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Getting Kadafi to leave is Libya’s best option

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A meeting between representatives of Moammar Kadafi and a senior U.S. diplomat has not produced a breakthrough in ending Libya’s civil war and the NATO bombardment of the country. But it suggests that the possibility remains for a negotiated settlement of the conflict. Four months into the campaign against Kadafi’s regime, that option is worth exploring.

The U.S. account of the meeting was that there was no negotiation and that Jeffrey Feltman, assistant secretary of State for the Near East, simply delivered the message that Kadafi must step down. But that seeming ultimatum could in fact form the basis for an agreement that would include Kadafi’s departure and a transition between the current regime and the Transitional National Council, the rebel coalition recognized by the United States and more than 30 other nations.

A settlement seems to have been made more likely by continued bombing and rebel successes on the ground, which have put pressure on Kadafi even if they haven’t toppled him. At best, he can look forward to ruling over a fraction of Libyan territory. He also is the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, a deterrence to travel. The prospect for the dictator is a life of being holed up in his capital, hoping that North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombs won’t strike him along with “command and control” centers.

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U.S. protestations to the contrary, it makes sense for this country to explore ways in which Kadafi could give up power. Although the United Nations mandate for the no-fly zone in Libya was to protect civilians, the mission has evolved into a campaign for regime-change. (U.S. and other officials insist regime-change is part of a political, not a military, process, but that distinction is disingenuous.)

And yet, while military power has ratcheted up the pressure on Kadafi, he could hold out for a long time, subjecting his country and its people to more ravages. That’s why a negotiated settlement makes sense. Kadafi might be willing to give up power in exchange for a haven elsewhere. Such an arrangement would end the war in Libya and remove a cruel dictator.

The problem with this scenario is finding a place for Kadafi to go. That task is complicated by the International Criminal Court’s decision to accuse him of crimes against humanity. Although the indictment is defensible, it may make some countries unwilling to receive Kadafi. In an ideal world, he would both leave and be brought to justice, but both outcomes might be impossible. In this world, the cost of removing Kadafi may be sparing him from a deserved judgment. The interests of Libya’s people should come first.

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