Democrats’ internal polling rings of political ‘triage’

Amid predictions of a grim political reality for Democrats and talk of political “triage,” Democratic campaigns have released a series of internal polls that show them well-positioned in seats that Republicans must win if they are to, in fact, win the House back.

Here are the findings:

-- In Alabama’s 2nd District, Rep. Bobby Bright leads challenger Martha Roby 52% to 43%.

-- In North Carolina’s 8th District, Rep. Larry Kissell leads Republican Harold Johnson 48% to 36%.

-- In Virginia’s 2nd District, Rep. Tom Perriello trails state Sen. Robert Hurt by two points, within the margin of error.

-- In New York’s 24th District, Rep. Mike Arcuri leads Richard Hanna 50% to 37%.

-- And in South Dakota’s at-large district, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin leads Kristi Noem 50% to 39%.

Additionally, three more Democratic campaigns released their own polls. In the Republican-held 10th District of Illinois, Democrat Dan Seals leads Republican Bob Dold 49% to 36%. In Mississippi’s 1st District, Democratic Rep. Travis Childers leads state Sen. Alan Nunnelee 46% to 41%. And in Pennsylvania’s 4th District, Rep. Jason Altmire leads challenger Keith Rothfus 51% to 24%.

The Cook Political Report ranks all but two of these races as toss-ups; the Alabama race is considered “Leans Democratic,” while Altmire in Pennsylvania represents a “Likely Democratic” district.

The traditional caveats apply with these surveys, and in at least one case public polling finds radically different numbers. Most notably, a SurveyUSA poll in Virginia’s 2nd District found Perriello trailing by 26 points. But the decline of reliable independent data makes these snapshots noteworthy.

Releasing these polls is intended in part to blunt reports that the party is ready to cast off embattled incumbents and shift resources to newly competitive districts in an effort to stem the bleeding. Reacting to a piece in this weekend’s New York Times, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen said the committee remains “heavily invested” in seats listed as victims of political triage.

“In each campaign mentioned, the DCCC has provided and continues to provide support for field operations and other key campaign activities,” he said.