A window for immigration reform

The number of immigrants entering the United States illegally has plummeted in tandem with the economy, with the greatest slowdown occurring between 2007 and 2009, according to a report issued Wednesday by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center. Also, the number of people apprehended at the border is down dramatically, and furthermore, an estimated 1 million illegal immigrants have left the country. But the report, coming as the immigration reform debate turns increasingly ugly, is a timely reminder of how perception lags reality.

Even as Arizona passes draconian anti-immigrant laws and prominent Republicans seek to disenfranchise American-born children of illegal immigrants, the truth is that illegal immigration has not been this low since the middle of the decade. Between 2000 and 2005, an average of 850,000 people a year entered the United States illegally, according to the report; that number fell to 300,000 in 2007 to 2009. Some states saw particularly steep declines, including Nevada, Florida and Virginia. Arizona, Colorado and Utah saw a combined decline of 130,000 illegal immigrants. The number of people entering the country today is not insignificant, but the trend is clear. The best way to characterize this period is as a lull.

Hours after the report was released, the Obama administration credited its tough enforcement measures for the decline, citing its crackdown on employers, stepped-up deportations and plentiful staffing of the Border Patrol. Analysts of migration patterns, however, say the single largest factor is probably the economy. According to the Pew researcher who wrote the report, 90% of migrants without documentation who decide to cross the border succeed. They just aren’t trying right now.

Crossing the border from Mexico has rarely been more difficult: It now requires the services of a coyote, and the price has jumped to $7,000 to as much as $10,000, depending on the departure point. The least patrolled route is to the east, but crossing those desert lands is only for the desperate. Violent drug cartels have diversified into human trafficking, adding a new danger to the journey, as the horrific massacre of 72 migrants from Central and South America in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas demonstrates. And once migrants arrive, there is little or no work. The unemployment rate for illegal immigrants is now higher than that of native-born and legal workers — a switch from the norm in the earlier part of the decade.

Congress should be using this period to negotiate a fix for the broken immigration system. Despite fewer arrivals, 11 million illegal immigrants remain in the United States, and reform is crucial. But instead of addressing current conditions, the country is awash in political rhetoric more suited to conditions in years past. It is a missed opportunity. Because as soon as the economy rebounds, so will illegal immigration.