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Uh-oh, Taiwan was watching

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Times Staff Writer

China’s bad week could get even worse. Beijing’s crackdown on protesters in Tibet has given a last-minute boost to the ruling party it would rather see lose in Taiwan’s presidential election Saturday -- just when the mainland thought its eight-year nightmare was over.

After suffering two terms of China-baiting by President Chen Shui-bian and his government, Beijing was looking forward to a victory by opposition candidate Ma Ying-jeou of the pro-mainland Nationalist Party.

But China’s handling of the Tibet unrest and some last-minute Nationalist missteps have narrowed Ma’s lead to less than 5 percentage points in recent days, according to some polls, from as much as 20 in January, although he’s still expected to win.

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“The more Beijing cracks down, the better it is for us,” said Antonio Chiang, a former aide to Chen. “Our morale has really improved. Tibet came to help us at the last moment.”

No matter which candidate wins, Ma or ruling Democratic Progressive Party contender Frank Hsieh, Taiwan is likely to enjoy better relations with both Washington and Beijing, despite Taiwan’s expanding sense of an identity distinct from China.

Both candidates have vowed to strengthen economic links with the mainland, improve shaky ties with the U.S. and focus more on bread-and-butter issues affecting the island’s 23 million people.

Though election promises are cheap, voters are also heartened by a general perception that either contender would bring a steadier hand to the job than the mercurial Chen, known for policy flip-flops and rapid-fire personnel changes.

“We need some stability and prosperity,” Carol Chin, 53, a retired civil servant still undecided on whom to vote for, said as she juggled two bags of groceries. “People are exhausted.”

The president has managed a parting shot at China by engineering a referendum on whether the island should apply to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan. China, which considers the island its territory, views the measure as provocative, destabilizing and a threat to its sovereignty.

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Though pundits believe the referendum will fail, a second one submitted defensively by the Nationalists, calling for a U.N. application under Taiwan’s official name -- Republic of China -- stands a better chance. Beijing doesn’t like this one either because it also implies that Taiwan is a country.

On Thursday, a noisy convoy of motorcycles, trucks and taxis headed down Taipei’s Tong Shan Street with drums banging and flags waving. “Vote for No. 1 Frank Hsieh,” a voice blared through a microphone. “Please! Please!”

Though Hsieh is still No. 2 in most polls, the fact that he is this close this late in the game has advisors in Ma’s camp fretting. On Thursday, Ma’s campaign warned supporters to watch out for “400 to 500” last-minute dirty tricks the ruling party might employ.

“The DPP are pretty good campaigners,” said Joanna Lei, Ma’s deputy campaign manager. “This has always been an election for Ma Ying-jeou to lose, and Tibet hasn’t helped.”

In recent years, China has learned the hard way that heavy-handed intervention in Taiwanese elections tends to backfire. In 1996 it lobbed missiles toward the island. Four years later, it launched a verbal barrage, each time hurting the candidate it favored.

This year it studiously tried to avoid any appearance of meddling, even announcing in February that it would suspend all academic and professional exchanges until after the election as part of its hands-off approach. This in spite of its clear preference for Ma, a soft-spoken Harvard Law School graduate.

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But the Tibet crackdown and resultant global criticism have produced the same result, hurting the Nationalists by making some voters wary that Beijing might at some point take heavy-handed action toward the island.

Hsieh, seen as quietly competent, was far behind in the polls for much of this year, largely because of Chen’s weak record. It remains to be seen whether Tibet, the opposition’s missteps and the DPP’s bid to burnish its economic credentials and distance itself from its own corruption scandals will be enough to sway voters.

“I wouldn’t say we’re confident, but we have a better chance than we did two weeks ago,” said Kenneth Lin, Hsieh’s economic and foreign policy advisor.

If Beijing harbors any hope that the idea of a Taiwanese identity distinct from China will eventually fade away, it appears misguided. “Taiwan identity is not just a game, it’s now part of the political reality,” said Stephen Yates, an analyst with the American Foreign Policy Council.

Even Ma has been speaking the Taiwanese dialect on the campaign trail and otherwise distancing himself from Beijing by suggesting that Taiwan might boycott the Olympics over the Tibet issue. This has not been a popular stance in Beijing -- or among Taiwan’s sports fans, who are ecstatic that the island recently qualified for a baseball berth at the Olympics.

The opposition Nationalists were also hurt by an incident a week ago in which four of their legislators entered the DPP campaign headquarters and demanded to see lease documents, claiming Hsieh wasn’t paying full rent. After a fight broke out and the legislators had to be extricated, one of the Nationalists threatened suicide if Ma didn’t win.

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But Tang Ruihong, 62, a taxi driver with porcelain dogs, glass flowers and model helicopters decorating his dashboard, is voting for the Nationalists anyway, convinced they can do a better job of jump-starting the economy.

“Of course the Nationalists are also corrupt, but at least they do it in a low-key way,” he said. “It’s not so blatant and public the way the DPP are.”

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mark.magnier@latimes.com

Special correspondent Tsai Ting-I contributed to this report.

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