The Resounding Choice of All but Independents

John F. Kerry capped his decisive string of Super Tuesday victories by routing John Edwards among almost every group of voters in the California Democratic primary, a Times exit poll found.

Kerry demonstrated the same strengths in his resounding California triumph that powered his victories in Tuesday’s other major contests -- a virtual sweep that drove Edwards from the presidential race.

In California, as in most contests over the last six weeks, Kerry’s success rested on his appeal to core Democrats, especially minority voters; his ability to gain support across class, gender and ideological lines, and his huge lead among voters whose top concern was fielding the strongest candidate against President Bush.

The wave propelling Kerry in California was so great that he even beat Edwards among groups whom the North Carolina senator had attracted elsewhere, such as moderates, independents and those focused on the economy, The Times exit poll found.

Yet even in California, Kerry did not run nearly as well with independents -- who were eligible to vote in the Democratic primary -- as he did among party members.

This trend was more pronounced in Tuesday’s voting in Ohio and Georgia, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International.

In that way, the results underscored Kerry’s ability to mobilize Democrats and the challenge he may face with independents as the campaign’s focus shifts to the battle against Bush.

“The story for Kerry so far is mostly one of strength,” said Elaine Kamarck, who was an advisor to 2000 Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore. But, she added, Kerry’s showing among independents “is obviously something we need to worry about.”

The Times exit poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 2,007 Democratic primary voters at 65 polling places around the state. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Beyond detailing the magnitude of Kerry’s victory, the California survey was perhaps most striking in documenting the liberal consensus on social issues among those voting in the Democratic contest.

Just over half said homosexual couples should be allowed to marry, while about three in 10 said they should be allowed to form civil unions. Only about one in six said same-sex couples should be barred from either marriage or civil unions.

That was far more support for gay unions than Democratic primary voters expressed in Ohio and Georgia, according to the Edison/Mitofsky exit polls for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and Associated Press.

In Ohio, only about one-fourth of these voters said gays should be allowed to marry, just half the level as in California. Almost four in 10 Ohio Democratic voters said they would ban marriage or civil unions for gays, more than double the California level.

In Georgia, according to exit poll results posted on the CNN website, just one in 6 backed gay marriage, and nearly half said marriages or civil unions should be banned for homosexual couples.

The Ohio survey polled 1,503 voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The Georgia poll surveyed 1,709 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Support for gay marriage also was marginal among the California voters who did not participate in the Democratic primary. Just over one-fifth of them said they supported gay marriage; about twice as many said they opposed either gay marriage or civil unions.

This could be a sign of tension ahead for Democrats, particularly with swing voters in Midwestern and states that border the South, as Bush campaigns for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriages. Kerry, while declaring that he does not support gay marriage, has staunchly opposed an effort to write a ban into the Constitution.

The California Democratic electorate also leaned left on other issues, The Times poll found. Just one-fifth said they believed the war in Iraq was justified. A majority said they favored reforms that would make it easier for illegal immigrants to become American citizens. Nearly as many said they wanted to repeal all of Bush’s tax cuts as said they wanted to rescind only those for the affluent -- the position Kerry supports.

Perhaps the best news for Kerry’s in Tuesday polling was the continuing evidence of his support from virtually every segment of the Democratic Party. Exit polls showed Kerry ran up crushing margins among registered Democrats in all four of Tuesday’s major contests: California, New York, Ohio and Georgia.

“In a multi-candidate race, nobody has ever destroyed a field as consistently as this guy has,” said Paul Maslin, the pollster for Howard Dean, the onetime front-runner who captured Vermont on Tuesday after quitting the race last month.

In California, Kerry beat Edwards by more than 3 to 1 among liberals, more than 2 to 1 among moderates and even defeated him soundly among primary voters who called themselves conservatives, The Times survey found. Kerry trounced Edwards by about 40 percentage points among both men and women, and voters with and without college educations.

Kerry won by almost 3 to 1 among whites, more than 3 to 1 among Latinos and 6 to 1 among African Americans, who gave about one-sixth of their votes to the Rev. Al Sharpton.

Gays and lesbians cast 7% of the primary vote, about as large a share as African Americans, and backed Kerry over Edwards by more than 2 to 1, with about one-seventh opting for Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio.

As in most of his earlier wins, Kerry ran far ahead among California voters who said the personal qualities they prized most in a candidate was experience, strength of leadership and the ability to beat Bush in November.

About 30% of voters cited electability as one of the qualities most important to them; they preferred Kerry over Edwards by a margin of about 6 to 1. Kerry beat Edwards by more than 4 to 1 among voters who placed the greatest priority on the candidates’ leadership qualities.

Kerry also won handily in California among voters who cited empathy as one of the personal qualities most important to them. In many earlier states, those voters have been among Edwards’ strongest groups; even amid Kerry’s sweep on Tuesday, Edwards carried them in Georgia and in Ohio, the exit polling found.

Over half of the California Democratic voters picked the economy when offered the chance to identify two issues of greatest concern to them. Edwards had run best among voters focused on the economy in several earlier states. But in California, those voters backed Kerry over Edwards by almost 3 to 1.

The next two most important issues for the California voters were education (cited by a third) and healthcare (picked by just under a fifth). Kerry beat Edwards by nearly 4 to 1 among the first group, and about 3 to 1 with the second.

