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Castro Pronounces Condition Stable

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Times Staff Writers

President Fidel Castro proclaimed himself in stable condition and good spirits in a statement read on state television Tuesday. But the message also made clear that his health remained precarious after an operation to stem intestinal bleeding.

Neither Castro, soon to turn 80, nor his 75-year-old brother and designated successor, Raul, were seen in public or on television during a day in which speculation was rampant that the bearded revolutionary might be on death’s doorstep.

No information has been released on where Castro has been treated or hospitalized or on the details of his operation and prognosis.

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But the relatively upbeat statement read during the nightly political affairs program “Round Table” appeared meant to dispel the more dire rumors, circulating mostly among fiercely anti-Castro exiles in Miami, that he had died and the transfer of governing authority to Raul was hastily arranged to buy time to prepare the Cuban public for their first leadership change in nearly half a century.

“I cannot make up positive news,” Castro’s statement warned, hinting at the gravity of his condition before deeming his health stable. “As for my spirits, I feel perfectly fine.”

As he had in a message Monday, Castro alluded to the need for his fellow citizens to be vigilant amid what he deems threats of aggression from the United States and appeared to warn Washington and Cuban dissidents against any attempt to take advantage of the temporary power shift.

“The country is prepared for its defense,” he said, urging Cubans to “struggle and work.”

In a report read Tuesday on Radio Reloj, Castro was said to have promised “to rule from my bed,” a possible indication he might resume the presidential, military, political and governing powers he handed over to his brother and other Communist Party stalwarts Monday. In the statement read on state TV by his personal secretary Tuesday, Castro even deeded responsibility for several key committees he heads to party colleagues to press on with the campaigns for education, healthcare and energy conservation.

The head of Cuba’s parliament, National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon, had earlier disputed contentions in exile circles that Castro had died or was about to.

“The imperialists ignore the strength of Fidel Castro,” Alarcon said in an interview with the news agency Prensa Latina. Castro will fight fiercely to the end, he said, “but this end is very far away.”

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Alarcon disparaged as “nauseating” the images broadcast by international TV networks of Cuban exiles dancing in the streets of Miami and expressing hopes that Castro was dead.

In central Havana on Tuesday evening, a sense of calm prevailed on the streets and in the parks, restaurants and cafes.

Lovers huddled together along the Malecon, as they would on any other night. European tourists took part in horse-carriage rides and sightseeing. The police presence throughout the city was at its normal levels, and no army troops were in view.

Few people seemed to be paying much attention to the government broadcasts on television and radio concerning Castro’s condition. Instead, the city’s usual nocturnal soundscape of hip-hop, soul and jazz prevailed.

Cuba’s official Granma newspaper reported on its website that throughout the country, normality reigned, with Cubans going to work and otherwise going about their business.

The political drama surrounding Castro’s latest bout of ill health was seen in Washington as a test run for a transition anticipated for decades, a chance for the communist government to demonstrate that plans for a peaceful transfer of power are workable and that the revolution will outlive its leader.

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“This is a dry run for their succession plan,” a U.S. intelligence official said.

The official added that developments in Havana were being monitored not only by analysts at the CIA, but also by senior figures in the Cuban government searching for signs of emerging opposition or threats to the regime during Castro’s first absence from the helm.

At the White House, Press Secretary Tony Snow said the news had not yet resulted in substantive change in U.S. relations with Cuba.

“For the dictator, Fidel Castro, to hand off power to his brother, who’s been the prison keeper, is not a change in that status,” Snow said at a briefing. “So Raul Castro’s attempt to impose himself on the Cuban people is much the same as what his brother did. So no, there are no plans to reach out.

“The one thing we want to do is to continue to assure the people of Cuba that we stand ready to help,” Snow added.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack declined to respond to questions on the nature of Castro’s illness and labeled as “hypothetical” the premise of a reporter’s question: whether the Bush administration would soften the U.S. embargo under a Cuba led by Raul Castro.

Officially, the Bush administration policy toward Cuba calls for “a hastened transition to democracy,” a euphemism for encouraging Castro’s overthrow and an end to the authoritarian system he established there in 1959. The administration has in place a series of measures aimed at putting pressure on the Havana government as well as steps aimed at assisting Cuba’s transition toward democracy once Castro has gone.

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Many of these plans are contained in an official document called the Second Report of the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, made public recently at a news conference by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez.

The report calls for $80 million over a two-year period to strengthen democratic opposition movements and finance conventional and satellite broadcasts into Cuba. It also outlines backing for any transitional government that moves toward democracy. “At a time of great uncertainty, we want to let the people of Cuba know that we affirm our commitment,” Gutierrez told reporters in Washington on Tuesday.

After decades of formal planning for a post-Castro era, U.S. officials were cautious in their assessments.

Some U.S. officials who have dealt closely with Cuba said Raul Castro was a weak figure unlikely to hold power for long after his brother dies. Retired Army Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, who had an extended meeting with Fidel and Raul Castro four years ago and has remained active in U.S.-Cuban policy, said he believed Raul would quickly be ousted by a younger generation of Cuban leaders who have been biding their time until Fidel dies.

“There’s a group of ferociously bright people in their 40s who speak English and drive European cars,” said McCaffrey, who in the 1990s headed the U.S. Southern Command, the Pentagon division responsible for Latin America. “There’s 30 compadres, all of whom have guns and badges, and they’ve been talking for years that when this old fool dies, they’re going to take over.”

McCaffrey warned, however, that because the U.S. government had not been engaged with Cuba in decades, many younger Cuban leaders were largely unknown to American policymakers, making a post-Castro transition fraught with uncertainty. “Our policy has been locked in 1960 and Cuba has been locked in 1959,” McCaffrey said.

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From a security standpoint, McCaffrey warned that most U.S. government analysts believed that Castro’s death could lead to a massive wave of Cuban refugees attempting to leave the island, as well as a smaller group of Cuban Americans seeking to return, an exchange that could cause considerable instability.

Military officials with the U.S. Southern Command said they planned to monitor developments. But Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), a Cuban American, said that he had been briefed by the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard in recent weeks and that military officials were prepared to help head off an exodus from Cuba.

Some U.S. officials and advocates of a better relationship with Cuba urged Washington to refrain from trying to destabilize Cuba while its leader is ailing.

“This moment presents a golden opportunity for the United States to demonstrate a true spirit of friendship with the Cuban people.... The president and Congress should look to remove some of the layers of sanctions, restrictions and bureaucracy that have accumulated against Cuba over more than four decades,” said Jake Colvin, head of USA Engage, a coalition of businesses seeking trade with Cuba.

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Williams reported from Guantanamo Bay and Miller and Spiegel from Washington. Times staff writer Tyler Marshall in Washington and a special correspondent in Havana also contributed to this report.

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