Barack Obama leads John McCain in 4 crucial states, polls find

Democrat Barack Obama leads likely Republican presidential rival John McCain by five to 17 percentage points in four key states, including one captured by the GOP in 2004, according to polls released this morning.

The polls, by Quinnipiac University in partnership with the Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com, show that Obama seems to be building a coalition of women, minorities and younger voters.

Obama leads McCain by 49% to 44% in Colorado; 48% to 42% in Michigan; 54% to 37% in Minnesota; and 52% to 39% in Wisconsin.

The states represent 46 electoral votes, 37 of which went to Democratic candidate John Kerry in 2004. Colorado’s nine electoral votes went to George W. Bush.

Today’s polls continue a string of good news for Obama this week as several national polls show him running ahead of McCain by growing pluralities. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed Obama up by 12 points.

But pollsters caution that early polls are just that – a snapshot of public opinion early in the race. The candidates won’t even be formally nominated until their conventions at the end of summer.

“November can’t get here soon enough for Sen. Barack Obama,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement posted on the university’s website. “He has a lead everywhere, and if nothing changes between now and November he will make history.

“But Sen. Obama should not be picking out the drapes for the Oval Office just yet. His lead nationally, and double digits in some key states, is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign,” Brown stated.

Obama’s support among minorities and the young is not surprising since it is the heart of the alliance that he built during the primary battles against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The polls also show McCain running well among whites in Colorado and Michigan. Obama is running strongly, ahead by eight to 21 percentage points, among independent voters in the four states.

Democrats in the polls said they would like Obama to pick Clinton as his running mate, but voters overall reject the idea, a finding similar to other polls.

Colorado is one of several western states won by President Bush, but where Democrats are hoping that Obama can make a difference.

“Democrats say Colorado is one of the states most likely to turn from red to blue in 2008, and these numbers certainly support that view,” Brown said.

The polls shows that voters believe the economy is the major issue. Obama today will campaign on economic issues at a summit of educational and industrial leaders meeting at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pa.

And in a move expected after Clinton ended her presidential campaign, the AFL-CIO today endorsed Obama for president.

McCain will hold a town hall meeting in Cincinnati, then campaign in elsewhere in Ohio.

 michael.muskal@latimes.com