Obama's veepstakes

Spend a little time with Barack Obama on his wide-open vice president hunt. There are plenty of plausible candidates, and the eventual choice could easily be somebody nobody is talking about. Why the unpredictability? In part, it's because a veep search usually focuses on the runner-up in the primary, but in this case almost nobody believes the runner-up will get chosen.

But the main reason is that Obama is an unconventional candidate. He has novel strengths -- enormous appeal to the young, African Americans and some crossover Republicans -- and he also has potential weaknesses with usually solid Democratic Party constituencies: white blue-collar Democrats, women and Jews.

So Obama has to decide: A veep who fills in a weakness (like Joe Biden) or one who accentuates a strength (like Michael Bloomberg)? To make things trickier, the veep candidates with the biggest upside also carry the biggest risk.

	Appeals to	Alienates	Risk factor	Bottom line
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton D-New York	Older white women who dislike Obama but don't despise him	Independents, Republicans, crossovers, misogynists	Husband Bill buck-raking, possibly still tomcatting	Cold day in hell
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius D-Kansas	Women who aren't Clinton die-hards	Clinton die-hards who believe that any non-Hillary woman is a slap in the face	No foreign policy experience, so-so public speaker	Non-Clinton-supporting feminists probably aren't a big enough constituency
Sen. Jack Reed D-Rhode Island	Veterans, Catholics, intellectuals, foreign policy voters	Moderates? (Reed is liberal)	Low — he's a former Army Ranger and highly respected foreign policy expert	Not a bipartisan pick but lots of military/foreign policy cred; combines the demeanor of a professor with the name of an action hero
Sen. Joe Biden D-Delaware	White men, security moms, foreign policy/experience voters, fans of the verbally incontinent	Indian Americans ("You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.")	Vetted, respected, but gaffe prone (see previous)	Odds-on favorite; would make a strong foreign policy spokesman
Sen. Chuck Hagel R-Nebraska	Veterans, crossover Republicans, bipartisanship buffs	Israel supporters, low-information voters who don't want a 19th century German philosopher a heartbeat away from the presidency	How does Obama run with a right-wing Republican who disagrees with him on nearly everything?	Would be very tricky — what if Obama dies and an anti-abortion, tax-cuts-for-the-rich-loving, global-warming skeptic is suddenly president?
Gov. Tim Kaine D-Virginia	Virginians (or so it's claimed), Catholics	Nobody	No foreign policy experience, short resume	First-term governor who won on former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's coattails — a meh candidate
Sen. Claire McCaskill D-Missouri	See Kathleen Sebelius	See Kathleen Sebelius	Like Obama, a first-term senator	See Kathleen Sebelius
Sen. Jim Webb D-Virginia	Veterans, Virginians, Scots-Irish, angry white men, crossover Republicans, Southern Civil War buffs	Women, plutocrats who are ripping off the common man	Short-tempered, lone-wolf type	High-risk, high-reward choice
Former Sen. Sam Nunn D-Georgia	Georgians, moderates, conservatives, Beltway establishment types, white males in need of reassurance	Gays, liberals	Everything Nunn has ever done in this life has been about minimizing risk	Expert on nuclear proliferation, could put Georgia into play
Sen. Evan Bayh D-Indiana	Clinton supporters, moderates, insomniacs	Nobody	So un-risky that his selection would create the risk of a backlash from a bored and disappointed press corps	Low-risk, low-reward choice
Gov. Bill Richardson D-New Mexico	New Mexicans, Old Mexicans, goatee aficionados, goofballs	Nativists	Surprisingly high — Richardson is gaffe-prone and less serious than his reputation suggests	Better on paper than in reality
Former Sen. Tom Daschle D-South Dakota	White males	Nobody	Working as a lobbyist, which complicates Obama's anti-Washington theme	Better candidate for chief of staff
Gov. Brian Schweitzer D-Montana	Downscale whites, gun owners, populists	Short career in tiny state = few enemies	No foreign-policy expierence, first-term governor	Jim Webb lite?
Mayor Michael Bloomberg I-New York City	Jews, upscale independents, moderate Republicans, the vertically challenged	Populists	Little foreign policy experience, on GOP VP lists too, black guy + wealthy Jewish New Yorker might freak out Middle America	Could pour huge sums into campaign; like Webb, huge upside plus huge downside
Former Vice President Al Gore D-Tennessee	Democratic partisans, intellectuals	Republican partisans, oil, coal and auto industries	Steps on Obama's "let's not argue about the past" appeal	Has ruled out a run but might be a good way to consolidate the Democratic base
Sen. Olympia Snowe R-Maine	Women, independents, moderate Republicans	Misogynists, Clinton die-hards	Black guy + woman = too much change?	Nobody's discussing Snowe; who knows if she'd take it; but she brings a lot to the table

Jonathan Chait, a contributing editor to Opinion and a senior editor at the New Republic, is the author of "The Big Con: The True Story of How Washington Got Hoodwinked and Hijacked by Crackpot Economics."