Syria’s stubborn strongman

Syrian President Bashar Assad has rejected an Arab League plan that would have eased him out of power and laid the groundwork for elections, calling it “flagrant interference” in Syria’s internal affairs. That’s not surprising, but it’s too bad. The proposal was a sensible one that could have stopped the bloodshed. The problem is that Assad lacks sufficient incentive — at this point anyway — to comply with it.

The Arab League had already imposed sanctions on Syria, suspended the country’s membership and dispatched a team of monitors. In the latest plan, the league proposed that within two weeks a national dialogue would begin; within two months a “unity government” would be formed and would prepare for elections; and, most insulting to Assad, he would transfer power to one of his vice presidents during the transition to democracy. The plan was similar to the agreement negotiated by the Gulf Cooperation Council that led to the departure of Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The league is right: Assad must go. But unfortunately, he doesn’t see it that way. In November, he agreed to an Arab League proposal that his government stop shooting demonstrators, remove tanks from cities, release political prisoners and allow human rights groups and journalists to enter Syria. But he offered only token compliance, and the violence continued. More than 5,000 people have died in the uprising so far.

What can be done? In October, Russia and China vetoed a Western-supported U.N. Security Council resolution that would have condemned repression in Syria, but Russia may be losing patience with Assad. So a resolution clearly condemning Syria might still be a possibility, though it is unlikely that Russia would give it teeth by agreeing to language endorsing the Arab League plan or imposing sanctions. Still less likely is a Security Council decision to dispatch a peacekeeping force to Syria.

That leaves sanctions. On Monday, the European Union ratcheted up its economic and travel sanctions, extending them to 22 more Syrian officials and eight companies. Two senators are introducing legislation to toughen U.S. sanctions, though the United States has few economic dealings with Syria. U.N. sanctions, if they could be negotiated, would add pressure. But sanctions take time, and Assad made it clear this week he has no intention of going anywhere.