One last finding underscores the breadth of Kerry’s triumph in the state. During the two weeks between the Feb. 17 Wisconsin primary and last night’s 10 contests, Edwards drew his sharpest contrast with Kerry over trade. Lashing Kerry for supporting the North American Free Trade Agreement, Edwards pledged to take a tougher line in future trade deals.

That message found receptive ears. Despite the importance of overseas markets to California interests such as agriculture and Silicon Valley, more than three-fifths of primary voters said they believed free trade cost the state more jobs than it created -- a number nearly as high as the percentage in Ohio, according to the exit polling.

But Kerry still beat Edwards among voters in California skeptical of trade by more than 2 to 1. Indeed, Kerry even carried those voters in Ohio as well (though by a smaller margin), the exit polling found. That suggests Kerry promises to pursue tough labor and environmental standards in future trade agreements -- and his endorsement from organized labor -- blunted Edwards’ criticism of his vote for NAFTA.

Kerry’s performance Tuesday has party strategists anticipating the general election with increasing confidence.

Maslin, the former Dean pollster, says apart from President Clinton during his reelection campaign, “Going back to Jimmy Carter in 1976, I can’t think of a Democrat who is in this good shape this early.”

In his virtually uninterrupted race to the nomination, Kerry has indeed demonstrated grit, resilience and energy, while unifying Democratic voters in general election polls far earlier than most previous nominees. But the key word in Maslin’s assessment may be: early.

For months, Kerry and the Democrats have framed their case against Bush without a systematic response from the White House. But today, the Bush reelection campaign will screen for reporters its first television commercials, beginning an advertising offensive likely to continue at a high level for a long time.

Bush’s efforts to sell his own record, and raise questions about Kerry’s, could test the Democratic nominee far more severely than anything he has faced in an unusually decorous Democratic contest. Having scaled this summit with impressive speed, Kerry now stands at the base of a much steeper climb.

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California exit poll

What you liked most about your candidate for president today+

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Has strong qualities of leadership 33% 75% 17% Can win in November 30 84% 14% Can bring needed change 26% 66% 20% Cares about people like me 23% 56% 26%

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Issues, if any, that were most important in deciding how to vote for your candidate for president today++

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Economy/jobs 55% 65% 23% Education 33% 65% 17% Healthcare 17% 62% 21% Balancing the budget 16% 66% 20% World affairs 15% 67% 17% Situation in Iraq 14% 56% 19%

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When you made up your mind to vote for your candidate for president

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Today 13% 43% 28% Over the weekend 10% 50% 36% Last week 15% 54% 33% Before 62% 69% 16%

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Overall, your opinion of U.S. trade with other countries

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Creates more jobs in California 27% 65% 20% Takes more jobs away from California 63% 60% 23% Has no effect on jobs in California 10% 64% 19%

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Your opinion on making it easier for illegal immigrants to become U.S. citizens

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Favor strongly 24% 58% 18% Favor somewhat 31% 63% 22% Oppose somewhat 21% 63% 24% Oppose strongly 24% 61% 25%

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Your position on President Bush’s tax cuts

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Repeal all of Bush’s tax cuts 41% 64% 18% Repeal Bush’s tax cuts for wealthy families only 46% 62% 22% Don’t repeal any of Bush’s tax cuts 13% 49% 31%

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Statement that comes closest to your view on same-sex relationships

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Same-sex couples should be allowed to legally marry 55% 61% 19% Same-sex couples should be allowed to legally form civil unions 28% 60% 29% Neither 17% 67% 20%

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The situation in Iraq was

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Worth going to war over 21% 54% 29% Not worth going to war over 79% 63% 20%

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+ Voters were allowed up to three replies. The top four responses are shown.

++ Voters were allowed up to two replies. The top six responses are shown.

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Based on preliminary exit poll results. Numbers may not total 100% because some answer categories and candidates are not shown.

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How the poll was conducted: The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 3,536 primary voters who cast ballots in California, including 2,007 who voted in the Democratic primary, as they exited 65 polling places across the state. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past primary elections. The survey was a self-administered, confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for California democratic primary voters is plus or minus 2 percentage points. For some subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Fieldwork for this study was conducted by Davis Research of Calabasas, Calif.

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Ohio exit poll

When you decided how to vote in the presidential primary

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Today 16% 48% 34% In the last three days 11% 43% 44% In the last week 15% 43% 47% Before 58% 57% 29%

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Candidate quality that mattered most to you in deciding how to vote today+

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Can defeat George W. Bush 31% 70% 24% Stands up for what he believes 20% 45% 30% Cares about people like me 17% 40% 46% Has a positive message 14% 42% 47%

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Issue that mattered most to you in deciding how to vote today

*--* % of all % of voters for Democratic top candidates primary voters Kerry Edwards Economy/jobs 42% 54% 36% Taxes 12% 46% 38% Education 10% 48% 35% Healthcare/Medicare 17% 53% 32% Iraq war 9% 57% 24% National security/terrorism 3% 49% 37%

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+Top four responses shown

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Based on preliminary exit poll results. Numbers may not total 100% because some answer categories are not shown.

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How the poll was conducted: The National Election Pool Survey contacted voters in the Ohio Democratic primary as they exited their polling places Tuesday. The survey includes 1,503 voters in 40 precincts. Interviews were conducted using a confidential, self-administered questionnaire. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for some subgroups, the margin could be somewhat higher. The survey was conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, a cooperative arrangement among ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, Cable News Network, Fox News and NBC News.

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Source: National Election Pool Survey