacy of a president who seized power in a coup in 1999. But analysts say the 64-year-old leader is emerging instead with his stature diminished, in all likelihood beyond repair.

And Musharraf will probably suffer yet more blows in coming months as the balance of power shifts in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed ally of the U.S. in a volatile region where Al Qaeda and the Taliban have sunk deep roots.

“This vote will be a hollow victory for him,” said Shafqat Mehmood, a former senator turned political analyst. “All I see ahead for him is instability, difficulty, problems.”

Initially welcomed as an antidote to the corruption and inefficiency that beset previous administrations, Musharraf in his early years positioned himself as a moderate-minded reformist and won plaudits for helping spur economic growth. But disillusionment set in as he clung to his military role, stunted the independence of the judiciary and brushed aside human rights concerns.

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Disunited opposition

Although Musharraf is now highly unpopular among broad segments of Pakistani society, the opposition is badly fractured. His foes, ranging from liberal intellectuals to Islamic militants, have little in the way of a common agenda, other than his ouster.

In large measure because of that disunity, the general has managed to fight off challenges in a variety of venues.

In recent months, opponents have pressed their cause before Pakistan’s emboldened Supreme Court, excoriated Musharraf in the media, mobilized massive demonstrations against him and, in the case of the militants, staged an unrelenting series of attacks on the army he so proudly oversees.

Unlike a 2002 referendum in which Musharraf sought to legitimize his power but ran unopposed, two other candidates are contesting Saturday’s balloting by the national and provincial assemblies. The general’s party says it has the votes to win, even after more than 80 opposition lawmakers resigned this week to protest what they said was the unconstitutionality of Musharraf running for office while still in uniform.

If last-ditch court challenges fail and the vote is held, it’s unlikely Musharraf will gain much respite from the tumult that has gripped Pakistan since March, when he inadvertently galvanized a nationwide democracy movement by trying to fire the popular chief justice.

Looming on the horizon is the general’s promise to relinquish his role as head of the army before his expected presidential inauguration in mid-November. He reneged on a similar pledge in 2004 with little repercussion. But this time, the promise was conveyed by his lawyer during Supreme Court proceedings, giving it greater official weight.

The Pakistani leader has positioned one of his closest confidants, former spymaster Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kiani, to succeed him as military chief. Although Kiani is seen as a Musharraf loyalist with little appetite for personal political power, analysts say that at some point he may seek to assert his authority, at least in the military sphere.

“Inevitably, [Musharraf] will lose a great deal of his influence over the army,” said Frederic Grare, a former diplomat who is now a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. The Pakistani military, the world’s sixth largest, is perhaps the nation’s most powerful institution, with a reach that includes vast financial holdings.

Musharraf’s stage-managed reelection bid comes less than two weeks before the planned homecoming of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, whose party is expected to perform strongly in parliamentary elections that are to take place by mid-January. A power-sharing accord between the two figures is reported to be imminent, but it will probably come at considerable political cost to both.

Under the probable terms of the pact, Bhutto, who has been living in self-imposed exile, would be granted an amnesty on corruption charges dating back to the 1990s and gain the support of Musharraf’s party for a constitutional change to allow her to seek a third term as prime minister.

But Saturday’s presidential vote will represent a degree of failure for Bhutto as well. She had wanted Musharraf to give up his army job before his reelection bid. She also opposed his reelection by the outgoing assemblies, of which he won control in a vote widely believed to have been rigged, rather than by the next parliament.

Many within Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party fear she has damaged her own standing by dealing with Musharraf. The general, for his part, faced anger from some in his inner circle who suspect, probably correctly, that they will be sidelined in any power-sharing arrangement

Bhutto is also pressing for curbs on the president’s authority to dissolve parliament, a step Musharraf is said to have considered as his troubles mounted.

In August, aides said he weighed the idea of imposing emergency rule or martial law, only to have Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice talk him out of the move in a predawn telephone call.

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Rough tactics

In the weeks leading up to Saturday’s balloting, Musharraf used increasingly rough tactics against his opponents.

He tossed former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif out of the country within hours of the long-exiled politician’s return last month, despite an explicit Supreme Court order to the contrary.

The government acknowledges jailing hundreds of opposition figures at the time of Sharif’s aborted return; activists put the number in the thousands. Police last weekend used tear gas and beat lawyers and human rights activists protesting Musharraf’s reelection plans.

Pakistani journalists have faced what they say has been an intensifying campaign of intimidation by the government, including beatings, threats and efforts to restrict coverage of opposition rallies.

At the same time, the last month has seen a marked deterioration in the army’s efforts to move against Islamic militants based in Pakistan’s tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan.

Musharraf beefed up the troop presence in the borderlands over the summer, under strong pressure from the Bush administration to root out Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters ensconced there.

But his soldiers have suffered one demoralizing setback after another. In the latest of those, militants on Thursday executed three of the more than 230 Pakistani troops they are holding captive. Most of those soldiers had surrendered without firing a shot.

Although the Bush administration issued a rare rebuke of Musharraf last month over the jailing of opposition figures, it has consistently offered public praise for his role in fighting terrorism. That has led many in Pakistan to accuse the U.S. administration of turning a blind eye to the general’s repressive tactics.

“The United States is more concerned about securing its strategic, political and economic interests rather than promoting the forces of democracy,” commentator Moonis Ahmar wrote in the Dawn newspaper this week.

The Bush administration has repeatedly expressed hopes for a peaceful transition to civilian rule in Pakistan, a scenario it believes is best served by Musharraf remaining in power in coming months.

The general has portrayed Saturday’s vote as a conciliatory gesture meant to lay to rest months of political strife. However, many activists believe prospects for free and fair parliamentary elections in the months ahead are becoming dimmer -- in part due to widespread anger over the methods Musharraf used to keep a grip on power.

“Some polarization is natural as we approach elections, but the divisions are sharpening every day,” said Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the executive director of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency.

“The battle lines have been drawn now, and no one knows how it will end.”

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laura.king@latimes.com