U.S. Options on Confronting Iran Limited

President Bush, who has defined his dealings with Iran in terms of confrontation since the early days of his administration, may have been drawn one step closer to a showdown after Tehran asserted Tuesday that it had successfully produced enriched uranium that can be used as nuclear fuel.

Through years of tough talk and veiled threats, Bush and members of his administration have been the chief proponents of ratcheting up international pressure to persuade Iran’s leaders to accede to demands that they forswear atomic weapons and steer clear of nuclear enrichment work. In its new national security manifesto, the White House warned in stark terms last month that diplomatic efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program must succeed “if confrontation is to be avoided.”

But Tuesday’s announcement is certain to raise questions not only about Bush’s approach to the Iranian nuclear issue, but also about other U.S. judgments, such as whether U.S. intelligence agencies are able to accurately assess Iran’s capabilities and intentions.

U.S. officials have based their approach toward Iran on a conviction that sustained pressure from the world community would force the Iranian leadership to back down, arguing that this has long been Iran’s pattern.

Iran’s announcement “seems to negate that idea,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“What they’re trying to say is, ‘That type of pressure isn’t going to work, and we’ll meet pressure with our own countermeasures,’ ” Takeyh said.

Bush administration officials have rejected suggestions that they negotiate directly with Iran. But they have pursued a diplomatic course from a distance, backing efforts by European negotiators while constantly criticizing Iran, refusing to disavow U.S. military options and pushing for international sanctions by the United Nations.

If that approach has proven ineffective, Bush is likely to face questions from across the political spectrum about whether a different approach -- softer or harder -- may have been better.

The Iranians insist their only objective is to develop a peaceful, civilian nuclear energy program. And they say they have now succeeded in enriching uranium to the concentration needed for civilian nuclear power generation. It is unclear whether they yet have the kind of mastery of the process they would need to enrich uranium on an industrial scale necessary to eventually produce nuclear weapons fuel.

Bush, for his part, has declared in the past that he wants to prevent Iran from enriching uranium even to the point necessary for civilian use, fearing that capability could lead to the ability to produce a bomb.

“Enrichment and reprocessing on Iranian soil ... is not acceptable to the international community,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last month.

Iran’s announcement appeared to be timed to convince the U.N. Security Council that there was no longer any need for the council to press the country to halt its nuclear research program. “They want to be able to present this as a fait accompli,” Takeyh said.

Such a defiant declaration would quickly test the U.S. plan to confront Iran with a unified world response. Some countries may be galvanized to more forceful action by the Iranian news. But others, such as Russia, have already been convinced that Iran was going to gain nuclear capability sooner or later. For them, the news may further lessen their appetite for a dispute with Tehran.

Within the United States, the enrichment announcement is likely to bring a challenge to the Bush policy from conservative opponents of containment who have been urging more forceful action, fearing that the administration was taking too much time trying to build a consensus and gradually increasing pressure on Tehran.

U.S. intelligence officials have estimated that Iran is five to 10 years away from being able to develop a nuclear bomb. But even before Tuesday’s announcement, Israel had estimated that Iran could gain the knowledge needed to build a bomb within the next few months. Israeli newspapers Tuesday quoted unidentified senior officials as saying that they believe Iran’s claims are accurate and in line with Israel’s forecasts.

Last month, staff members of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, told foreign diplomats in briefings that they believed the Iranians were moving faster than expected with their small-scale enrichment efforts. They predicted that Tehran might be able to build a bomb in three years.

“If it turns out that the Iranians have been moving a heck of a lot faster than we thought, we’re going to have to consider ways to press them sooner,” said Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “If it turns out that the Iranians were making a lot of progress, and our estimates were too optimistic, then we’ve got a problem here.”

One U.S. official, however, defended the U.S. estimate, saying that Iran’s most recent claims still put it years away from being capable of building a bomb. The Iranian claims and the U.S. predictions still are “broadly consistent,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity when discussing U.S. intelligence estimates.