February Contests Shape Up as Pivotal

While Howard Dean’s rivals are focusing almost entirely on the first several states that vote in the Democratic presidential race, the former Vermont governor appears to be building enough strength in the next wave of contests that he could virtually clinch the nomination by mid-February, even if he stumbles early.

With Dean’s opponents forced to concentrate their efforts on Iowa and New Hampshire -- or, at most, the seven predominantly Southern and Western states that vote on Feb. 3 -- the front-runner’s emerging advantage in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Maine and Washington that follow with primaries or caucuses later in February could provide him a formidable firewall against any early reversals.

Even if Dean’s opponents nick him in more moderate states, such as South Carolina and Oklahoma, that hold primaries Feb. 3, most analysts agree they must prevent him from dominating the mid-February contests. Otherwise, Dean could establish an insurmountable advantage heading into the 10-state showdown March 2, which includes primaries in delegate-rich California and New York.

“I don’t think you can win on Feb. 3 and not win again until March 2,” said Nick Baldick, campaign manager for Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. “You have to have a state somewhere in there where you can go win.”

All of Dean’s rivals are hoping his support in the mid-February states will erode if he fails to meet expectations in the initial contests.

“Anyone who thinks they are locking down votes now is crazy,” said Tad Devine, a veteran Democratic strategist advising Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry.

“The dynamic of the process is going to affect the results of this campaign more than anything individual campaigns do, such as their advertising.”

But unless Dean unexpectedly collapses through the first rounds of voting, the calendar for mid-February points toward potentially decisive faceoffs between him and whichever candidates emerge as his main competitors.

For instance, if Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Dean are the leading candidates after Feb. 3, the Michigan caucuses on Feb. 7 should prove a pivotal event. If Edwards rises into contention by doing well on Feb. 3, the Virginia primary on Feb. 10 is likely to prove crucial. And if the early rounds leave Dean and retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark or Kerry as the strongest candidates, the Wisconsin primary on Feb. 17 could allow Dean to deliver a knockout blow.

The post-Feb. 3 calendar creates a challenge for the Democrats chasing Dean similar to the dilemma that confronted Al Gore during his first presidential campaign in 1988.

In that race, Gore downplayed the starting contests in Iowa and New Hampshire to stress the predominantly Southern states that voted on Super Tuesday in March. Gore won five states that day. But he was unable to consolidate that breakthrough with wins in any of the Northern and Midwestern states that followed and faded from contention.

Dean’s rivals are in a similar position. Gephardt and Kerry are trying to slow Dean’s momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire. But Dean’s rivals mostly are hoping to derail him in several of the states that vote on Feb. 3.

Yet, like Gore in 1988, even if they succeed they probably will find it difficult to sustain viable candidacies unless they can stop Dean in the contests that follow in the next two weeks. Among the Democratic contenders, only Dean has had the financial and organizational resources to mount substantial efforts in virtually all of those mid-February states.

Dean is considered the front-runner in five of those states (primaries in Virginia and Wisconsin and caucuses in Michigan, Washington and Maine), competitive in two others (caucuses in Nevada and the District of Columbia), and facing an uphill challenge only in Tennessee -- though Gore’s recent endorsement may strengthen his position there.

“Everyone is trying to beat us in Oklahoma and South Carolina; we’ll see how they do on Feb. 3,” said Paul Maslin, Dean’s pollster. “But even if someone does win, if we beat them in Maine and Michigan and Washington, they are in deep trouble.... If you’ve won Oklahoma and Tennessee alone, do you have a candidacy on Feb. 17?”

Apart perhaps from caucuses in Washington on Feb. 7 and Maine on Feb. 8 -- where Dean is viewed as a prohibitive favorite -- his rivals have conceded none of the other mid-February contests. And on paper, most of these races offer opportunities for the other Democrats.

In polls of Democrats, Dean has generally run best with college-educated voters attracted to his liberal positions on foreign policy and most social issues. That’s been a huge benefit for him in New Hampshire, where a majority of Democratic voters have college degrees, as well as in university towns like Ann Arbor, Mich., and Madison, Wis.

