Bush’s One-Two Punch for a California Win

President Bush hasn’t “gone Hollywood.” But in movie parlance, his visit this week to the Golden State is a preview of coming attractions -- in this case, a $200-million blockbuster called “Four More Years.”

The president’s sixth visit to California has him spending Thursday night in San Diego bunking aboard an aircraft carrier before heading north to Silicon Valley, where, presumably, he’ll discuss his proposed tax cut.

Get used to this one-two punch between now and November 2004: war and the economy. The common denominator is security -- economic security, security from threats abroad.

It’s an easy message to repeat often, as the president has done in the last few days in Ohio and Michigan -- states considered to be “in play” in 2004. And it might be this Republican president’s ticket to making inroads into California. Although many consider the state beyond his reach -- Democrats have won every presidential election here since ’92 -- the White House has clearly decided it’s winnable. After all, between 1952 and 1988, Republicans won every presidential election in California with the exception of Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in ’64. Further, from 2001 to 2003 the Democrats’ voter registration edge over Republicans has dropped from 10.8% to 9.2%, with a rise in third parties.

Add this state’s 55 electoral votes to the Republican column and George W. Bush can safely talk about a third kind of security: his own job security.

The most recent Field Poll has Bush beating a generic Democratic nominee here, 45% to 40%. Those numbers will change, of course, once the Iraq euphoria wears off and a leader emerges from the Democrats’ crowded slate -- but still, it’s a huge turnaround in a state that Bush lost by 11% in 2000.

The White House knows all this. And the Bush team is determined to make its man the first Republican to carry this state since his father did, back in 1988.

This time out, the younger Bush has two factors in his favor. First, the president may have stumbled onto a message that’s adaptable to a majority of California voters, not just select GOP enclaves. That’s been a problem for Bush and Republican emissaries before him: They couldn’t figure where to go and what to say. The war-economy-security message, on the other hand, is a universal socket. Bush can bask in the glow of the military in San Diego and, in Silicon Valley, tout a tax cut that tech leaders support. He can return to discuss bioterrorism in the Central Valley, yet also preach tolerance in diversity-rich Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The president’s second advantage: Unlike Bill Clinton and Al Gore, the Democratic nominee won’t have the luxury of stature and familiarity as an incumbent national officeholder. Instead, he will have to spend millions telling his life story. In California, that has produced mixed results. A charismatic governor from Arkansas won this way in ’92. A mirthless governor from Massachusetts did not in ’88.

While Republicans try to figure out which past theme applies to the 2004 election -- Ronald Reagan’s 1984 “Morning in America” is a current favorite -- it would seem that the Golden State is four years ahead of the curve. It’s not 1984 here. It’s 1988, and the younger Bush needs what worked for his father: a stable economy, national security as a high priority and a feckless opponent who depresses Democratic turnout.

Could Bush actually carry California? You’ll have to stay tuned for another 18 months. That’s the beauty of previews: They tell you the plot without giving away the ending.