But pollsters say voters without a college education, who are often culturally conservative, are likely to cast a majority of ballots in Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia; college graduates will almost certainly be a minority in the Tennessee primary as well. And rural Democrats -- who tend toward more conservative views than many in their party -- will be a major factor in the Tennessee and Virginia primaries.

Still, Dean enjoys significant advantages in many of the mid-February contests. His fundraising success in 2003 allowed him to open offices in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Washington and Maine last summer, long before most of his opponents.

Gephardt, for instance, has had full-time staff in Michigan only since November, and is hiring coordinators for Wisconsin, Virginia and Tennessee this week.

Recent polls gave Dean the lead in Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin -- an advantage likely to swell if he wins New Hampshire’s Jan. 27 primary. He’s stockpiling endorsements from prominent politicians such as Rep. Robert C. Scott, an African American leader in Virginia. And Dean’s continuing fundraising success could allow him to outspend his rivals (with Clark the possible exception) over the next six weeks across the sprawling battlefield.

“We think we can raise $10 [million] or $15 [million] or $20 million before you get to Washington and Michigan, because of the way our grass roots responds,” said Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager.

Although Clark isn’t mounting major campaigns in as many states, he seems the only other contender on track to broadly challenge Dean’s effort in the mid-February contests. Clark, whose campaign raised an estimated $10 million in the final three months of 2003, is running television ads in Tennessee and plans to soon air spots in Virginia and Wisconsin. His campaign insists he will raise enough money -- a goal of $10 million through this year’s first three months -- to remain on the air in those states through the day they vote.

Kerry also has offices in several of these states but has been forced to concentrate his time, money and staff on Iowa and New Hampshire, where weak showings could doom his campaign.

Edwards and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut have devoted relatively few resources to states voting shortly after Feb. 3, though Edwards has had staff organizing in parts of Virginia and Tennessee since the fall.

If Edwards survives the early contests, he would likely focus on those two states and Wisconsin. Lieberman’s camp has its eye on the same trio and the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 14.

Dean’s stops in Wisconsin and Michigan last week underscored the challenge his rivals likely will face in the mid-February contests. When Clark entered the race last September, a poll by the University of Wisconsin showed him leading Dean in the state, 18% to 13%.

But a mid-December survey by the university showed Dean surging to 33% in Wisconsin, with Lieberman and Clark essentially tied for second place, more than 20 percentage points behind him.

“Anything could happen ... but [Dean] is in very strong shape,” said Kenneth M. Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who conducted the poll.

That strength was visible in the crowd that overflowed a high school gymnasium when Dean visited Green Bay last week. Just as promising for Dean was the effusive praise he received from James Doyle, the state’s Democratic governor, who stood on stage with him (both wore Green Bay Packers caps) and stopped just inches short of a formal endorsement.

“Clearly, Howard Dean has really captured the energy in this race, and the momentum is really building for him,” Doyle told reporters.

The vibrations were as positive when Dean arrived in Detroit later that day. Most encouraging for Dean -- who began the race with few connections in the black community -- was the large number of African American leaders who turned out for his speech, and later a private meeting.

“Dean is the only one I see making inroads into the community,” said Wayne County Commissioner Keith D. Williams, an African American. Williams’ assessment was underscored when Democratic Rep. John Conyers Jr., who has represented a Detroit-based district since 1965, endorsed Dean after his speech.

Dean faces a substantial challenge in Michigan from Gephardt. The Missourian’s campaign manager, Steve Murphy, terms the state “absolutely critical” to their hopes of winning the nomination, even if Gephardt wins the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19.

Gephardt’s longtime skepticism of free trade has won him support from enough blue-collar unions in the state, led by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, to make him a viable competitor to Dean.

But Gephardt has been hurt by his inability to secure an endorsement from the state’s most powerful union, the United Auto Workers. The union appears reluctant to choose sides.

“We believe we have very strong support among auto workers, and we are disappointed and somewhat perplexed they have not made a decision to endorse Dick Gephardt,” Murphy said.

The Michigan contest is unique among the post-Feb. 3 states because it has already begun.

Under the state party’s early voting program, local Democrats were allowed to request ballots starting on New Year’s Day; they can vote by mail or over the Internet through Feb. 7.

That process has put a premium on early organization, deepening the advantages over the rest of the field for Gephardt and especially Dean, who has by far the largest staff in the state.